Opening Day Fastball Velocities & Lineup Positions

March 30, 2018

Today’s article is mainly facts with little to no narrative. I’m investigating possible changes that can be used in fantasy valuation with just a small sample, fastball velocity and lineup position.

Fastball velocity changes from 2017 to 2018 with new pitchers.

First here are the pitchers who threw yesterday with their 2017 and 2018 velocities.

Opening Day Fastball Velocity Changes

Name	2017 Velocity	2018 Velocity	Difference
Mike Mayers	93.4	95.7	2.3
Robert Gsellman	92.8	94.7	1.9
Jose Alvarez	91.2	92.8	1.6
Chris Devenski	94.0	95.5	1.5
Jeurys Familia	95.9	97.3	1.4
Rex Brothers	95.5	96.6	1.1
Zach Duke	88.2	89.3	1.1
Josh Osich	95.4	96.2	0.8
Aaron Loup	91.9	92.7	0.8
Hoby Milner	89.0	89.8	0.8
Austin Pruitt	91.7	92.5	0.8
Garrett Richards	95.8	96.5	0.8
John Axford	95.0	95.8	0.8
Kendall Graveman	93.3	93.9	0.6
Adam Morgan	94.2	94.7	0.6
Arodys Vizcaino	97.7	98.2	0.6
Keynan Middleton	96.4	97.0	0.5
Mychal Givens	95.5	96.0	0.5
Matt Bowman	90.9	91.4	0.5
Luis Severino	97.5	97.9	0.4
Jim Johnson	93.5	93.8	0.3
Danny Barnes	92.0	92.3	0.3
Tyler Clippard	90.9	91.3	0.3
Noe Ramirez	89.2	89.5	0.3
Anthony Swarzak	94.7	95.0	0.3
Hector Neris	94.6	94.9	0.3
Steve Cishek	90.4	90.5	0.2
Ryan Buchter	92.7	92.8	0.2
Edwin Diaz	97.4	97.6	0.1
Sam Freeman	95.2	95.4	0.1
Scott Oberg	96.2	96.3	0.1
Dylan Bundy	92.0	92.1	0.1
Alex Colome	95.1	95.2	0.1
Mike Montgomery	92.3	92.4	0.1
Ken Giles	98.1	98.2	0.0
Dan Winkler	93.4	93.4	0.0
Patrick Corbin	92.3	92.3	0.0
Tony Cingrani	94.3	94.3	-0.1
Carson Smith	91.9	91.8	-0.1
Hunter Strickland	95.6	95.5	-0.1
Chad Green	95.8	95.6	-0.2
Mike Dunn	92.5	92.3	-0.2
Adam Ottavino	94.4	94.1	-0.2
Fernando Rodney	94.5	94.2	-0.2
Jon Gray	96.0	95.7	-0.3
Chris O’Grady	87.3	87.0	-0.3
Justin Verlander	95.3	95.0	-0.3
Yusmeiro Petit	89.5	89.2	-0.4
Trevor Hildenberger	87.5	87.1	-0.4
Felix Hernandez	90.7	90.2	-0.4
Chris Rusin	91.2	90.7	-0.4
Nick Vincent	90.1	89.6	-0.5
Ty Blach	90.0	89.5	-0.5
Luis Garcia	97.0	96.5	-0.5
Richard Bleier	89.1	88.5	-0.5
Chris Sale	94.3	93.7	-0.6
Edubray Ramos	94.3	93.7	-0.6
Jake Odorizzi	91.6	91.0	-0.6
Juan Minaya	94.0	93.4	-0.6
Brad Peacock	92.1	91.6	-0.6
Darren O’Day	87.6	86.9	-0.6
Noah Syndergaard	98.2	97.6	-0.6
Aaron Nola	92.0	91.3	-0.7
J.A. Happ	91.7	91.0	-0.7
Matt Barnes	95.2	94.5	-0.7
Blake Treinen	97.1	96.4	-0.7
Cam Bedrosian	93.9	93.1	-0.8
Blake Wood	96.1	95.3	-0.8
Brian Duensing	92.0	91.2	-0.8
Cory Gearrin	91.7	90.9	-0.8
Corey Kluber	92.5	91.7	-0.8
James Shields	90.1	89.3	-0.8
Addison Reed	92.3	91.4	-0.9
Andrew Chafin	93.4	92.6	-0.9
Jose Urena	95.7	94.9	-0.9
Drew Steckenrider	95.2	94.3	-0.9
Chris Archer	95.5	94.6	-1.0
Fernando Salas	91.1	90.1	-1.0
Aroldis Chapman	100.0	99.0	-1.0
Kelvin Herrera	97.4	96.4	-1.0
Junichi Tazawa	92.8	91.7	-1.0
Peter Moylan	90.4	89.3	-1.1
Chris Hatcher	94.7	93.7	-1.1
Justin Wilson	96.0	94.8	-1.2
Archie Bradley	96.3	95.1	-1.2
Carlos Martinez	95.7	94.4	-1.2
Jon Lester	91.2	90.0	-1.2
Jorge De La Rosa	93.4	92.2	-1.3
Brad Brach	94.9	93.5	-1.4
Luis Avila n	92.7	91.3	-1.4
Clayton Kershaw	92.9	91.5	-1.4
Brandon Maurer	96.4	94.9	-1.5
Dellin Betances	98.3	96.7	-1.5
Matt Bush	97.5	95.8	-1.6
Marc Rzepczynski	92.5	90.8	-1.7
Josh Fields	95.4	93.7	-1.7
Joe Kelly	98.9	97.2	-1.8
Aaron Bummer	93.3	91.5	-1.8
Seung Hwan Oh	92.9	91.1	-1.8
Danny Duffy	92.9	91.1	-1.8
Dan Altavilla	96.8	94.8	-2.0
Brian Flynn	92.7	90.7	-2.0
Tony Watson	93.5	91.4	-2.0
Julio Teheran	91.3	89.2	-2.1
Jose Leclerc	95.8	93.6	-2.2
Cole Hamels	92.0	89.8	-2.2
Justin Grimm	94.9	92.6	-2.3
Pedro Strop	96.0	93.7	-2.4
Gregory Infante	95.5	92.6	-2.9
Blaine Boyer	94.1	90.9	-3.2
Juan Nicasio	95.3	91.6	-3.7
Sam Tuivailala	95.6	91.6	-4.0

Jordan Hicks	\N	100.4	\N
Tayron Guerrero	\N	97.0	\N
J.T. Chargois	\N	95.0	\N
Brad Keller	\N	94.0	\N
Chris Martin	\N	93.9	\N
Kevin Jepsen	\N	92.6	\N
Yoshihisa Hirano	\N	91.3	\N
Burch Smith	\N	90.6	\N
Tim Hill	\N	90.2	\N

The median pitcher velocity drop is 0.6 mph. This is not 100% surprising since all pitchers age thereby losing velocity and velocities are lower in the cooler months.

I’m not going to freak out on any of these pitchers for now but if I’m an owner of Teheran, Duffy, Lester, Kershaw, and Martinez, I’m watching their next start closely.

For pitchers gaining velocity, here are my thoughts on a few:

Robert Gsellman: He cranked it up with a near 2 mph bump in just one inning of bullpen work. In deeper leagues with decent benches, I may pick him up. He showed great potential in 2016 but injuries derailed his 2017 season. He just needs one of the other starters to get hurt. Give them a week.
Garrett Richards: A small velocity increase is nice considering how hard he throws and his injury history.
Chris Devenski: He doesn’t need a 1.5 mph velocity jump but he has it for now. Great for his owners.

Lineup positions which could change a hitter’s value compared to preseason assumptions

Starlin Castro: Batting 3rd, I expected him closer to the lineup’s top. While the Marlins offense isn’t the best, he should get plenty of Run and RBI chances.
Chris Davis: Batting 1st, Just looking over the team, the Orioles don’t have an on-base hitter with speed. So, it looks like Baltimore went with some on-base skills.
Byron Buxton: Batting 8th, Fewer at-bats for him to get on base and steal bases.
Delino DeShields: Batting 1st, Run baby run. This position could lead to 40+ steals for him.
Aaron Hicks: Batting 5th, He’s behind the Yankees big three. Oh, the RBI chances.
Curtis Granderson: Batting 4th, Hitting two spots ahead of Grichuk. It will be interesting to see if he keeps the spot.
Matt Duffy: Batting 1st, Again, not the best lineup but he wasn’t on many radars to even start the season.
Hanley Ramirez: Batting 3rd and playing 1B, We’ll see how long it lasts. The Red Sox need someone on base before J.D. Martinez hits
Jose Pirela: Batting 4th, Behind Hosmer and Myers. Again, not the best offense but the chance for him to get some RBIs.
Nick Williams: Batting 3rd, I’m not a big Williams fan as he barely has an average trait (only AVG). It’s an interesting call having him this high in the lineup.
Jon Jay: Batting 1st, The Royals need someone to leadoff and I could see him pick up 20 SB by season’s end.
Matt Davidson: Batting 4th, After hitting three homers yesterday, he’ll be extremely sought after.
The Dodger’s Lineup: Enrique Hernandez batting 4th, Bellinger 5th, Kemp 6th, With Turner out, the whole lineup looks jumbled. It’s one I’m going to follow for the next few days.