Still Sleeping

Let’s be honest, most sleepers don’t come through in fantasy baseball. At least not the true sleepers, guys picked beyond the 250 mark. There have definitely been some big hits beyond 250 this year: Trevor Story (252), Marco Estrada (273), Rich Hill (288) – although he did just hit the DL, Jackie Bradley Jr. (320), and Carlos Beltran (326) to name a few.

I was reminded of the failure of late sleepers when news of the Chris Coghlan trade came across the wire yesterday during my chat. He was someone I really liked to keep up what he did last year (16 HR, 11 SB) with plenty of playing time available in Oakland. Let’s see what’s going on with him and two other deep sleepers (pick 250 or later) I liked. They’re still asleep, but let’s see if there is hope.

Chris Coghlan

He’s hitting .146/.215/.272 in 172 PA so far. It’s been really rough. Sure, a .170 BABIP is unfavorable and probably due for some regression, but it didn’t just happen to him. His strikeout rate has surged from 19% to 27% with his walk rate dipping from 12% to 8% at the same time. Last year, he made a concerted effort to pull more and untap his power, but his 32% pull rate is his lowest since 2010 (30%) and well below last year’s 42%. He’s also reaching a lot more. His O-swing% is way up at 30% after a 23% rate last year that was 11th-lowest in baseball. He’s also seeing the fewest fastballs of his career at 54%, down from a consistent 57-58% from 2012-15.

That’s a lot of change, all of it for the worse, too. In short, it seems like the league adjusted and now it’s his turn. It’s a constant battle in the majors. Cutting into that reach rate would likely help and be one of the quickest possible fixes, but it’s worth noting that he’s got just a .472 OPS on pitches in the zone. Last year, he had an .866 OPS in those situations so there’s definitely no easy fix. Maybe getting back into the spot where he had the success is going to help? It’s certainly not the statistical angle, but I can’t find many (any?) reasons for hope within the statistical profile right now.

He could be seriously limited in playing time with the Cubs, though. At least last year he had the fact that he was raking make it easier for Joe Maddon to pencil him in with some regularity. They did just lose Jorge Soler to injury, but Coghlan has to be low on the food chain even as a lefty with strong side platoon capability.

Prognosis: Negative (never did catch that movie!) – He wasn’t even really worth stashing in deep AL-only leagues nor do I think he should be owned in similarly deep NL-only leagues after the move.

Aaron Hicks

Playing time was the biggest issues for Hicks coming into the season, but I believed (and still do, tbh) that the aged Yankees roster would yield opportunities. His 132 PA are nearly 100 shy of the three starters: Jacoby Ellsbury (214), Brett Gardner (220), and Carlos Beltran (224) and they are easily the top three WAR leaders on the team, too. Hicks hasn’t made the most of his time, either, with a career-worst 53 wRC+. In fact, Mark Teixeira’s 48 is the only thing keeping Hicks from the bottom among the 13 Yankees with at least 50 PA.

His strikeout and walk rates are right in line with 2015, but his batted ball profile has changed. His groundball rate is up 10 percentage points to 52% and it has all come from his line drive rate which is down to a paltry 15%, well below the 21% league average. He’s also become pull happy (45%) after a balanced approach (36% pull, 34% center, 30% oppo) last year that helped yield some solid results in 390 PA. His .227 BABIP is way below his .285 from last year and even well off his .268 career mark.

I think I’d be more confident if he was a full-time player, but his disjointed playing time – he’s started just 15 of his last 22 games played and hasn’t started back-to-back games in June yet – makes coming out of a slump even tougher. There is still fragility in Yankees outfield, but I also thought performance in the form of struggles from one of the three might also expedite Hicks’s ascent and as I outlined earlier, that couldn’t be further from the case as they are literally the team’s three best players and batting 1-2-3 in the lineup.

Prognosis: Negative – Maybe these guys were widely available to me for a reason.

Enrique Hernandez

Puerto Rican Eric Byrnes obliterated his half-season last year and was a DFS darling as a lefty-killer. He posted a .307/.346/.490 line with seven homers in 218 PA, including an insane 1.215 OPS against lefties. He started playing regularly in late-July and reeled off a .952 in 28 games (23 of them starts) before a hamstring injury limited him to just five more games the rest of year. He’s toting a meager .656 OPS this year, though still with a lefty lean at .791, in 119 PA while starting just 22 of the 52 games he’s appeared in.

I think the lack of steady playing time has been the major culprit here. Howie Kendrick being added to the outfield mix and the emergence of Trayce Thompson have limited Hernandez’s opportunities. He’s striking out less and walking almost twice as much in the small sample. In 26 of his 52 games, he’s gotten just one plate appearance. A .235 BABIP isn’t helping, either. I think more of Hernandez’s BABIP is bad luck as compared to Coghlan.

The sharp rise in flyball rate for Hernandez from 30% to 48% definitely plays a role as flyballs are the lowest BABIP batted ball type (line drives best, then grounders), but his .129 BABIP on groundballs is pretty unfortunate. The league is at .240 and he’s at .255 for his career. That’d be worth 4 hits based on his grounders this year which would have him at a .250 AVG. Just 4 hits would change the outlook on his stats given the small sample.

Prognosis: Positive – The Yasiel Puig injury could be his opening as he’s started three of the last four games. Hamstrings have been a constant issue for Puig so this could be a long-term situation. If Hernandez performs well in this opportunity, he could establish himself ahead of Kendrick in the OF pecking order (not that Kendrick’s 50 wRC+ shouldn’t already do that). He should never miss against a lefty as the caddy to Joc Pederson or Chase Utley. He’s still a deep league play at best, but he’s not a bad stopgap option who could start showing flashes of last year’s heights.