Starting Pitcher Rankings Update – August

Here is my latest starting pitcher rankings update! Keep in mind that this is a narrower focus and that’s why I did monthly updates during the season. I always stressed the narrow focus over “rest of season”, but obviously we’re at a point where those are essentially one in the same. I’m not sure if I’ll do another full update in September or not, but I will be writing about pitching all month including pieces of most favorable schedules and September call-ups as well as the continued Pros & Cons and Pitcher Spotlight (from Nick & myself) pieces.

Please leave your questions and comments below!

Edit: updated Dallas Keuchel since he’s not hurt anymore!

Previous Updates:

• March
• May
• June
• July

I adjusted the tiers a bit, adding a couple for some clarity. As always, pay more attention to the tier than the ranking number. Even as I post this, I see a couple 1-2 spot tweaks I could reasonably make, but they don’t change anything in terms of how I feel about either pitcher, so it’s just that crucial. Obviously tier changes would be something, but leapfrogging Rich Hill over the two Milwaukee studs isn’t substantial.

The tiers are as follows:

Fantasy Aces – I basically cut up the Must-Start tier into two to highlight the true studs as fantasy aces. You don’t ever consider benching these guys and they’d have to go on a month-long lull to really consider moving out of this tier.

Must Start – These are now the must-starts who aren’t necessarily among the flat-out best pitchers, but you can’t bench them. Trying to pick their rough spots is a guessing game with no real accuracy. They will have blowups, but they are just as likely against a poor team as they are in a dangerous ballpark against a great offense. Don’t overthink it, just start them – yes, even in Coors Field. I do realize as we come down the stretch, your situations will dictate some different usage patterns and create cases where it might be worth sitting someone in this tier. Obviously, you know your situation better than I do, so remember that these are guidelines.

Usually Start – If “No Coors Field” is 30/70 with the MS group, it’s more like 60/40 or 70/30 with this group. You need a reason not to start them right now in most formats. You might feel like you can spot them properly, but we’re just not that precise in identifying when a solid arm will falter. These guys are good enough to thwart any opponent even on something less than their best day.

Spot Start (Hold) / Spot Start (Stream) – Flawed talents. A lot of these guys are on the cusp of or have been in the Usually Start tier, but currently you’re looking to curate their starts a bit where you can. They could also be a US tier arm here temporarily. Pay very close attention to gamelogs of pitchers, get a feel for how they arrived at their bottom line numbers. Not all ERAs are created equally and that’s why it’s not a talent gauge at all. I split the spot starters into two groups with one being those arms you bounce between your lineup and reserve and the others being pure streamers that you pick up for a specific week and move on.

Could Start – I know many of you are dealing with some brutal pitching staff conditions right now after drafting a rotation you thought would be a strength, so you might find yourself in this tier a little more than you’d like. There is some talent to be and plucking the right two-start week could really set you up. This is essentially the Spot Star tier for single leagues or super-deep mixers (16+ teams).

Don’t Start – You don’t want to be here. This is when you start looking at middle relievers as the better option. You’ll see what I mean.

Injured – I find it hard/worthless to rank injured guys. I just think the outlook on injured players varies so much person-to-person that you can’t really use an injured player’s ranking for anything. I will identify the tier I’d put the injured guy in when healthy, though, and I also added a ballpark ranking of where they’d slot upon return.