Deep League Waiver Wire: Hard Hitting Edition

This week we look at two hitters available in deep leagues whose uncharacteristically good contact thus far warrants a closer examination. Obviously, as should be stated with almost any analysis at this point in the season, small sample caveats apply. And now that we are disclaimed, let’s irresponsibly dig for upside!

Preston Tucker (2% Yahoo, 2.8% ESPN, 8% CBS) – Tucker burst onto the scene last year in Houston posting a .243/.297/.439 slash line. Wait, that’s not very good. Why did I say burst? Oh right, because Tucker actually posted a 120 wRC+ through July before tanking in just 83 plate appearances the rest of the way. Tucker’s decrease in playing time obviously coincided with the arrival of Carlos Gomez.

But even beyond the trade deadline’s roster crunch ramifications, Tucker just stopped making good contact. His soft% increased to an alarming 32% from August onwards. He also stopped taking walks, reaching base via the free pass just 3.6% of the time.

Tucker has certainly remedied both problems so far this season. His walk rate has rebounded back up to 7% and he’s making excellent contact. His 52.9% hard% is good enough for 4th in MLB among players with at least 20 plate appearances and his 5.9% soft% is the 6th lowest. He also features one of the most evenly distributed spray charts in the league, shooting the ball to right, center, and left about 35%, 35%, and 30% of the time, respectively.

Admittedly, Tucker’s 53% GB rate is alarming and he’s hit only three fly balls so far, two of which have left the yard. He’s also striking out a lot but I’m not worried about the elevated swinging strike rate because he’s also getting ahead in counts early and laying off pitches out of the zone. Given this in the context of his respectable minor league track record, I think it’s a safe bet that his strikeout rate falls sooner rather than later.

Tucker needs to be benched in all leagues versus lefties since he’s unlikely to be in the lineup those days. As a result, he’s less relevant in leagues with weekly updates. With Evan Gattis on the mend, Tyler White doing his thing, and A.J. Reed incubating down on the farm, Tucker is likely to lose some ABs at some point this season. However, until the plate appearances dry up in reality, Tucker is worth adding in fantasy.

 

Leonys Martin (4% Yahoo, 8.7% ESPN, 22% CBS) – we all know about Martin’s speed. Dating back to 2013, his 82 steals have turned him into a sometimes useful one-dimensional player for fantasy owners. However, he’s off to an interesting start this season, walking slightly more than he has in the past while absolutely crushing the ball. He ranks 5th in MLB in hard hit%.

Comparing his 2012-2015 and 2016 heatmaps, Martin is eschewing pitches at the vertical extremes of the zone but expanding his zone horizontally. Not surprisingly, he’s spraying the ball more than he has in the past, making use of all fields, while hitting fewer grounders.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Martin’s biggest problem so far has been the strikeout. He’s been more selective on both balls and strikes, which has proved a mixed bag. While ahead in the count more often and chasing less frequently, he’s also taking more strikes. When he does swing, he misses 14.6% of the time, well over his career average, and leading him to strike out in nearly two fifths of his plate appearances.

Known more for speed and defense, Martin doesn’t possess Tucker’s pedigree at the plate so I’m less confident in his ability to cut down on the strikeouts. That said, a 38% K-rate would represent a 15-point jump over the worst season of his career, so we’re certainly due for some kind of favorable rebound. If Martin can improve his contact rate to career norms while maintaining some of the hard contact and increased selectivity we’re seeing, he won’t stay one-dimensional for long.





Rylan writes for Fangraphs and The Hardball Times. Look for his weekly Deep League Waiver Wire and The Chacon Zone columns this season.

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hebrewmember
7 years ago

i hate my league. i have a huge hole in my OF, and both of these guys have been on a team since Day 1

i guess that’s what happens when you’re in a 20-teamer

wobatus
7 years ago
Reply to  Rylan Edwards

20,000 leagues deep? Hmm, fathom that.

http://snltranscripts.jt.org/93/93qleagues.phtml

wobatus
7 years ago
Reply to  Rylan Edwards

Thanks for being a good sport about it. Not meaning to be snarky, I just liked that sketch. Phil Hartman as Kirk Douglas in 20,000 Leagues was hilarious.