Archive for Roto

Dividends from the Cole Hamels trade weren’t supposed to start paying off for either team until 2016. But then the Rangers stormed the West to clinch a playoff berth with a 3-game lead on the Astros for the division, though the Phillies haven’t really missed a beat production-wise as Jerad Eickhoff has essentially matched Hamels (yes, I realize that Alec Asher has been a negative for Philly while Jake Diekman has also been a boon for the Rangers tilting the balance back in their favor rather sharply, but this is about Eickhoff).

The read on Eickhoff both before the season and at the time of the trade was a #4 or #5 starter who could find success in a bullpen role if he didn’t quite pan out as a starter. Through eight starts in his big league career, he looks more like a solid mid-rotation option by the numbers, but has he shown enough to be considered such for 2016? Of course, all of the necessary small sample size caveats are in effect at the 51-inning mark, but he is showing improvements on his early season scouting report.

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The title of the article is an allusion to Schott’s Miscellany, which you should definitely check out if you never have and feel compelled to know that a group of larks is called an exaltation or that a member of the 32nd degree of Freemasonry is known as a Sublime Prince of the Royal Secret.

— More on High-Stress Pitches —

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about Matt Harvey for which I did some research into how frequently he threw pitches this season in high-stress situations, which I defined as pitches during plate appearances with a leverage index of 2.0 or more. The inspiration for the article came from concerns over potential injury for Harvey, but as I reflected on the approach I took, I started to wonder whether high-stress innings might have implications on pitcher performance separate from injuries.

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Sadly, this is my last post of the week, which means it’s my last set of starting pitcher recommendations. Perhaps if you’re nice, you could convince another RotoGrapher to take the mantle for the last two games of the season.

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Episode 283

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris have got six pitchers who failed to live up to their lofty draft status. The two discuss what went wrong for these pitchers and decide whether or not they will re-invest in 2016.

• Andrew Cashner
• Alex Wood
• Gio Gonzalez
• Yordano Ventura
• Jordan Zimmermann
• Corey Kluber

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Value is nebulous term in fantasy sports. In fact, some (namely colleague and friend Todd Zola of Fantasy Alarm) don’t even like the term anymore as it can be often misused. I believe Zola has some good points against using the word so often, but nevertheless we’ll push forward with it as it conveys the idea I’m going for today. Who delivered the most bang for their buck? For this particular piece, I’ll be looking at those who were drafted regularly.

Determining who was drafted “regularly” will come via the excellent FantasyPros data on average draft positions (ADP) across six different sites. I used a 350 ADP as the cutoff, that covers 10- and 12-team leagues easily (23-man roster plus reserves) and gets pretty deep into 15-team leagues. Here is the overall ranking and then you can click by each position. I’m looking at this by position and comparing a player’s draft slot at his position to where he stands now.

To qualify as the best value, they must be in the top 12 at their position per the FantasyPros Player Rater. It’s great that Adam Lind is 32 spots higher than his draft spot at 1B, but he’s still only 17th at the position. Mark Teixeira is similar in that he’s 26 spots better than his draft slot, but sits just 20th at the position (due in part to an injury shortening his season, obviously).

CATCHER

Stephen Vogt [OAK – Draft: 23rd at C, 315th Overall; 2015: 6th at C]

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Brian Dozier

Brian Dozier has 28 HRs this season making him the most prolific power-hitting second basemen in the game. Coming off a 2014 season where he hit 23 HRs, and tied Neil Walker for the most HRs by a second baseman, this is a significant jump and provided fantasy owners with some unexpected extra returns in the power department. On the positive side of the equation this season, his LD% is at a 23.4% rate and his hard hit % is 29.4% which are both career highs. But there are some areas of concern to consider if you want to bet that he keeps up this level of HR production next season.

Clear indications in his hitting profile suggest that he has sold out for extra power. His overall contact rate dropped from a respectable 84.2% last season to 79.3% this season. Dozier is making substantially less contact on pitches outside the zone which has contributed to 3% increase in his K%. He is pulling the ball more than ever, which may account for part of his HR surge, but his Chase Rate is up to 30.7% from 28.4% last season.

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Thanks to you commenters, it’s clear that getting the scheduled starter right for even just two days after I type this is a difficult task for my source. How did it tell me that Adam Conley would start today when he actually started the previous day?! I am using my fantasy site on CBS since the format of the probable starters was easiest to copy to Excel and eventually get into this post. Hopefully there aren’t any more mistakes!

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So as I figured, you guys benefit significantly more from start/sit advice for starting pitchers scheduled the following day. For the rest of my posts this week, that’s what I’ll do. Unfortunately, that means that tonight’s starters won’t get a write-up. However, if you have any questions about who to start or bench today, let me know in the comments and I’ll do my best to monitor and respond while at the office.

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Episode 282

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette meander along the baseball highway on this penultimate Sunday of the regular season. Jason brings up the second-half leaderboards and we hit some surprises scattered on each end of said leaderboards. It’s a pretty chill episode, small technical glitch in the middle, you’ll hear it.

If you have anything you’d like to hear us discuss next week, let us know in the comments. 

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It’s the last week of the season! And that hopefully means that all our wonderful advice will result in a first place finish after the final pitch is thrown this Sunday. But this also means that I was expecting to spend hours tonight trying to figure out what to write about. How does one dole out advice with just one week left in the season?! So I’ll go with an unoriginal daily starting pitcher start/bench theme. Naturally, with everyone in different league formats and sizes, it’s hard to offer a one size fits all recommendation. So I’ll do my best. Also, you’ll notice these are tonight’s matchups. I believe for some of you, you cannot actually pick up and start a pitcher on the same day, so advice on the following day’s pitchers would be more beneficial. If this is indeed your situation, speak up in the comments!

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