Bargain Shopping: Five for $5

Last week fellow writer Justin Vibber and I struck the following deal in the Ottoneu Champions League:

The goal today is not to go into the details of how this big trade came together (though I’d be happy to in the comments for those that want to know), but it is to focus on a very small piece of the puzzle: Luke Weaver.

I’m intrigued by Luke Weaver entering 2017.  Though his MLB sample is small (36 1/3 IP), he carried over a strong AA K% (28.6%) to rank among the top 15 starting pitchers (min. 30 IP) with 27.9%.  He suffered from a .371 BABIP.  His .310 xFIP is encouraging.  He reminds me a bit of Michael Pineda.

So Luke Weaver is interesting, but for fantasy purposes I’m not ready to call him a sleeper, because to me, “sleeper” connotes an underlying probability of potential surplus value.   At a salary of $8 I’m almost positive that probability is low, even though I was keeping enough of an eye on Weaver to convince Justin to “throw him in” to this deal.  And that’s sort of the point: these winter months are all about spotting interesting things about dormant players that might offer optimism about a potential breakout next season.  And for fantasy purposes, we always want to be out front of those breakouts because it’s what gives us an edge, even if for a short period of time.

What follows are five players under $5 (on average) I find interesting.  That’s it; these aren’t sleepers necessarily (at least not yet).  But they might be intriguing enough to make it worthwhile to request in a trade as the off season unfolds.

Brandon Drury ($4.88; 2B/3B/OF)

The intrigue for Drury starts with multi-position eligibility, as it’s always good to keep an eye on these guys in deep leagues like Ottoneu where filling your games is a must.  But is there something else here that makes Drury at least watchlist worthy? Consider his monthly splits:

April: .372 wOBA, .294 ISO, 21% K%

May: .326 wOBA, .151 ISO, 16.8% K%

June: .230 wOBA, .023 ISO, 26.5% K%

July: .279 wOBA, .143 ISO, 22.2% K%

August: .288 wOBA, .088 ISO, 15.6% K%

September: .442 wOBA, .276 ISO, 21.3% K%

These monthly splits are truly all over the place and are what “making adjustments” looks like for a young player in his first season (499 PA) in the big leagues.  Drury is a strong contact hitter, has a manageable strikeout rate, and crushed the ball at home (.393 wOBA vs. .276 away).  He’s not a SB threat, but is a decent bet to add 15-20 HR off your bench next year from multiple positions.  He finished the season on a hot streak (buoyed by a .420 BABIP) and will play at just 24 years old.  Maybe the intrigue starts and ends with multi-position eligibility for now, but for a $2 or $3 investment Drury seems like a smart, cheap player to target in trades this winter.

Alex Dickerson ($4.80; OF)

Dickerson has already been dubbed a “sleeper” by another Alex, so maybe his inclusion here just reinforces the idea that his emerging power hitting, low strikeout profile is indeed something to get excited about.  The left-handed hitting Dickerson will play most of 2017 at the age of 27, and since he only played in 10 games for the Padres before July (a month in which he managed a .399 wOBA with a .278 BABIP), there’s a chance he’s still a relatively unknown OF you could scoop up cheaply in your league.  The fact that he was nearly league average (98 wRC+) vs. LHP in his debut is also encouraging, as is the fact that Statcast suggests he could have performed even better overall last year (.257 AVG vs. .283 xAVG; .274 BABIP vs. .304 xBABIP).  Steamer looks like a buyer too, projecting a .329 wOBA (same as Justin Upton and Andrew McCutchen finished last season), which will play easily as a 5^th OF in deep leagues like Ottoneu.

Mike Zunino ($4.67; C)

Few players make better “post-hype” material than early round catchers, and Zunino finally offered just enough production last year (12 HR, .338 wOBA in 55 games) that he should at least grab your attention here for a couple more sentences.  Zunino has been a high strikeout, low contact enigma since debuting in 2013, but he managed to double his BB rate (10.9% from 5.4%) while also doubling his ISO (.262 from .126) from a year ago, which is a somewhat impressive accomplishment for a player almost universally considered “failed” at this point.  Statcast doesn’t love Zunino (.326 wOBA vs. .312 xOBA), but he did made some strides in reducing his tendency to swing at pitches outside the zone, so there’s at least enough forward progress here to suggest that a 2017 perfect storm of BABIP luck, continued marginal swing improvements, and additional playing time could make Zunino a 30 HR catcher on the cheap, and that plays in almost all formats.

Justin Bour ($4.49, 1B)

Bour finished the 2015 season (129 games) with a round .800 OPS and finished last year with improvements that pushed him to an .824 OPS.  But the season-ending numbers hide the context of a July ankle injury that actually sent his season spiraling downward.  Consider the splits:

1^st half: .268 AVG, .873 OPS, 15 HR, .258 ISO, .363 wOBA

2^nd half: .254 AVG, .668 OPS, 0 HR, .060 ISO, .277 wOBA

June: .317 AVG, 1.062 OPS, 6 HR, .333 ISO, .440 wOBA

Bour’s solid 2015 season gives me hope that his first half 2016 results are a better indicator of positive player development than how he finished, and Statcast seems to back up my optimism too, ranking Bour 10^th overall among all players (min. 300 PA) with an expected wOBA (“xOBA” from Andrew Perpetua’s good work) difference over their actual 2016 wOBA (.374 xOBA – .342 wOBA).  I like what I see in Justin Bour heading into 2017, even if he’s just a platoon bat off for RHP off your bench, and will likely be keeping or targeting him in almost all my leagues this off season.

Chris Owings ($4.17, OF/SS)

Like Drury, Owings will also enter 2017 with dual eligibility in Arizona, but this time it’s speed that makes  for an intriguing profile in 5 x 5 leagues.  Owings is never going to be a high OBP guy (.315 last season), but his speed (on pace for just under 30 full season SB’s last year) plays, and he actually led MLB in triples (11), helping him to a career-best .416 SLG, too.  He’s reliant upon a high BABIP for sustained success (.329 xBABIP), and he’ll need to correct what could be a concerning split against RHP (.306 vs. LHP; .267 vs. RHP), but Owings has shown enough baseline roto skills over the past three seasons (just 25 years old) to make him a low investment flyer in many leagues.