Starting Pitcher Chart – August 19th, 2026

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I haven’t fallen asleep before posting in a while, but I crashed after the Tigers game. I’m adding comments right now (as this goes up at 8 AM CT), but wanted to get the base post up right away since I’m late.

Pfaadt has returned to the majors with a vengeance and some of the best success of his career. A rough start in the rotation led to a role change but the bullpen didn’t go any better and eventually saw him demoted to a Triple-A in early-June. After three “opens” (they were starts, but all under 4 IP), he returned with 5.3 strong IP v. SFG, netting his first W of the year followed by an even sharper 5 IP outing at SDP that included 6 Ks/0 BB. Given the offenses in question, I remained skeptical. A solid start at LAD (5.3 IP/2 ER, but just 2 Ks) resulted in a 3rd straight W and he’d eventually run the streak up to 5 straight Ws. I still wasn’t sold that it was a transformation, citing his 200-pt. platoon split in the August 3rd SP Chart.

Now nine starts into his return, Pfaadt has certainly shown it’s more than a hot run. He’s even made it into the 7th inning in each of his last four, completing it three times, running his record up to 7-0 in the process. There’s at least a souvenir cup-sized of cold water to throw on this with a meager 14% K rate that gives him an out of place 11% K-BB to go with the incredible 1.16 ERA/0.89 WHIP. Premium control (3% BB), a .237 BABIP, and just 1 HR allowed (0.2 HR9) have overrun the need for strikeouts, at least for now. Let’s be honest, only the walk rate is truly skill-based, meaning the other two are ripe for regression. More 4-seamers (+10 pts to 30% usage compared to pre-demotion) are leading his 3-headed fastball approach (4-seamer, sinker, cutter) along with a huge surge in changeup usage (+13 pts to 22%) making him formidable against lefties for the first time… ever? Southpaws have just a .218 wOBA against Pfaadt since returning, down from .405, while he’s also gotten better versus righties, dropping from .284 to .227 wOBA.

Pitchers can succeed for long periods without a ton of strikeouts. It’s not the best day to cite him after a 6 ER Dud last night, but Nick Martinez has a 3.05 ERA/1.14 WHIP this year despite just an 11% K-BB in 142 IP. He’s one of nine guys with a sub-3.50 ERA and K-BB no higher than 12% in at least 100 IP. Only three of them have a 20% or better K rate, none eclipsing the 22% league average (Walbert Ureña 22%, Michael King 21%, and Robbie Ray 20%). They all have a SIERA in the mid-4.00s, ranging from 4.33 to 4.90 and it’s hard not to think there are some Duds in the offing for Pfaadt if the skills remain down here. He’s doing positive things that are driving enough bankable success to get him into rotations in any league size, but he still isn’t close to a set it and forget it type and won’t be able to achieve that level without cultivating a swing-and-miss pitch he can believe in start-to-start.

• Cavalli hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 12 starts, netting a 2.82 ERA/1.04 WHIP with a sharp 22% K-BB, fueled by a pair of double-digit strikeout games and four more with at least 7 Ks. He was lifted before a total implosion in the worst two of these 12 starts with early walks (5 BB in the 5 IP of these two outings) perhaps being a key indicator that it’s not his day. Unsurprisingly, he has 3+ BB in 5 of his 8 worst starts by Game Score (far from a perfect measure of a game, but a useful starting point in bucketing good/bat outings) this year. TEX is bottom 10 in BB% vR on the year and 27th in the L30 days (7%) along with the 3rd highest K% (26%) in that same time.
• Offff course May has two gems since joining MIL! He closed his STL tenure with a pair as well, so it’s been four straight good ones since his last Dud, posting a 1.50 ERA/0.96 WHIP/15% K-BB in 24 IP. I was definitely carrying some residual sourness from buying in after his 17 scoreless IP in mid-June only to see him allow 11 ER in 2.7 IP over his next two starts at KCR and at ATL. He’s earned enough trust that his next Dud won’t instantly have me running for the hills.
• Holmes was sharp in his 2nd start off the IL with 6.7 IP of 1-hit shutout ball. Only 3 Ks, but that’s never been the focus of his game with an elite groundball rate that should play very nicely with this defense behind him. Now they did lose Dansby Swanson which moves Nico Hoerner over to SS and Pedro Ramírez into the everyday 2B role which no doubt weakens the overall unit, but not enough to become a liability for Holmes.

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Intro

The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.

Color Coding:

• Green – Good Matchup (lower OPS output by SP opponent) – 21st to 30th
• Yellow – OK – 11th to 20th 
• Red – Bad – 1st to 10th