It’s the season’s end. Good luck to everyone and hopefully I can help a few teams win their titles. Now, if there ever was a time to second guess me, it’s this weekend. Teams are limiting their pitcher innings and changing starters, especially the playoff-bound teams. Do a bit of fact checking before picking anyone up.

Note: All players have a 10% or less Yahoo! ownership.

Saturday

Luke Sims (5% owned) at Marlins (Odrisamer Despaigne)

If you’re streaming just for Wins, Sims is a perfectly decent option. He’s pitching good enough to squeak out a Win, especially against a beatable Miami team. His strikeouts are reasonable at ~7 K/9. His ERA and WHIP are likely to be high but it’s just one game.

Read the rest of this entry »

Only four days of games left in the regular season! Two of my three leagues are super close at the top and I’m lucky enough to be part of what’s sure to be a nail biting finish. So these pitching performances are of paramount importance. Let’s see who’s slated to pitch on Friday.

Read the rest of this entry »

The great, powerful, and unbelievably handsome Justin of Friends With Fantasy Benefits (and of course, RotoGraphs) is hosting four early mock drafts. I am participating in one of them.

All 4 #2EarlyMock drafts are running! https://t.co/F8MVltwVHThttps://t.co/voN0u0qhxohttps://t.co/Zs0dRbc3ZQhttps://t.co/b4kc4XbBk5

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) September 21, 2017

In each draft, the following four pitchers went first without exception.

Last season in NFBC drafts, these four were included with the first six pitchers drafted on average. While Kershaw and Scherzer were 1st and 2nd in each draft, Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard were taken, on average, before Chris Sale and Corey Kluber. Both Bumgarner (bruised ribs, strained shoulder) and Syndergaard (torn lat muscle) missed most of the 2017 season. Because of their current injuries and unknown future health, their ADP has fallen in these four mocks.

The trepidation about owning them is understandable but owners still need to value the pair. It’s not going to be easy.

Read the rest of this entry »

Miguel Gonzalez (CBS 26% Owned) vs OAK (Sean Manaea)

There was a time in late August when Gonzalez was being added in leagues and I wondered why. Oh, of course, it was because he had allowed just four earned runs over four starts for a sparkling 1.29 ERA. Nevermind the fact was a typical for him 4.64, suggesting his skills were as terrible as always. Naturally, he proceeded to allow 14 runs over his next three starts, including a seven run implosion. Anyhow, it’s a good matchup, but he owns one of the worst career skill sets around and strikes out no one. I would never allow him to come near my team, let alone my active roster.

Bud Norris (23%) at CHW (Dylan Covey)

Making just his second “start” of the season, Norris pitched just 3.1 innings last Saturday. It’s doubtful he’d last long enough to make much of a difference or qualify for a win and that’s assuming he actually pitches well enough to be in line for one. No need to stream him.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ownership percentages are from CBS leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tuesday’s lowly owned starters are a sad lot. Some decent arms have their ownership up like Daniel Mengden and Tyler Anderson. It’s like “Aces and Duds” today.

Just eyeballing some names, I may hold off and use some the guys going Wednesday (e.g. Andriese, Ynoa, Leiter)

Rafael Montero (3% owned) vs Atlanta (R.A. Dickey)

Montero is a perfectly good option for a team needing just strikeouts and Wins and doesn’t care about their ERA and WHIP. The game against Atlanta is winnable and Montero is averaging 8.6 K/9 as a starter. His value gets destroyed by the 5.0 BB/9 and the problem it causes to WHIP and ERA.
Read the rest of this entry »

We’ll be writing each day up again like last week, but here’s a quick primer on the pitching slate next week for possibly available arms.

*all stats cited for the 2nd half unless otherwise noted

Lefty

Tyler Anderson v. MIA – It is in Coors, but MIA has the 4th-worst wOBA v. lefties (.304) in the second half thanks to just a .126 ISO.

Brent Suter v. CIN – CIN has the 26th wOBA v. lefties (.305).

Read the rest of this entry »

Continuing our series of looking at widely available starters who might be worth a stream down the stretch, here is a look at Sunday. Tough slate with a general lack of really intriguing arms and then some of the ones who are appealing have to face very difficult matchups. These are ranked in order of how much I like them:

Luiz Gohara, ATL (4%) v. PHI (Pivetta)

He walked four in four during his MLB debut, but he’s been walk-free in his last two starts – both against Washington – allowing five earned in 12.3 IP with 10 K. Facing Texas and then Washington twice to open your MLB career is brutal, so this will be his best matchup by far. The Phillies are 27th in wOBA against lefties with a .308 mark. You might want to hang onto him for next week at Miami if this goes well.

Read the rest of this entry »

Quite a few aces (and Matt Harvey) are throwing on Saturday so owners may not have many open slots but here are some lowly owned starters. While I normally limit my ownership rate to 10%, I bumped it up to increase the options.

Henderson Alvarez (1% owned) vs Braves (Julio Teheran)

Starting Alvarez is like playing Russian roulette with five chambers filled. It may kind of possibly end up good, but likely not. The basic issue is that it’s about impossible to have a feel for his talent level with spotty starts since coming back from shoulder surgery. Instead of trying to make sense of the rehab starts, I will let Steamer and Zips do the work. They put him with a near 5.00 ERA and 5.5 K/9. If those stats along with a possible Win, if he can make it five innings, against Teheran and the Braves are usable, start him.

Read the rest of this entry »

Continuing my Quick Looks series, today looks at a pair of NL East arm…

Mark Leiter

It’s like the 26-year-old righty didn’t exist before this season. I like to look at previous reports on popup guys to see what has changed. I was able to find one report on him at 2080baseball.com.

“A senior sign out of New Jersey Institute of Technology, he certainly got on some radars when he posted a 20-strikeout game his senior year before being drafted by his favorite hometown team, the Phillies. He doesn’t have pure “stuff” – his fastball barely touches 90 – but he’s a smart pitcher who works with what he has and has posted a 3.37 career ERA in 95 games, 69 of them starts, over 445 2/3 innings. He underwent shoulder surgery prior to the 2016 season but enjoyed a strong campaign that summer and now gets his call-up just a few games into his Triple-A debut.”

It’s not exciting but it’s at least a starting point. Now to move onto the starts I watched. There are no good camera angles for any of his starts. The best was against the Mets (9/4) when he lasted just three innings (video from it). Also, I watch his last start at home (9/15) against Oakland to see if anything changed.

Read the rest of this entry »