I’m not sure of the exact Sleeper and the Bust podcast but Paul and Eno were discussing Jeff Samardzija and how his ERA would look better without a Colorado start. Right now Samardzija’s ERA is 4.31 but if the seven run, five inning start in Colorado is removed his ERA drops to 3.81. I’m not a fan of removing starts from a pitcher’s stats. The good and bad will happen. The deal is that Samardzija owners probably sat him that week like I did in Tout Wars. If owners aren’t going to use pitchers in their Colorado starts maybe owners should start ignoring the stats generated there.

The increase scoring environment in Colorado is about impossible to overcome. In an article at Rotowire ($) last year, I stated the following:

What we do know is that the road pitcher should expect between a 1.00 and 2.00 increase in ERA. I might put the ERA drop near 1.50, but I could understand if an owner wants to use a smaller or larger number. Additionally, I will put the K/9 drop near 0.9 and the WHIP increase at .25.

Those increases are just too much to absorb over an entire season. Sure an owner can get away with a start every now and then but eventually, the odds will even out. Once the hammer drops, an owner will spend a couple weeks trying to recover their overall rate stats.

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• I would be lying if I said I expected Fernando Rodney to still be closing in June but here we are with Rodney launching his 18th arrow tonight against the Tigers. For the season Rodney still has a unsightly ERA at 5.11 but his 4.30 SIERA and 3.96/4.49 FIP/xFIP are at least less terrible. At the end of April Rodney had allowed 14 runs in 10 innings pitched, but since then he’s actually thrown 14.2 scoreless innings across 15 appearances.  A few bad outings could still cause the Diamondbacks to make a change and they have a few compelling alternatives in Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, and J.J. Hoover but Rodney’s leash should be about as strong as a 5+ ERA would allow. I might regret this, but I’m changing this situation to green. God help us all.

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I’m going to continue looking at my recent pERA rankings after writing about starters the last couple of days. Today, I am going to examine the top non-closers. These guys may not be closing now but are showing some promising skills to open the season.

Note: For reference, here are the articles in which I created the framework for the metric (full list).

James Hoyt (2.12 pERA): In a handful of innings, Hoyt has a 43% K% and a 6% BB%. Insane. These raw skills are being masked by a 1.5 HR/FB and .400 BABIP which has pushed his ERA to 4.08.

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Yesterday I put a list of 20 hitting tidbits covering topics and players you might’ve overlooked two-plus months into the season. I’m following that up with a pitcher version today and I was considering doing these on a weekly or bi-weekly basis depending on how useful y’all found them. Let me know in the comments what you think.

Did You Know…?

• OK this first one is crazy. Grab a seat for this doozy. You’ll never believe that Clayton Kershaw is the top pitcher in baseball so far!
• Ervin Santana has a .153 BABIP… One. Fifty. Three. No one has ever come close to posting a full season at that clip
• Sid Fernandez’s .196 BABIP is the best single-season mark (min. 100 IP) since 1960

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6/8/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day (5:30)

• Can you name the top-rated SS on ESPN’s Player Rater?
  • It’s not Zack Cozart, but we do discuss him, too! (12:45)

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Dallas Keuchel to DL again w/neck issue (19:30)
• Jacob Faria debuts for TB – 6.3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 93 mph, 4 pitches (29:00)
• Mike Foltynewicz goes 7 scoreless for 2nd straight start (36:06)

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• Corey Knebel was called on in the ninth and pitched a perfect frame for his sixth save of the year. Before and after taking the closer’s gig from Neftali Feliz, Knebel has been outright fantastic. A 14.2% BB% isn’t ideal but when you combine it with a K% of 45.1% it’s plenty OK. Knebel’s SIERA stands at 2.36 and his ERA/FIP/xFIP after tonight’s outing is 1.24/2.12/2.24. Among qualified relievers his strikeout rate ranks 5th and in spite of the elevate walks his K-BB% still ranks 12th. Knebel was intriguing last year but it’s hard to say anyone saw this coming. I expected the Brewers to be sellers at the deadline and with their recent history of trading relievers I figured Knebel could have been shipped out like Tyler Thornberg last year. Instead the Brewers are in first place and Knebel figures to stay, continue to get saves and rack up strikeouts.

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• Not a standard save in Chicago tonight as Mike Montgomery went 3.1 innings for his second save of the year. Wade Davis had thrown a couple days in a row so Koji Uehara received the save opportunity last night for the Cubs. Wade Davis is now ready to pitch but was actually placed on paternity leave. We won’t take him off the grid for such a short break but look for Uehara to get a look in the ninth if an opportunity arises tomorrow. Montgomery has only pitched out the pen to start the year and although his ERA dropped to 2.21 after tonight’s outing, his 3.78 FIP and 4.29 xFIP and 26 strikeouts against 20 walks in 36.2 innings don’t paint the picture of someone worth rostering at the moment.

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Plenty of compelling bullpen activity around the major leagues on a busy Sunday afternoon…

Koda Glover was brought into an existing eighth inning with a 6-4 lead, two outs, and a runner on second. He retired Jed Lowrie to end the inning, then the Nationals proceeded to score five runs in a long top of the ninth. Despite the 11-4 lead and lengthy half inning, Glover came back out for the bottom of the ninth, and he allowed four straight singles and a walk before being replaced by Shawn Kelley with the bases loaded, no outs, and two runs already in. After retiring Rajai Davis on a shallow fly ball, Kelley served up a grand slam to Matt Joyce that made it 11-10 Nationals. Kelley retired the next two batters he faced to secure the victory. When it was all said and done, Glover was charged with five earned runs in 0.1 innings, and Kelley was charged with one earned run in one inning.

Despite today’s craziness, Glover has brought much-needed calm to the Nationals bullpen as of late. He has four saves since May 24, and before today, he had recorded saves in four straight appearances. This was the first time Glover has allowed a run in 10 appearances since he landed on the disabled list with a left hip impingement in late April. Even with today’s meltdown, Glover has a 1.74 FIP and 3.21 xFIP on the season. A 3.21 xFIP is hardly something to scoff at, and it seems as if the Nationals have finally found their ninth-inning man (although it remains probable they’ll target bullpen help before the trading deadline). The home run Kelley gave up was the seventh he’s allowed in 15 innings this season, and overall, he has a 5.40 ERA and 5.37 xFIP. As such, he has been surpassed on the grid by Matt Albers, who boasts a strong 1.29 ERA and 3.14 xFIP in 21 innings this year. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of quick notes from Memorial Day:

• Tony Watson got the win after Andrew McCutchen hit a walk-off homer which is nice but it also meant that he blew the save (his third of the season) as well. On the year Watson has a very mediocre 4.03/5.31/4.82 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. As a lefty without considerable swing and miss stuff, Watson may not be long for closing in Pittsburgh. Behind him we have Felipe Rivero and Daniel Hudson and I would look to grab Rivero pretty soon if you’re looking for saves. Although he is also a lefty, his 0.68/2.80/2.90 pitching line with nearly a 27% K% is more in line with what one expects out of their closer. Tony Watson might not have much leash left and I’m moving this situation to red as I would rather sound the alarm a tad early over having you pass on placing a bid on Rivero.

• We might have a committee in San Diego. Brad Hand received two save opportunities earlier but the last two, including last night, went to Brandon Maurer. I am going to keep Maurer in the closer’s chair for now as he received the most recent saves and was the closer to start the year. However, Hand showed he could handle the job if Maurer were to falter again. Maurer has a 6.00 ERA but 20 strikeouts against only 4 walks indicates he’s actually pitched quite well, in spite of his .351 BABIP and 51.7% LOB%. If Maurer pitches like his underlying numbers indicate, Hand may not see many more save opportunities but a manager won’t be so patient as an ERA climbs up from 6.00.

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Plenty of bullpen-related news and notes on a busy Sunday afternoon. A few noteworthy items from Saturday are mixed in as well…

• With a 5-3 lead against the Nationals, Brad Hand struck out one in a scoreless eighth, and Brandon Maurer retired Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, and Anthony Rendon consecutively in the ninth to secure his sixth save of the season. Maurer was temporarily removed from the close’s role, during which time Hand filled in respectably, but at least for today things went back to normal. Although Maurer has a 6.52 ERA on the season, his peripherals suggest he’s been much better than that. He has an excellent 2.59 FIP and 2.66 xFIP on the season thanks to the fact that he’s only allowed four walks and two home runs in 20 innings this year, to go along with 23 strikeouts. While Hand is an excellent reliever in his own right, Maurer still appears to hold the edge in save opportunities, at least for now. If Maurer falters, however, it appears that the Padres are willing to pivot to Hand at a moment’s notice. As such, Hand worth targeting for those speculative on saves, and he’s certainly worth owning in holds leagues, as he’s on of the better set-up men in baseball.

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