There wasn’t too much noteworthy bullpen activity on Saturday, besides Addison Reed’s high-wire act against the Angels, which he and the Mets ultimately survived. Sunday was much the same, save for a few relevant items:

• Koda Glover was the first man out of the Nationals bullpen, and it came with the Nats leading 3-2 with two outs and the tying run on second base in the eighth inning. Despite the fact that lefty Nick Markakis was due up, and left-hander Oliver Perez was getting loose along with Glover, manager Dusty Baker went with the righty and the decision paid off. Glover fanned Markakis on a 96 mph fastball, then, with the same score in the bottom of the ninth, Glover came back out to the mound. He surrendered a leadoff single, but then induced a double-play lineout and a game-ending popup. It was the 24-year-old’s third save of the season, and it came just two days after Shawn Kelley, who was seemingly first in line for saves in a beleaguered Nationals bullpen, pitched in the seventh inning of a tie game. As such, the bullpen situation in Washington remains highly volatile and red. Glover slots into the closer’s spot on the chart for now, but that is subject to change at any moment. Expect future save opportunities to go to one of the two, at least, though neither is a clear long-term favorite.

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Another exciting night of bullpen activity with full slate of games on Friday…

• Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto indicated in an interview on Fantasy Sports Radio that 26-year-old James Pazos could be first in line for save opportunities while Edwin Diaz works through mechanical issues that led to his demotion from the closer’s role earlier this week. Pazos has intriguing numbers across the board in 18.2 innings this year: he boasts a strong 30.9% strikeout rate, a 60.9% ground ball rate, and a tidy 2.41 ERA/2.66 FIP/2.78 xFIP. Diaz was so dominant last season that it remains likely he will eventually harness his mechanics and find his way back into the Seattle bullpen’s most prominent role. He pitched two scoreless innings on Friday, in which he allowed two hits and notched two strikeouts in the eighth and ninth innings of a tie game at home. Despite the scoreless outing, Pazos is worth a speculative add in most formats in case he gets an opportunity to close and runs with it. His numbers seem to indicate that he’s capable of doing so.

• Seung Hwan Oh blew a one-run save opportunity against the Giants on Friday. He allowed two singles and a go-ahead two-run double. Oh is now 10 for 12 in save opportunities, a nice recovery in that department after a very shaky start to the season. However, Oh’s peripherals point to a problem: his 16.3% strikeout rate this year is roughly half of the 32.9% K% he put up last season. He’s also allowed three home runs and nine walks in 21.1 innings. Add it all up, and Oh has an unsightly 4.91 FIP and 5.70 xFIP. Meanwhile, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has been mostly terrific in a set-up role (although he was charged with a blown save in Wednesday’s extra-inning loss to the Red Sox). Rosenthal has a 44.3% strikeout rate in 15.1 innings, and he should represent a threat to the struggling Oh. If Oh can’t turn it around soon, the Cardinals may have to make a move. The situation has been updated to yellow.

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Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon, and Jeurys Familia are on the disabled list. Edwin Diaz, Seung Hwan Oh, Kelvin Herrera, and Sam Dyson have had major difficulties. Greg Holland, Justin Wilson, Corey Knebel, and Bud Norris have been unexpected studs.

If you find yourself frustrated with the volatility of relief pitcher performance, you’re probably not alone. The names above represent just a handful of seemingly dozens of unexpected developments in the relief pitcher landscape that take place throughout the course of season and affect major league rosters and fantasy teams alike.

For example, a few weeks ago, I traded $6 Edwin Diaz and $3 Carter Capps for $9 Mitch Haniger in an Ottoneu fantasy league. Later, I flipped the $9 Haniger for a $9 Gary Sanchez. Read the rest of this entry »

Most of this report was done on Saturday, but there was one major piece of news on Sunday:

• Aroldis Chapman was placed on the 10-day disabled list with rotator cuff inflammation. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that Chapman will rest for a minimum of two weeks, at which time his condition will be re-evaluated, and that Chapman is “probably looking at [missing] a minimum of a month if everything goes right.” Chapman has reportedly been experiencing discomfort in the shoulder since late April, and he had to be removed mid-inning in his last two outings due to ineffectiveness. In Chapman’s place, Dellin Betances will have an opportunity to prove his worth as a closer. Yankees president Randy Levine and Betances’s agent had a public spat in February over the pitcher’s arbitration hearing that determined his 2017 salary. Levine vocalized his opinion that Betances sought too much money for a non-closer. Whether or not he’s accruing saves, Betances is an elite reliever, and now he will have a chance to prove it, at least for a month. If Betances wasn’t already owned in all formats, he should be now. Meanwhile, Chapman should be held onto in all formats, because he is arguably the best reliever in baseball when healthy. The Bullpen Report will continue to provide updates on the situation as they become available.

Now for the notes from Saturday: Read the rest of this entry »

Traditional pitching metrics, such as innings pitched, and pitch counts, have often missed the mark when it comes to preventing pitcher injuries. As a result, I developed the Fatigue Units metric – which shows promise in illustrating how extreme workloads can influence pitchers in the subsequent seasons.

As a quick refresher – Fatigue Units are calculated by looking at an interaction between the number of pitches thrown, the velocity they are thrown at, the time taken between pitches, and the number of days between appearances. In the 2015 and 2016 season – these were your FU leaders.

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Buckle up boys and girls, we have a real closer carousel in Detroit and San Francisco!

• Mark Melancon was placed on the DL today by the Giants with a mild right pronator strain and while it’s not known how long Melancon will be out for, it’s good to hear that it’s “mild” rather than something unnerving like severe. Melancon had apparently been throwing through some discomfort which is a bit disconcerting but the Giants decided  it’s now time to give him some rest. In his place it looks like Derek Law will receive save opportunities  with Hunter Strickland, Josh Osich and George Kontos behind him. Considering Melancon might have been throwing through what ailed him this doesn’t seem to to take him out for too long but saves are saves are saves so Law is worth grabbing if he’s unowned and even if Melancon only misses the minimum. The biggest predictor of injuries is current/past injuries as well so if any of this lingers, Law could be in line for a higher save total than the initial mild diagnosis. While Law is closing he likely won’t have a long leash to start, consider this red.

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• In spite of the Bizarro World the Mets are currently living in, they had a walk-off win today against the Giants. Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins combined to throw a scoreless seventh leading to Addison Reed in the eighth and Jeurys Familia in the ninth, who received the vulture win for his first victory of the year. We had Jerry Blevins as the third in line on the chart, and for good measure as he’s now pitching toa 0.79/1.32/2.35 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line but I feel Hansel Robles would be closer to saves if something were to happen to both Familia and Reed. Thankfully that’s not the case as the back of the Mets bullpen might be the most or only reliable thing on the team right now. Jeurys Familia was a bit shaky immediately upon his return but he’s looking smoother now and this situation is certainly green.

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It was another fun weekend for bullpen activity across the major leagues. There was some all-too-familiar drama for a few teams, an injury to a key closer, and a couple of spectacular performances by an underrated set-up man. Let’s get right into the report:

• Francisco Rodriguez melted down in consecutive games against the A’s this weekend. On Saturday, with a one-run lead and two outs and nobody on in the 9th inning, he issued a walk, a game-tying double, and a walk-off single. On Sunday, also with a one-run lead, K-Rod walked the leadoff man, allowed a game-tying double, then, after a lineout, Ryon Healy hit a walk-off home run. The Tigers closer is now just 7 for 11 in save opportunities, and he’s allowed 19 hits, 11 earned runs, and four home runs in 11 2/3 innings this year. He has a 8.49 ERA/6.55 FIP/4.79 xFIP, and he’s only gotten ground balls on 29.3% of balls in play against him compared to his career mark of 43.3%. Rodriguez’s job should be in jeopardy after the back-to-back blown saves and the overall poor performance this year. Set-up man Justin Wilson has been excellent this season, pitching mostly in the 8th. He has seven holds on the year, and a brilliant 1.32 ERA/1.65 FIP/2.03 xFIP to go along with a 45.7% K%. The situation is “red” in Detroit, with manager Brad Ausmus saying after Sunday’s game that the team is going to discuss its closer situation during tomorrow’s off day, which is usually a strong indication that a change is forthcoming.

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• Even a 12.60 ERA and taking the day to become a U.S. citizen can’t keep Fernando Rodney from the ninth inning. J.J. Hoover pitched the seventh and Jorge de la Rosa pitched the eighth, with each allowing a hit and a walk but getting a scoreless inning nonetheless, setting the table for Rodney with a three-run lead.

Rodney, with citizenship in hand pitched a perfect inning for his seventh save. Archie Bradley’s previous usage was of the one inning variety so I thought he might be next in line in the desert, but it looks like Hoover and de la Rosa are setting up. This situation is still red as Rodney’s ERA/FIP/xFIP line still stands at 11.45/5.00/4.30 and if a change were to be made Bradley could still be in play but I’ve put de la Rosa back on the grid in his place. A small congrats to Rodney’s 268th career save and a bigger congrats on what probably was a very, very special day for him.

I'm officially a US citizen 🇺🇸 God bless America & Thank you for the opportunity.
Hijo de Republica Dominicana 🇩🇴 🏹 #Flecha pic.twitter.com/ZyF3xtpDH9

— Fernando Rodney (@F_Rodney56) May 2, 2017

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• Jeurys Familia has not given up many runs (1) since returning from suspension but he is not pitching too effectively either, having allowed six walks in five innings entering today. However, in the ninth this evening Familia pitched a scoreless frame giving up a hit and a double play to end the game. It wasn’t a particularly dominating performance but it’s always nice to see Familia not issue a free pass. On the season Familia now has ten strikeouts against six walks in six innings pitched. He’s very much the Mets closer but I wouldn’t release Addison Reed just yet either. This is mostly due to the fact Reed is quite good in his own right (18 strikeouts without a walk in 14 innings pitched) and also as some insurance in case Familia hits a rough patch. It goes without say that for those in Holds leagues, Reed remains a fairly elite option.

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