Archive for Roto

Welcome back, fearless readers! With another week of cold and dark, fantasy-less days behind us, let’s look at a few more players who might just fulfill the exact criteria of what a sleeper truly is. Because if we’re not planting early flags, what are we even doing?

Last time out we looked at a couple of sleepy fellas for 2023, so if you want to check them out or go over our value criteria, please feel free to do so here. But considering that my two young children have equaled me going to no less than five Halloween events over the next four days, we should really go ahead and get down to business. Read the rest of this entry »

To qualify for this totally made-up award, a player must have been projected to earn positive value in the stolen base category (mSB) on our Auction Calculator (default settings, steamer projections) and negative value in every other category. They then needed to earn positive value in at least three of the four non-SB categories (mR, mHR, mRBI, mAVG).

Finalists: Bobby Witt Jr., Daulton Varsho, Dansby Swanson

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Finalist #1: Bobby Witt Jr., Projected negative: mAVG, mHR, mRBI, mR. Earned positive: mHR, mRBI, mR, mSB

Surely there will be plenty written about Bobby Witt Jr.’s rookie season in fantasy realms this offseason. His preseason projections were likely low due to the uncertainty of his playing time/call-up situation. It was clear that he was going to be good. But, would you have guessed he’d finish as the fifth-best third-baseman by auction value earned? It was clear that he was going to steal bases, and in the end, that’s what drove his value. If you look at any one of his 15-game rolling charts not involving base running, it would tell you a story of a 22-year-old rookie who has a lot of potential but may not have lit the world on fire in his first year. It happens.

Witt outperformed all of his roto-category projections except for his batting average. He was projected to hit .257 and he hit .254. Not bad, steamer projections. Compared to his 2021 AAA stats, his line-drive rate was down and his ground ball rate was up. He also put out fewer fly-balls for home runs than he did in AAA. However, he still showed that he has the 22-year-old ability to absolutely smoke the ball with his 92nd Statcast percentile maxEV. But, he had a difficult time with major league four-seamers, putting up a -7 Statcast run value and a 23rd worst (among qualified hitters) -2.6 pitch-info p-val on wFA. However, Witt accumulated 632 plate appearances in his rookie season (second behind Steven Kwan) and that experience must be worth a few extra dollars going into 2023.

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Finalist #2: Daulton Varsho, Projected negative: mAVG, mHR, mRBI, mR. Earned positive: mHR, mRBI, mR, mSB

One thing to keep in mind is Varsho’s increased projected value due to his eligibility at catcher. The positional scarcity earns him a higher value. But, Varsho was a catcher-eligible player who was expected to run and he did not disappoint, stealing a career-high (MLB) 16 bases. He also put together a close-to-full season with 592 plate appearances in 151 games. He was a workhorse this season and everything but his batting average (.234) showed it.

However, these roto-value gains don’t seem to be accompanied by much underlying Statcast data:

He did catch 31 games in 2022, so depending on your league rules, he may or may not be eligible again at the catcher position in 2023. Regardless, no matter which way you look at it, 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases at the catcher position in 2022 play nicely on any fantasy team under any league parameters. For a player who has only had roughly one and a half seasons at the major league level, I’m looking forward to seeing his 2023 projections.

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…and the award goes to…

Finalist #3: Dansby Swanson, Projected negative: mAVG, mHR, mRBI, mR. Earned positive: mHR, mRBI, mR, mSB, mAVG

As Swanson heads into free agency this offseason, his 2022 totals indicate that he intended to make a statement.  In 2022 he put up the most plate appearances of his career, scored the most runs, hit the most RBI, and stole the most bases. He also put up his lowest BB%, which didn’t help those rostering him in OBP leagues. His K% has been on an upward trend in the past three seasons, but so have his home run totals, FB% and SwStr%.

Is he selling out for power? Maybe. But he also outperformed his batting average projection (steamer) of .245 by over 20 points (.277) and the 2022 major league average was .243.

Don’t call him a rabbit, but he did run, stealing a career-high 18 bags. However, he’s not being given this award because he stole bases, he’s being given this prestigious award because he did everything else.

Congratulations to Dansby Swanson on an amazing season and to any fantasy managers that rostered him. Next week, I’ll begin my dishing out these highly coveted awards to pitchers.

Of course, it’s never too early for sleepers! But first, we must decide, once and for all, what the actual definition of a sleeper is. No matter how long it takes, we must get to the bottom of this age-old question!

Oh my god, no we do not. I get the classical sense of what people generally mean when they say sleeper but for me, it’s just about anyone that I think is going to earn a lot more than I’ll have to pay to acquire them. Sleepers after pick #300? Obviously. Sleepers around #150? Yep. Sleepers in the top-100? You bet. Regardless of where you get them, it’s all about that ROI, baby. So, let’s get to napping. Read the rest of this entry »

HRs dropped by 729 to 5215, a 12% decline from 2021.

The league SLG fell to .395, the first time below .400 since 2014.

Aaron Judge led the league with 62 HRs, easily outpacing the NL leader, Kyle Schwarber, and his 46.

Two other players hit 40+ with Mike Trout and Pete Alonso (40 each) joining Judge and Schwarber, giving us four hitters with 40+ HRs, down from the five in 2021.

Six players hit 35-39: Austin Riley (38), Yordan Alvarez (37), Christian Walker (36), Paul Goldschmidt (35), Mookie Betts (35), Rowdy Tellez (35). Down from 14 in 2021.

Read the rest of this entry »

Well, since I’m currently in one draft on NFBC, we do (technically speaking) have some fresh 2023 ADP data to obsess over. We’ll just have to play a little loose with the whole “average” part of the initialization. But regardless of sample size, there is valuable information to be gleaned from this particular draft. We just have to know what questions to ask, what should be noted, and what can be ignored.

Normally, looking at any one draft in a season is going to be mostly pointless but this first draft is different, partly because it can answer some general questions about the texture but also because of the pool of managers. I’m not saying that entering the first fantasy draft of the season makes you an expert player but I think we can safely say it makes you a bit of a degenerate. Again, being a degenerate doesn’t make you an expert (see; me) but this draft is filled with some names you know and love, as well as some highest-volume NFBC players going. AKA probably not total fools. Read the rest of this entry »

To qualify for this totally made-up award, a player must have earned positive value by the season’s end (2022) and show the largest difference in projected value versus end-of-season value. Simply put, I subtracted earned value from projected value, called it ‘Diff’, and sorted descending. It should be noted ahead of time that these three players were negatively valued due to very low plate appearance projections.

Finalists: Jon Berti, Brendan Donovan, Brandon Drury

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Finalist #1: Jon Berti, Projected: $-27, Earned: $6

PA projection average: 183, 2022 PA: 404

In his age-32 season, Jon Berti stole 41 bases. He did it in 404 plate appearances. The next four hitters with the most stolen bases in at least 400 plate appearances (Jorge Mateo, Cedric Mullins, Tommy Edman, and Randy Arozarena) averaged 620 plate appearances. Berti swiped the most bags in the majors this season and did it in significantly fewer PA’s than his competition. He was only caught stealing five times. Unfortunately, Berti’s value was driven solely by base-stealing production. Though he finished the year with a .240 average (MLB: .243) and a .324 OBP (MLB: .312), his four home runs squashed his run production. He finished the year with only 47 runs and 28 RBI. If you go to the Auction Calculator and sort by mSB, you’ll find that Jon Berti is the first on the list, but that the next 16 players all returned more overall value. Regardless, a $33 difference in what was projected and what was earned means that if you paid $1 for Berti, you made a profit and that’s really what it’s all about, isn’t it?

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Finalist #2: Brendan Donovan, Projected: $-32, Earned: $3

PA projection average: 19, 2022 PA: 468

Check Donovan’s FanGraphs blogroll and you’ll see that he’s been written about thoroughly in the past few months. Eric Longenhagen’s July 1st ranking of Donovan placed him 7th in the organization and he really nailed this bit:

“Donovan grinds out great at-bats, he is tough to make chase and even more difficult to beat within the strike zone”

Donovan’s profile and prospect write-ups may eliminate him from the “Nobody Saw Him Comin'” qualifications, but I certainly did not see/hear anyone touting him prior to the 2022 season. Like Berti, Donovan was limited to one single category when it comes to returning a positive value, but he certainly helped fantasy managers playing in OBP leagues who rostered him. Among hitters with at least 450 PA’s in 2022, Donovan placed 7th in OBP with .394, finishing right behind Juan Soto who finished the year at .401. He did so with an excellent 12.8% BB%, well above the league average 8.2%. One more great quality of Donovan’s in 2022 was his ability to play all over the field. Here’s a count of his games played at each position from his player page:

2022 Games Played:

2B: 38    3B: 31    RF: 20    LF: 19    1B: 16    DH: 16    SS: 7

While Donovan’s year was a success from a player standpoint, it would be hard to consider him a full roto fantasy asset in 2023.

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…and the award goes to…

Finalist #3: Brandon Drury, Projected: $-31, Earned: $17

PA projection average: 56, 2022 PA: 568

Drury cooled off some between the first half (133 wRC+) and the second half (107 wRC+), but stayed above average to end the season (123 wRC+). During the trade deadline, Luke Hooper detailed Drury’s improved batted ball skills, including an increased barrel rate coupled with a career-low swinging strike rate. But realistically, Drury finally found consistent playing time. His 568 plate appearances beat his career high of 499 back in 2016 and blew his 2020 49 PA’s and 2021 88 PA’s out of the water. But Drury also tapped into some pull power in 2022, pulling 22 of his 28 home runs over the fence. Yet it would seem like an easy route to take to boil Drury’s production down to simply increased pull power. Yes, his batting average on pulled balls was .385, good for a 237 wRC+, but he also showcased above-average (SLG .457) production on opposite-field batted balls at .523, most of which came off of line drives:

Finally, like Donovan, Drury played all over the field and gave fantasy managers flexibility:

2022 Games Played:

3B: 67 1B: 30 2B: 27 DH: 26 SS: 2 RF:1

In truth, it’s hard to look at Drury’s 2022 stats and notice huge sweeping changes beyond the steady accumulation of PAs. Sometimes, players get opportunities and make the most of them.

Congratulations to Brandon Drury on an amazing season and to any fantasy managers that rostered him. Next week, I’ll take a look at the overall largest differences in projections versus earned value with the Don’t Call Me a Rabbit Award.

To qualify for this totally made-up award, a player must have earned at least $5 by the end of the season and accumulated at least $5 more than expected. This query logic allows for players who we already knew would be good, but we just didn’t know would be this good.

Finalists: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, and Freddie Freeman

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Finalist #1: Paul Goldschmidt, Projected: $19, Earned: $34

The man has never really been bad, but if you had faded him in your rankings headed into his age 35 season due to some of the dips witnessed in 2o21, it’s likely that no one gave you a hard time.

If you didn’t fade, you came out with a player who exceeded his z-scores in every single category excluding stolen bases, but even his stolen base value was nearly average with 7 on the year. Here’s a look at his projected and earned value:

Goldschmidt has very little in his skills profile that would indicate an age decline. There is hardly anything that has gone through significant change or deviation from his career averages. Simply put, he has been one of the most steady and productive fantasy players in history and if you had him on your team, you were likely one of the top teams in your league.

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Finalist #2: Freddie Freeman, Projected: $26, Earned: $33

Freeman was the 12th most valuable player listed on the preseason auction calculator (steamer, default settings) and the fourth best player with 2022 YTD settings. It should not be a surprise that he finished as a top-five hitter, but if you got Freeman and you didn’t overpay, you generated some good value. There was very little time this season that Freeman’s 15-game rolling wRC+ was below 100.

Freeman outperformed his z-scores in every category except for home runs. He was projected for 32 and he only hit 21. While his HR/FB rate may indicate that he was unlucky, his HardHit% declined this season and has been declining over the span of the last four seasons. Freeman ended the year with a 12% HR/FB while the league averaged 11.4%:

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…and the award goes to…

Finalist #3: Aaron Judge, Projected: $27, Earned: $55

Are you surprised? Judge was slept on this season. I write that knowing his ADP was in the third round, but I think many fantasy managers were hesitant due to his injury history. Sure, Judge outperformed all of our projection systems’ home run totals by over 20, but did you see those 16 stolen bases?! This was one of the most dominant fantasy seasons by a single player in a long time. The only player to come close to his end-of-season $55 value was Miguel Cabrera’s 2014 $44.8 and Mookie Betts‘ 2018 $44.0. That’s just what happens when you break the American League (AL) single-season home run record and make a push for the AL triple crown. It is truly remarkable what Aaron Judge did this season from a fantasy perspective. To think that he could have been a 20-20 player with only four more steals is somewhat mind-boggling. Anyone who rostered Judge was taking a risk. Here’s a look at his “Five-Year Injury Log” courtesy of Ron Schandler’s 2022 Baseball Forecaster:

18 – 50 days, right wrist fracture

19 – 62 days strained L oblique

20 – 34 days strained R calf

21 – 12 days COVID-19

Fantasy managers who realized the potential in a healthy Aaron Judge season likely gambled and took him early. If you saw his $27 pre-season projected value and thought, “No, that can’t be right”, and you tacked on an additional $20, you would have still underpaid by $8. Simply amazing.

Congratulation to Aaron Judge on an amazing season and to any fantasy managers that rostered him. Next week, I’ll take a look at the overall largest differences in projections versus earned value with the Nobody Saw You Comin’ Award.

After the long grind, for many, it is a time to rest. A time to turn off your fantasy baseball brain for a few months, or maybe sink completely into fantasy football. Or, perhaps, just reintroduce yourself to those people who keep claiming to be your family. But one more important task remains before putting the 2022 season behind us – we must take stock, gleaning whatever lessons we can from both the highs and lows in search of a better process.

Now is the time to do so because as you sink into other endeavors, the memories will start to fade, with only the results remaining, while the path you took to get there fades into the background. But that path is what you need to remember for future success, noting what made things rough and where you ran downhill. Remembering you won or lost in 2022 won’t win you a single thing in 2023 if you don’t remember why. Read the rest of this entry »

Six more days, just one more turn around the rotation. Whether you’re in the final leg of a head-to-head run or are trying to scrape out every last stat in roto, every single sit/start decision could carry season-ending ramifications. Let’s keep doing what we’ve been doing, breaking down all the minutiae you need to make your best decisions, and packaging it all in some not-so-fancy color coding.

As per usual, we have no time to waste. Closing time, folks. Time to grab those belts. Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a shock; Reynaldo López holds the sixth-best WAR and sixth-best FIP (as of games through 9/28/22) among qualified relievers in 2022. If you rostered him from the start of the season until now, which I’m sure you didn’t, you would have accumulated five wins, leveled out your ERA with a 2.84 contribution, and almost certainly lowered your overall WHIP thanks to his career-low 0.93.

In 2022 López lowered his BB% by nearly eight percentage points and increased his K% by over five percentage points when compared to his 2020 season. Just look at how his statcast percentile ranks have changed over that time:

How did he do it? I won’t dance around the answer trying to build tension, I’ll just deliver it up front; he became a reliever and started throwing harder. In 2022, he only started one game and in that start against the Texas Rangers on June, 10th, he only threw two innings, acting as an opener in what essentially was a bullpen game.

At the end of the 2020 season when López was 26 years old and holding a 6.49 ERA, the White Sox didn’t know what to do with the big righty. He started nine games and only threw 57.2 innings. In 2021, he bounced back and forth between reliever and starter roles, and in his reliever roles, he averaged two innings. In 2022, only 14 of his 59 games have gone over one inning. When a pitcher knows he is only going out for one inning, he can put a little more ompfff in his fastball:

It would certainly seem that throwing the ball harder on all of his four pitches used in 2022 has led to overall improvements, but each pitch on its own has improved in Whiff%. In addition, his overall out-of-zone swing % has improved.

So, is it that simple? Throw the ball harder for a shorter period of time and you’ll be better? You’ll double your WAR in a single season and you’ll more than double your WAR from two seasons ago? Decreasing his FIP has gone a long way when it comes to increasing his WAR. If a pitcher limit’s their home run totals while also limiting the walks they give up, they are on their way to an improved FIP.

But the real kicker here is that while he has lowered his FIP, increased his Whiff%, increased his Chase%, lowered his ERA, his WHIP, and his BB/9, López has held an unsustainably low HR/FB rate in 2022. He has only given up one home run on the year. Last year, he gave up 10. It’s not necessarily crazy for a reliever to give up only one home run. So far in 2022, there have been five qualified relievers who have given up one home run and 14 qualified relievers have given up only two home runs. But, scroll back up and look at López’s statcast percentiles and you will see that he still gives up hard contact.

In every year of his career, López has been above the average of balls in play that are fly balls. If he is still giving up hard contact, but in smaller samples as a reliever, and he is still putting the ball in the air more often than the average, yet he is no longer giving up home runs, what will happen?

Steamer projected 13 home runs to be hit off the Chicago righty, but to be fair, he was mostly projected as a starter. Regardless, let’s re-calculate his FIP on the year and throw in five more home runs for a total of six. His FIP is now 2.96 which is more in line with his xFIP of 3.27. Finally, here’s the point: Reynaldo López has gotten lucky this year with home runs. He has limited his walk rate and the home runs he has given up tremendously, but it’s not sustainable.

This may seem like an off-season article, but we’re nearly there. You may be looking through leaderboards and you may notice López’s excellent reliever WAR standing to finish off the year. You may notice his FIP. You may notice his velocity increase, his new role, and his improved whiff rate. Don’t get me wrong, López has had a nice season. It has been a great way to bounce back and become relevant once again. But, hidden under all those improvements, is fly ball/home run luck.