Low-Ownership Starters for Sunday (9/24)

Continuing our series of looking at widely available starters who might be worth a stream down the stretch, here is a look at Sunday. Tough slate with a general lack of really intriguing arms and then some of the ones who are appealing have to face very difficult matchups. These are ranked in order of how much I like them:

Luiz Gohara, ATL (4%) v. PHI (Pivetta)

He walked four in four during his MLB debut, but he’s been walk-free in his last two starts – both against Washington – allowing five earned in 12.3 IP with 10 K. Facing Texas and then Washington twice to open your MLB career is brutal, so this will be his best matchup by far. The Phillies are 27th in wOBA against lefties with a .308 mark. You might want to hang onto him for next week at Miami if this goes well.

Tyler Skaggs, LAA (6%) at HOU (McHugh)

There should be a pretty stable floor here, but it’s a shame to waste a solid streamer on such a brutal matchup. Skaggs did drop seven shutout innings on the Astros back on September 13th in LA, but it was a 5 IP/4 ER mediocre outing against them on August 26th, also in LA. One aspect working in his favor is that the Astros are worse against lefties at home. They have an .370 road wOBA that slots 2nd behind the Mets (?!), but drop to 12th with a .342 at Minute Maid.

Chris Stratton, SF (10%) at LAD (Kershaw)

This is one of the intriguing guys stuck in a bad matchup both in terms of offense and opposing starter. Since rejoining the rotation on August 5th, Stratton hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his six starts (well, seven starts, but he was rained out of a home start v. these Dodgers back on 9/11), going at least 6 IP in four of them. He survived the other two despite leaving early (5 IP/2 ER v. ARI, 4 IP/3 ER at COL). If you’re not chasing Wins, this could be your start. The Dodgers are 28th in AVG against righties in the second half (.239) and 20th against righty groundballs for the year (.240). Stratton’s 27% FB rate would be tied at 6th-lowest with Zach Davies if he had the qualified innings total.

Dillon Peters, MIA (11%) at ARI (Corbin)

After three solid starts to open his MLB career, Peters was ripped his last time out by Milwaukee, allowing 8 ER in just 3.7 IP (he did fan 4, though). A trip to Arizona is always a little scary and the numbers back it up as they sit 9th in home OPS v. lefties (.347). However, they are just 23rd against lefty groundballs and Peters is more severe than Stratton with a 63% GB rate and 3.2 GB/FB ratio. His last time out showed us the risk, but his first three starts outlined the upside (2.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 18 K in 18 IP).

Edit: It looks like Dan Straily is getting this start now. Straily might not be available, but if he is, I think he slots here or maybe even below Perez. He’s not good on the road (5.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) despite a strong 3.9 K/BB ratio. Generally, I’d say the positive skills could turn the trend on the weak ERA, but facing Arizona says otherwise. They have the best home wOBA against righties at .376 and succeed via the homer, which is Straily’s biggest issue on the road (1.9 HR/9).

Martin Perez, TEX (13%) at OAK (Cotton)

Perez has his duds from time-to-time, but he’s generally around a baseline quality start. He has 15 of ‘em and then another six starts that are an inning or less shy of the 6 IP/3 ER threshold. In short, he likely won’t kill you. The upside isn’t great, but there is some and four of his six 7+ IP outings have come on the road so maybe the Oakland Coliseum has a gem in store for us.

Jaime Garcia, NYY (10%) at TOR (Stroman)

Garcia hasn’t gone six innings in any of his seven starts with the Yankees. A big part of that was the 44 base runners in his first five starts (24.7 IP), including at least 3 BB in each. He has allowed just 2 ER in his last three starts combined with a 1.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 18 K in 15.3 IP. The Blue Jays are just 20th in wOBA against righties, but their 10% BB is 6th which could give them an edge against Garcia. Add in the low IP totals making a win more difficult (let alone the fact that the opposing SP is Toronto’s best) and it’s tough to feel great about this one.

John Gant, STL (0%) at PIT (Taillon)

Gant made seven starts for the Braves last year and wasn’t terrible with a 4.80 ERA and 1.50 WHIP – OK, “not terrible” in the realm of widely available streamers. He did fan 29 in the 30 IP of work, though. This Pirates team is ripe for the picking with a .303 wOBA against righties in the second half that is tied for last with the Tampa Bay Rays. This might be one of the sneakier moves since he’s probably not on many radars and gets such a nice matchup. Having not topped 30 pitches in any outing this month could limit him some, but he started all year in the minors so he should be good for at least 75-80 pitches.

Nick Pivetta, PHI (2%) at ATL (Gohara)

Pivetta is a huge gamble due to his volatility. Just look at his last nine by ER: 8, 5, 3, 6, 2, 1, 6, 7, and 2. He did strike out 46 in the 40.7 IP making up those starts, but if you’re trying to protect ratios on any level, then I just can’t see running Pivetta out there. His outing against the Braves are actually the 1 ER game in that nine start run and they sit just 25th in wOBA against righties, but I think his volatile nature just worries me.

Sam Gaviglio, KC (2%) at CWS (Giolito)

He’s made two solid starts with the Royals, including a 5 IP/2 ER/5 K one against the White Sox. The White Sox are 27th in wOBA against righties this year (.318) with the 7th-highest strikeout rate (23.7%). I originally thought I’d be way down on him, but a deeper look and thinner slate of potentials has him looking somewhat interesting. Don’t you just love these glowing streamer endrosements? “Somewhat interesting”, raves Paul Sporer of Fangraphs …

Edit: Ian Kennedy is in for KC –

Ian Kennedy is due to arrive here in Chicago today. He will pitch Sunday. Jakob Junis will pitch Monday in New York.

— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) September 23, 2017

I would treat him as a lesser version of Straily if he’s available. The White Sox have popped him in two of the three outings against them and he’s allowed at least 1 HR in each of his last 8 starts (12 HR in all).

Jackson Stephens, CIN (1%) v. BOS (Fister)

This dude out here with two last names. Stephens has two starts bookending three relief appearances, though the first start was back in July and the rest has come in September. The bottom line numbers aren’t bad except for the fact that his 4 HR came in the two starts (2 in each). Maybe the Red Sox won’t take advantage of his HR tendencies. They’ve been light on power all year, including a .151 ISO against righties that sits 27th in the league.

Jharel Cotton, OAK (4%) at TEX (Perez)

A groin issue has put this start in doubt for Cotton so stay tuned on the news there if you choose to use him. But maybe just don’t do that. He has a 6.85 ERA in the second half thanks in large part to 56 hits in 47.3 IP. He has allowed at least 1 HR in eight of the nine starts and 2+ HRs in four of ‘em.

German Marquez, Collin McHugh, Jameson Taillon, and Doug Fister have lower-than-expected roster rates at ESPN so make sure you check your waivers. I’d take them in that order with a focus on Marquez, who is at the Padres.