A Trio of Surprising Performers in 2015

Brian Dozier

Brian Dozier has 28 HRs this season making him the most prolific power-hitting second basemen in the game. Coming off a 2014 season where he hit 23 HRs, and tied Neil Walker for the most HRs by a second baseman, this is a significant jump and provided fantasy owners with some unexpected extra returns in the power department. On the positive side of the equation this season, his LD% is at a 23.4% rate and his hard hit % is 29.4% which are both career highs. But there are some areas of concern to consider if you want to bet that he keeps up this level of HR production next season.

Clear indications in his hitting profile suggest that he has sold out for extra power. His overall contact rate dropped from a respectable 84.2% last season to 79.3% this season. Dozier is making substantially less contact on pitches outside the zone which has contributed to 3% increase in his K%. He is pulling the ball more than ever, which may account for part of his HR surge, but his Chase Rate is up to 30.7% from 28.4% last season.

Looking at his HR production this season at ESPN Home Run Tracker, it appears that his HR numbers may be overrepresented again this year. ESPN’s JE or Just Enough distance designation on HRs hit suggest that he may not be so lucky next season.

Season	HRs	JE HRs	JE%	True Distance on HRs
2015	28	10	36%	384.1
2014	23	10	43%	376.0

 

A JE% of 30 is standard for Major League hitters. There was only a marginal increase in his HR length from 2014 to 2015. It looks like he over performed in HRs in both seasons.

While his new more aggressive hitting profile could produce more HRs on a consistent basis, there is also an equal possibility that his production falls more into line with what should be expected from a hitter with his average bat speed and distance on HRs hit. Dozier still profiles as a power hitting second baseman, but he is not a 30 HR hitter. I’m not convinced that he can keep this present HR pace up next season and I certainly wouldn’t pay for it.

 

Collin McHugh

Colin McHugh has produced a sterling 18-7 record this season for the resurgent Houston Astros after an 11-9 mark in 2014. His success in the win column has been fueled by a team that is now averaging 4.4 runs scored a game after delivering 3.8 last season. In addition, he also started in 6 more games. But while he benefited greatly from a .259 BABIP last season, he also pitched better. McHugh has lost almost a full 1 mph off of his fastball this season and both his slider and curve, which he throws about 40% of the time, have been less effective. The problem with his slider has been very significant and he is getting far fewer swings and misses with that pitch this season.

McHugh’s effectiveness against right-handed hitters has decreased significantly as they have a .334 wOBA and a .288 average against him in 2015 compared to .252 wOBA and a .185 average against last year. The combination of diminished velocity and poor placement with his fastball and his hittable slider are probably the culprits here especially against same-handed hitters. Eno Sarris pointed this out mid-season in his 6/16/15 article, The Change: Colin McHugh and Bad Fastballs.

While the run scoring potential of the Houston Astro’s lineup will be able to cover up some of McHugh’s deficiencies, it would make sense to tread lightly with McHugh next season. You should not be paying for the sterling 18 wins, but you should be factoring in the diminished stuff and his .395 SIERA. If you draft him sensibly next year, he still could be an effective mid-rotation starter for your team.

 

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter has surprised everyone this season with his HR production. He has 27 HRs this season in 151 games played which is more than the 25 HRs he produced over the last 3 seasons and 429 games. This transition to a power producing hitting profile has come at a predictable price. Carpenter saw his overall contact percentage plunge from an elite 95% in 2014 to an 85.8% rate in 2015. His chase rate is up from 17.4% to 23%, although he has been there before. His O-Contact % and Z-Contact % have also dropped with his 85.8% Z-Contact Rate the lowest of his career. As we have seen so many times before with this kind of transition, Carpenter is now pulling the ball at a career high 39% but his hard-hit rate has increased by only 3% and he is striking out at almost a 23% clip. For an in-depth review of Matt Carpenter’s transition, you can read Dave Cameron’s 9-10-15 article, JABO: The Transformation of Matt Carpenter.

The Cardinals hit only 105 HRs as a team in 2014 good for 29^th place among MLB teams. Perhaps with all the injuries in the batting order this season Carpenter felt that he needed to step up the power production. Carpenter’s surge in power from 8 to 27 HRs has contributed significantly to the team’s increase to 134 HRs this season, but despite the power gains the Cards have not scored many more runs.

The question for next season is will Carpenter maintain his new power hitting profile or will he settle back into his normal table setter gap hitter role. There are some conditions that will be outside of his control. For example, even if he commits again to the HR, with 11 of his 27 HRs being of the JE or Just Enough variety, he could see a regression in HR production based on his elevated 40% JE rate. In addition, the Cardinals could decide to move him down the order to take advantage of his run- producing capabilities. This is a situation to watch closely next spring as you try to determine his value to you in 2016.