Which Pitchers to Start Tomorrow 9/30/15

So as I figured, you guys benefit significantly more from start/sit advice for starting pitchers scheduled the following day. For the rest of my posts this week, that’s what I’ll do. Unfortunately, that means that tonight’s starters won’t get a write-up. However, if you have any questions about who to start or bench today, let me know in the comments and I’ll do my best to monitor and respond while at the office.

Gerrit Cole @ Tyler Lyons

SIERA tells us that Cole is the same pitcher as last year, but has simply been more fortunate with fly balls failing to hop over the fence. Still, that pitcher from last year is darn good and he remains an always start guy.

Lyons takes Carlos Martinez’s spot in the rotation and faces a team that ranks just 20th in wOBA against lefties. And that wOBA would be lower if not for the seventh highest team BABIP against southpaws. Lyons has displayed solid skills at both the MLB and minor league level and could be started in deeper mixed and NL-Only leagues.

Jon Lester @ Anthony DeSclafani

Obviously you always start Lester.

As happens with many young pitchers, DeSclafani has been Jekyll and Hyde all season. His overall skills scream streamer and he’ll be facing a solid Cubs offense. His home/away splits are interesting, as he has enjoyed much better skills at home, keeping his xFIP about a run lower there, but his actual ERA is nearly two runs higher at the GABP. I would start him in NL-Only, consider in deep mixed, but bench in anything shallower.

Jordan Zimmermann @ Williams Perez

Start Zimm.

Ya know the intrigue with someone who has two first names? Having two last names is even stranger. Williams Perez, really? Unfortunately, with his poor skill set and inability to miss bats, he might not be in the Majors for much longer. He’s an obvious bench.

Barry Zito @ Garrett Richards

Zito is a fun story, but his skills were poor at Triple-A and he fooled no one in his first three Major League innings since 2013. Pass of course.

Richards’ skills have taken a step back, which is not surprising, but his SIERA is actually higher now than even 2013. Still, the skill set overall remains interesting and it’s a home start against a bottom 10 offense. Start him.

Scott Kazmir @ SEA TBA

Once again, Kazmir has endured a second half slide, though it hasn’t been as dramatic as last season. He was acceptable enough in August, but terrible in September. His strikeout rate has dropped like a rock and you always have to question whether he is completely healthy and/or he’s just losing steam. It’s an away start against a Mariners team that has posted an above average wOBA against lefties. I’d sit Kazmir in shallower mixed leagues and would think long and hard about what to do in deeper mixed. In AL-Only, you gotta roll the dice.

Seattle has yet to name a starter, but he probably won’t be any good.

Edinson Volquez @ Jose Quintana

Volquez is likely to outperform his SIERA thanks to the spiffy Royals defense and home park. Of course, this game is away in one of the league’s top hitting venues, but it’s against a rather weak offense. The White Sox have posted the 25th worst walk rate against right-handers this year and Volquez’s control is always the biggest concern. I’d likely bench him in 12-team mixed and shallower, but start him in 15-team mixed and deeper.

Quintana is having his typically non-flashy, but solid season and will face a Royals team that doesn’t walk or strikeout. You can’t count on many strikeouts then, but he’s certainly worth starting at home in all leagues.

Steven Matz @ Alec Asher

Well man, the Mets have an embarrassment of young pitching riches. Matz hasn’t actually pitched nearly as well as his sub-3.00 ERA would indicate of course, and his poor 8.3% SwStk% makes me question his 22.8% strikeout rate. But he’s facing a weak Phillies offense that relies on BABIP for any semblance of offense against southpaws. Start him.

Alec Asher, 7.52 ERA…START HIM! Just kidding.

R.A. Dickey @ Kevin Gausman

Dickey’s strikeouts have disappeared this year, but it hasn’t spelled doom for him yet. But this might be the beginning of the end and I would want no part of him in any league next season. He should be benched in all leagues except AL-Only, where I am forced to cross my fingers for the sake of my Tout Wars team.

Gausman has been respectable this year, but still hasn’t come close to justifying the hype. Against a ridiculous Jays offense, I want no part of this start.

Wade Miley @ CC Sabathia

The Yankees hit lefties well, but Miley has been solid for a while now after a rough start. Still, in an away start against a team that takes the walk and hits for power, I can’t recommend Miley in anything shallower than 15-team mixed.

I was on the Sabathia bandwagon all year, but pitching on a bum knee seemingly throws all the rules away. The Sox are just as potent against lefties, so Sabathia is probably a bench decision in all leagues.

Mike Pelfrey @ Carlos Carrasco

I could never forgive myself if I gave Pelfrey a thumbs up. Nope.

Thank you poor HR/FB rate luck for making Carrasco slightly cheaper next year. Start him, of course.

Chad Bettis @ Chase Anderson

Bettis actually owns a half decent skill set. But in an away start in a hitter’s park against a team above average against righties means he should be glued to your bench.

Anderson’s changeup hasn’t been nearly as whifftastic as last year, and that’s behind the decline in strikeout rate. But he’s facing a Rockies team that stinks on the road, so he’s a deeper mixed and NL-Only league play.

Mike Bolsinger @ Mike Leake

Surprisingly, the Reds have been below average against righties this year, even despite the resurgence from Votto, and marginal rebounds from Bruce and Phillips. Bolsinger has posted meh skills, which follow his meh minor league skills. Given his ground ball ways, he’s less likely to implode from home runs, but I think I’ll recommend just for NL-Only leaguers to start him.

I guess last year’s strikeout rate spike was a fluke for Leake. So he’s back to the same mediocre ways whose greatest strength is his ground ball rate. So in that vein, he’s a better control, lower strikeout version of Bolsinger. He’s facing a much better offense though, but he’ll be at home. Play him in NL-Only, tough call on 15-team mixed. Definitely bench him in anything shallower.

Adam Conley @ Drew Smyly

Did you know that the Rays have actually posted the seventh best wOBA against lefties this year? Their problem is they can’t hit righties. Conley’s skills have improved from his minor league days, which doesn’t happen often. Bench him everywhere.

Since returning from a shoulder injury, Smyly hasn’t missed a beat. I was skeptical, but he has quieted his doubters. Start him against the Stanton-less Marlins.

Matt Boyd @ Yovani Gallardo

The Rangers are mediocre against lefties, but Boyd has allowed far too many fly balls and has found strikeouts are much harder to come by in the Majors. I ain’t starting him in Texas.

Gallardo’s strikeout rate has now slipped for an amazing sixth straight year. But somehow his ERA hasn’t skyrocketed. The Tigers have been just mediocre against righties this year, but that includes Cespedes’ time with the team and is missing the games Cabrera was out for. Gallardo would make me nervous, so it’s your call on 15-team mixed, but anything shallower I bench him.

Zachary Davies @ Andrew Cashner

Love the grounders, but nothing else for Davies. Bench.

Well this wasn’t what anyone was expecting from Cashner this year. The Brewers weren’t very good against righties even when they had Aramis and Braun, so now without them, they are an easy target. Start Cashner at home in all formats.