Welcome to the first edition of the deep league waiver wire of the 2019 season! In this weekly column, I’ll present to you two players owned in 10% or less of leagues on CBS that deserve your attention in deep leagues. Sometimes, my recommendations are also worthy of considering in shallow leaguers, which is exciting! I’ll share such thoughts in those situations.
A few days ago, I examined the pitch mix and velocity for all the Opening Day starts. Today, I tried to catch up but failed. I just couldn’t examine another 30 pitchers. Tomorrow, I’m going to try my hardest to give a glimpse at everyone remaining.
My goal in examining these starters is to find ones who have changed over the offseason. As owners, we may need to immediately adjust our projections. Since there is a ton to get through, here are the daily starters ordered by fastball velocity change. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points).
Today, I will attempt to develop a simple pitcher metric. My exercise will provide us with a recapitulation of the plate discipline data at our disposal, while at the same time afford us the opportunity to unearth some fascinating pitching tendencies of lesser known hurlers.
To do this, let’s start with the basic ingredients of plate discipline, from the point of view of the pitcher.
We can break down any pitch into these simple binary events:
Each week (on Monday or Tuesday depending on my schedule) I’m going to talk about something from the previous week in a pack of 10. This week we’re only working with four games, but I still found 10 unexpected gems worthy of some attention.
Trevor Williams | PIT at CIN: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 13% SwStr
I’m not going to overreact after the one start, but another gem gives him a 2.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his last 18 starts, spanning 102.7 innings. He has just a 12% K-BB rate in that time which fuels the skepticism and most relievers can’t sustain an 87% LOB rate, let alone starters. I’m reluctant to think I got it wrong on Williams just because he picked up where his 2018 left off. Maybe he’s more of a true talent 3.75 ERA than the 4.00-4.20ish level I suggested during his big run.
He gets Cincy at home in his next start, I’d use him for that in most formats where streaming is viable.
4/1/19
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If any stat can be monitored with a small sample, it’s pitch velocity. Fastball velocity stabilized with a sample of ‘1’. Just one fastball is enough to know a pitcher’s velocity going forward. I collected the Opening Day starters’ fastball velocities and compared them to last year’s values. It’s all we can really do at this point in the season.
Additionally, I compared this year’s and last year’s pitch mix. Mainly, I was hoping to find if a starter dumped or added a pitch. I didn’t mention a pitch if its usage didn’t change by 10% points or more.
Almost exactly seven years ago, I shared a study on the predictive value of pitcher strikeout and walk rates posted during spring training. Though most know that most spring training stats mean nothing (somehow, there are still those who think spring stats like ERA actually have predictive value), spring strikeout and walk rates do improve projections when incorporated. That said, we still have the same size issue to deal with, various levels of competition, and pitchers working on things that makes them not the actual pitcher we know them as. With those caveats out of the way, it’s at least worth being aware of pitchers striking out significantly more than projected to.
Yesterday, I identified and discussed 13 starting pitchers the 2019 Pod Projections forecasted a significantly lower ERA than Steamer. Today, I’ll take on the other group — those the Pod Projections are more bearish on than Steamer in ERA. I’ll only discuss those pitchers you truly care about.
Once upon a time, Matt Harvey was good. Awesome, in fact! Then the Mets overused him. Harvey suffered through Tommy John surgery, thoracic outlet syndrome, and just general ineffectiveness before the former draft day darling was essentially forgotten this year. Right now, the erstwhile Dark Knight of Gotham is being drafted outside the top 120 pitchers and top 400 players. That’s for good reason; last year’s 4.94 ERA and 4.57 FIP don’t inspire much confidence. But it also makes the Dark Knight someone who makes a remarkably good sleeper, especially in a traditionally starting pitching class. Harvey might have the most upside of any undrafted pitcher this year – because we know what he can do at his best, and that’s a top-5 pitcher in baseball.
Consensuses make me nervous. When everybody agrees, there’s usually a way to profit with a contrarian approach. This season features perhaps the most monolithic consensus I’ve seen in the last decade. Ace starting pitchers are the key to life, liberty, the cosmos, and a rockin’ bikini bod. You can’t possibly contend without at least one ace. Multiple aces are preferred. This leads me to ask a question…
Is 2019 a LIMA year?
