Though the leaguewide HR/FB rate is down (likely due in part to the cold weather), it’s clear that this fly ball revolution is here to stay. That’s bad news for fly ball pitchers, because now more of their fly balls are going to jump over the wall for a home run. The best way to keep your HR/9 rate in check is by inducing grounders. So let’s check in on the early starting pitcher ground ball rate surgers.
Why wait for another edition of the Sporer Report? Y’all seemed to enjoy it and even commented some names you’d like to see covered so I’ve included a couple of those. Sorry about the GIFs in yesterday’s being wonky for some. I didn’t realize that host was ad-laden. Today’s won’t be so cumbersome.
Not included: Jakob Junis
The reason is two-fold. One is that I already dropped some thoughts on him just before the season started and two is that Jeff Sullivan covered him in detail today. I’m obviously pleased with the start he had on Tuesday and still considering him one to watch and at least stream in most formats.
Tyler Mahle (68% owned at FanTrax)
I watched his game for the 2nd when he beat the Cubs by going 6 IP, 0 Runs, and 7 K’s. Mahle and the opposing pitcher, Tyler Chatwood, did have generous wide strike zone to work with.
It’s not easy to get strikeouts when you don’t get batters to swing much. It’s even more difficult when you avoid the strike zone.
Over the previous three years, a qualified starting pitcher has induced swings at a rate lower than 44.0 percent over the course of a season only 23 times. Of those, only Trevor Bauer, Jose Quintana and Tyson Ross have had a single season with a strikeout rate of at least 24.0 percent, and none has had more than one season with a rate that high. By contrast, there were only seven occurrences of a strikeout rate below 24.0 percent among the 23 pitcher-seasons with the highest swing rates over the same period. Bauer and Quintana both elevated their K-rates last season, and they were able to do that partly because they located their pitches in the strike zone at near-normal rates of 44.4 and 44.8 percent rates, respectively. Ross registered a 25.8 percent K-rate in 2015, even though he induced swings infrequently and displayed subpar control. However, no qualified starter was better than Ross at getting whiffs on pitches outside the strike zone that season.
Read the rest of this entry »
I’ve been trying to find a way to collect a bunch of my thoughts that aren’t quite worth their own article, but often extend beyond a tweet dating back to last year. So this will be a work in progress and I’m open to feedback on what y’all like and don’t as I try out different things here. It’s always going to be more pitching-focused, but it won’t be limited to just the mound. If you’ve followed my writing for a certain amount of time, you’ve no doubt seen me use the “Sporer Report” title for other columns.
It’s not that I think it’s some great name or anything (I’m not that vain); it’s just a general name that doesn’t limit the column’s contents. I originally wanted to call it the “The Week That Was”, but when it inevitably becomes super popular and people start tweeting about it so often that it gets condensed into #TWTW, I’m worried it’ll be lumped in with Hawk Harrelson’s “The Will to Win” nonsense.
Without further ado…
During the offseason, I posted a list of starters who could use a third pitch or throw one of their barely utilized pitches more. I attempted to track some changes during spring training hoping to find next Robbie Ray or Luis Severino. I’ve failed so far. Now with pitch tracking cameras on every pitcher, I can see if anyone is trying to throw a pitch more. I’ll go down my list from February and see who is stepping up their usage.
Dinelson Lamet (Fastball/Slider): Hurt
Antonio Senzatela (Fastball/Slider): A classification mess starts with the first healthy pitcher. MLB’s classification has him with a change curve at 8% but Pitch Info has him not throwing one. Examining his pitch movement charts shows just two pitch groupings. Verdict: Still a two-pitch pitcher
Luis Perdomo (Sinker/Curve): He threw his splitter/change six times which is in-line with his previous usage pattern. It’s a good groundball pitch (57%) but is below average for swings-and-misses for a splitter (10%). Read the rest of this entry »
We’re already four games into the season! We know that fastball velocity stabilizes quite quickly and while it’s too early to all out panic about anything, it’s far more acceptable to panic, or get excited, about a pitcher’s velocity than anything else. Obviously, not every pitcher has thrown a pitch this season yet, and stats are only updated through Saturday’s games as I type this. So this obviously isn’t a comprehensive comparison, but we’ll keep rolling out updates.
Today’s article is mainly facts with little to no narrative. I’m investigating possible changes that can be used in fantasy valuation with just a small sample, fastball velocity and lineup position.
Fastball velocity changes from 2017 to 2018 with new pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »
Almost exactly six years ago, I published a study that suggested pitcher spring training strikeout and walk rates had some predictive value for the upcoming season. Not a lot, of course, but there was definitely something there that shouldn’t be ignored like the rest of spring stats. I looked at all pitchers who have logged at least 15 innings this spring, and then compared their strikeout rate to the Pod Projection strikeout rate. Let’s discuss the 10 starting pitchers that enjoyed the largest spikes. I’ll take a look back at the end of the season to see if these surges really were prescient.
3/29/18
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