Yesterday, I kicked off a six-part series to answer the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. You can find the NL East here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

In the NL East post, we had a good chat about Jeurys Familia in the comments. I highlighted Addison Reed as a guy who could take Familia’s job. To be clear, they’re both top 15 relievers, it’s just that Reed happens to be better than Familia. And he doesn’t have domestic violence suspension ruining his April. If Reed has a sub-2.00 ERA and domineering stuff when Familia returns, it’s going to be awfully hard to demote him. The best use case for Familia owners is if the Mets decide to use Reed like Andrew Miller.

Returning to the matter at hand, let’s head west…

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, a reader asked Brandon Warne a question. Behind the scenes, Warne passed it along to the rest of the RotoGraphs crew. I decided it was worth a post or six. This is how we got where we are today (aren’t you glad you read that?).

Here’s the question in paraphrased form – which current MLB starters will flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player?

Let’s talk about the NL East today. We’ll rinse and repeat for the other five divisions later this week. During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Read the rest of this entry »

This time of year, I love perusing the NFBC ADP data and identifying potential late-round targets. For the sake of using a round number as a cutoff, I opted to focus on players who were select after pick 300 on average. Three players stood out as especially intriguing to me. Read the rest of this entry »

In ottoneu, most owners will implement some form of platoon among their outfield spots. While platooning in fantasy baseball is hardly sage advice, ottoneu is a little bit different in that the format specifically lends itself to platooning more than other fantasy platforms. First, you have 40 roster spots. Second, you have 5 OF spots and a 810 game cap at the position. Third, it’s a point format. Because of the 810 cap, you almost need to start a full slate of OF in nearly every game you can, as scheduled off days can make it very difficult to meet the 162 game cap at each of the 5 outfield spots. On top of that, the roster, because of it’s size, allows you to stash prospects or players you plan to use only in specific situations. However, you want to make sure you don’t depend on them too heavily, as scheduling can easily leave you below the cap.

Granted, if you’ve played ottoneu for any amount of time, you already know this. You know that platooning can be an extremely effective strategy. You probably know that strong side platoons are really what you want to acquire (more plate appearances) and you probably have a good idea of a couple names who fit this bill. You are looking for hitters who are likely to get 400+ plate appearance in their platoon role, so as not to be left missing starts with regularity. Today, I want to look at 3 (it’s a new year and I’m feeling generous) players who fit the bill of effective RHP mashers, but at varying costs.

Read the rest of this entry »

Entering 2016, Liam Hendriks was one of my favorite relief sleepers. In fact, I fantasized in my Bold Predictions piece that he’d enter 2017 as an elite closer. And while the results are laughable in hindsight, you can understand why I was bullish on him.

Coming off an outstanding 2015 in Toronto, Hendriks entered a remade Oakland bullpen headlined by a formerly dominant but unequivocally injury prone Sean Doolittle. His other competition included renowned ball four-enthusiast, John Axford, rookie Ryan Dull, and a resurgent but Medicare-eligible Ryan Madson. All possessed as many risks as virtues and it seemed, given the lingering questions surrounding them, that Liam Hendriks’ big fastball, elite command, and strong ground ball rate should have put him towards the top of the queue once the inevitable arm injury befell Doolittle. So what happened?

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I wrote up Rich Hill’s 2016 season, declaring him The Leader of Baseball’s Movementarians. In researching the piece, I dove deep into Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x leaderboards. I wanted to find out what makes Hill’s fastball so dominant, despite its unremarkable velocity, and his curveball so effective, given its unimpressive whiff rate. I’m not an expert in pitching mechanics. I can’t breakdown video or tell you much about grips. For that, talk to Eno. But I found that Hill enjoys two distinct advantages that make his (essentially) two-pitch arsenal play up.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week fellow writer Justin Vibber and I struck the following deal in the Ottoneu Champions League:

The goal today is not to go into the details of how this big trade came together (though I’d be happy to in the comments for those that want to know), but it is to focus on a very small piece of the puzzle: Luke Weaver.

Read the rest of this entry »

When looking for breakout hitters, outfield is usually a great place to start. Volume alone gives it an edge over the other positions, but there’s also the fact that a lot of the best athletes play out there and can offer a dynamic set of fantasy numbers. Sleepers don’t exist as they used to anymore, we all know that. Before the internet age, you could legitimately know of some players that the rest of your leaguemates were oblivious to and scoop them up late. Nowadays, no player is truly hidden – or asleep, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get bargains in the draft.

Let’s not get hung up on the term “sleeper” and instead focus on mining some surplus value in the draft. I look at them on levels: mid-rounder, late-rounder, and flyer. I loosely use the following guidelines for them.

Mid-rounder: picks in the 7th-12th rounds

Late-rounder: picks in the 13th-18th rounds

Flyer: picks from the 19th round on, including reserves

To qualify as a sleeper, I generally see that player as someone who will deliver value about four or more rounds higher than his draft slot. Again, these are loose guidelines, but they give me a general framework for identifying my potential plus value picks. I’ve got an outfielder for all three categories today.

Mid-rounder: Marcell Ozuna | Marlins

Ozuna returned to his 2014 level after a rough 2015 that included a demotion, but that’s not quite as impressive when you consider the surge in offense across the league. In fact, his .773 OPS was a point higher than ’14, but his wRC+ was 11 points lower at 105. Credit him for rebounding from ’15, but there’s a level of disappointment to Ozuna’s season because it looked like he was going to breakthrough and have that big season some have seen coming for him (including yours truly).

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s be honest, most sleepers don’t come through in fantasy baseball. At least not the true sleepers, guys picked beyond the 250 mark. There have definitely been some big hits beyond 250 this year: Trevor Story (252), Marco Estrada (273), Rich Hill (288) – although he did just hit the DL, Jackie Bradley Jr. (320), and Carlos Beltran (326) to name a few.

I was reminded of the failure of late sleepers when news of the Chris Coghlan trade came across the wire yesterday during my chat. He was someone I really liked to keep up what he did last year (16 HR, 11 SB) with plenty of playing time available in Oakland. Let’s see what’s going on with him and two other deep sleepers (pick 250 or later) I liked. They’re still asleep, but let’s see if there is hope.

Chris Coghlan

He’s hitting .146/.215/.272 in 172 PA so far. It’s been really rough. Sure, a .170 BABIP is unfavorable and probably due for some regression, but it didn’t just happen to him. His strikeout rate has surged from 19% to 27% with his walk rate dipping from 12% to 8% at the same time. Last year, he made a concerted effort to pull more and untap his power, but his 32% pull rate is his lowest since 2010 (30%) and well below last year’s 42%. He’s also reaching a lot more. His O-swing% is way up at 30% after a 23% rate last year that was 11th-lowest in baseball. He’s also seeing the fewest fastballs of his career at 54%, down from a consistent 57-58% from 2012-15.

Read the rest of this entry »

It was suggested that we should celebrate the day that stats stabilize. Today is Grounder Day! Eat a sloppy joe while sitting on a blanket. Drink one of these, or some of this, but I don’t know about having any of this. Grounder Day!

Well, we actually aren’t all the way there. Only about twenty players have officially reached the stabilization point for ground ball rate. But that’s fine. It actually serves as a reminder that stabilization is not something that magically happens at one point. Stabilization happens over a spectrum, and today we know a little more than we did yesterday, and tomorrow we’ll know a little more.

But! Relative to *other* stats on our leaderboards, we know a good deal about a player’s ground ball rate by now. And the beauty of that news is that just knowing a player’s change in ground ball rate can tell us a good deal about what sort of power we should expect from them going forward.

Read the rest of this entry »