Which Pitchers to Start Tomorrow 10/1/15

Thanks to you commenters, it’s clear that getting the scheduled starter right for even just two days after I type this is a difficult task for my source. How did it tell me that Adam Conley would start today when he actually started the previous day?! I am using my fantasy site on CBS since the format of the probable starters was easiest to copy to Excel and eventually get into this post. Hopefully there aren’t any more mistakes!

David Price @ Wei-Yin Chen

Yay on Price, obviously.

Chen has enjoyed a nice year, but it’s mostly fueled by an inflated LOB%, rather than excellent skills. The Blue Jays have the best offense in baseball against lefties (and righties too, of course), leading the league in walk rate and ISO against them, and also amazingly striking out at the third lowest rate. I just wouldn’t trust Chen here. Play him in AL-Only if you have to, but that’s it.

Stephen Strasburg @ Ryan Weber

Man, I tried hard to buy low on Strasburg when he returned from injury the second time and before he began his ridiculous current run. Oh well, I should win that league anyway 🙂 He probably won’t end up being undervalued next year now because of this insane finish. Automatic start.

Weber has posted an intriguing ground ball rate, but his strikeout rate and potential is pathetic. With just a 4.8% SwStk% and 12.5% strikeout rate at Triple-A, I don’t want him anywhere near my team, even if it was a Weber-only league.

Jason Hammel @ John Lamb

You wouldn’t know it from ERA, but SIERA tells us this is Hammel’s best skill season of his career. Only the home run ball has caused him issues. Start him against a team that has been in the bottom 10 in wOBA against righties this year.

The left-handed throwing Lamb has been clobbered by a .380 BABIP, but hidden behind that is 52 strikeouts in 45 innings, thanks to an excellent assortment of non-fastball pitches. The Cubs have posted the worst strikeout rate in baseball against lefties. I’d start Lamb, even in 12-team mixers.

Andrew Heaney @ Derek Holland

Heaney’s ERA has bounced back after being victimized by the home run ball last year, but his skills have remain unchanged. The Rangers are mediocre against lefties, so this is a tough call. Bench him in 12-team mixed, start him in AL-Only, your call on 15-team mixed.

Holland missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, but his velocity is fine. Unfortunately, he’s not generating swings and misses or strikeouts, so something may still be amiss. The Angels stink against lefties though and have posted the lowest BABIP mark against them in the league. He’s a similar call to Heaney, start in AL-Only, bench in 12-team mixed, your call in 15-team mixed.

Brett Anderson @ Tim Hudson

OMG, Anderson is likely going to set a new personal career high in innings pitched in an MLB season! Unfortunately, his strikeout rate sits at a career low, but he’s made up for it with gobs of grounders. The Giants are average against lefties, but it’s driven by a high BABIP and low strikeout rate. Nothing too scary. I’d start Anderson in all leagues if you need the potential win.

Hudson is still pitching?! With an ERA over 4.00, a poor strikeout rate and an opposition who has hit very well against righties, he’s a bench decision, unless you’re desperate and need to start him in NL-Only.

Taylor Jungmann @ Ian Kennedy

After an excellent first three months, the wheels finally fell of Jungmann’s bus, as he posted a brutal 7.71 ERA in 25.2 September innings. His skills are meh, but he faces a Padres team who has been surprisingly terrible against right-handers this year. And it’s in a much more pitcher friendly home park than his own. Start Jungmann in anything deeper than 12-team mixed.

The long ball has killed Kennedy’s season, but his underlying skills are strong. With a depleted Brewers lineup in a home start, he’s an all leagues play.

Kris Medlen @ John Danks

Medlen has been acceptable in his return from TJ surgery, but his strikeout rate is easily a career low. The White Sox aren’t any good against righties, but I just cannot trust TJ returnees that quickly in a road start in a hitter’s park. Bench in all leagues.

Danks’ velocity spike was short-lived and he has returned to the weakly skilled pitcher in a hitter’s park. The Royals are fine against lefties, but most of the offense comes from putting the ball in play, which Danks is used to having done to him. I’d start him in AL-Only, but that’s it.

Tyler Duffey @ Josh Tomlin

The rookie Duffey has performed surprisingly well, despite featuring just two pitches. The Indians are mediocre against righties, but it’s a road start for Duffey. I’d start him in AL-Only and that’s it.

Tomlin has been a strike-throwing machine, but who allows an exorbitant rate of fly balls. The Twins’ offense has performed the worst in the American League this year against righties. Start Tomlin in all leagues.

Rich Hill @ CC Sabathia

Seriously Rich Hill? I’d be damned if I had a clue what he is going to do versus a strong offense against lefties in an away game. I have no recommendation here, sorry folks.

Sabathia was another wrong date probable and my conclusion remains the same, that “the Sox are just as potent against lefties, so Sabathia is probably a bench decision in all leagues.”

Jarred Cosart @ Erasmo Ramirez

For a guy who throws in the mid-90s, it’s crazy how low Cosart’s strikeout rate is. The Rays can’t hit righties, but Cosart just isn’t any good. Bench him in all leagues.

The flip-flop of his ground ball/fly ball rate has really helped Ramirez, as has the fantastic Rays defense of course. The Marlins have posted the second worst wOBA against righties in baseball, and that’s with Giancarlo Stanton. Start Ramirez in all leagues.

Steven Matz @ Jerad Eickhoff

Matz is yet another I wrote about yesterday and had the date wrong. He’s an obvious start in all leagues.

Eickhoff has been solid during his rookie campaign, though the fly ball rate scares me. I’d start him in NL-Only, but that’s it.

David Hale @ Patrick Corbin

Hale has posted respectable skills this year, but the D-backs have been pretty good against righties and they’ll be at home. Start Hale in NL-Only, but that’s it.

The Rockies stink against lefties and are terrible away from Coors. Start Corbin in all leagues. He’s made a fantastic return from TJ surgery.

Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Pirates Hurdles
Pirates Hurdles

“I am using my fantasy site on CBS” – there is your problem, what a terrible fantasy site.

I believe Brett Anderson is starting vs COL today.

Pirates Hurdles
Pirates Hurdles

I’m an idiot, confused my Anderson’s; Chase home vs COL today. CBS still sucks though 😉