Did You Know? (Pitching Edition)
Yesterday I put a list of 20 hitting tidbits covering topics and players you might’ve overlooked two-plus months into the season. I’m following that up with a pitcher version today and I was considering doing these on a weekly or bi-weekly basis depending on how useful y’all found them. Let me know in the comments what you think.
Did You Know…?
- OK this first one is crazy. Grab a seat for this doozy. You’ll never believe that Clayton Kershaw is the top pitcher in baseball so far!
- Ervin Santana has a .153 BABIP… One. Fifty. Three. No one has ever come close to posting a full season at that clip
- Sid Fernandez’s .196 BABIP is the best single-season mark (min. 100 IP) since 1960
- Robbie Ray sits eighth on ESPN’s Player Rater despite a 5.67 ERA at home in six starts
- Ray counterbalances it with a sparkling 0.64 ERA in six road starts; this is essentially an extreme version of his career (5.45 home, 3.31 road)
- Only Phil Hughes (44%) has a higher Hard contact rate than Ray’s 43% mark
- Rick Porcello (42%), Corey Kluber (42%), and Chris Archer (39%) are also in the bottom 15 for Hard contact
- On the other end you won’t be surprised to find out that Dallas Keuchel is pacing the AL at 20% and Alex Wood leads the NL at 21%, but other interesting standouts include Jordan Montgomery (4th at 24%), Andrew Triggs (7th at 25%), Jaime Garcia (9th at 26%), and Joe Biagini (11th at 26%)
- If we lower the minimum innings to 30, then Jose Berrios rockets to the top with a 20% mark, edging Keuchel by three-tenths when push the decimal out (19.8% to 20.1%)
- Montgomery also sits third to only Zack Greinke (38%) and teammate Michael Pineda (37%) with a 36% O-Swing rate (swings outside the zone, or essentially a “chase” rate); I wrote more about Montgomery earlier this week
- By Pitch Values, Montgomery a top 15 changeup (12th), curveball (13th), and cutter (15th)
- Jaime Garcia (3rd), Antonio Senzatela (7th), and Kyle Freeland (8th) are interesting standouts on the fastball Pitch Value leaderboard
- Masahiro Tanaka sits eighth in O-Swing with a 35% rate, but that’s actually a career-worst (38%, 37%, and 37% in his first three seasons)
- Of the 84 qualified SPs this year, there are 24 with a 1.5 HR/9 or higher; just 9 of the 71 qualified arms
- Jason Vargas is still a Top 10 pitcher by performance this year and while no one thinks the 2.18 ERA continues, he can still be valuable as a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA given that the league average SP ERA is 4.37, highest since 2009
- Some interesting names in the top 20 of K-BB% (min. 40 IP): Jeff Samardzija (3rd at 26%), Alex Wood (6th at 24%), Luis Severino (8th at 22%), Drew Pomeranz (11th at 21%), Nate Karns (14th at 21%), and Trevor Cahill (20th at 20%)
- Severino is essentially Michael Pineda 2.0, virtually matching him across the board with fewer homers
- Sean Manaea has the fifth-best SwStr% rate at 15%
- Kershaw and Max Scherzer were dead even atop the league last year at 15% (well, 15.3% if you want to be a Technical Tommy)
- A velocity spike (career-best 95 mph fastball, +4 mph on his sldier to 86) and pitch mix change (-12% slider, +8% changeup) have yielded big returns for Randall Delgado early on as he’s getting ahead more (career-best 67% first pitch strike rate), generating more chases (32% O-Swing, 4-year high), and limiting righty power (career-low .101 ISO)
- Delgado’s only made three starts, not yet finishing six innings in any of them, but he has 15 strikeouts and just two walks in the 15 IP of work; could be a solid deep league play
- Felipe Rivero is toting a career-best 98 mph fastball while also cutting his walk rate in half from last year to 5%
- Rivero also has his best swinging strike (15%) and groundball (64%) rates ever, meanwhile the Pittsburgh closer’s just opened up with Tony Watson getting removed
- While Seung Hwan Oh has gotten back on track of late, Trevor Rosenthal is outclassing him across the board save a tiny BB% advantage for Oh; Rosy should get the role back eventually
- Joe Smith is striking out 40% of the batters he has faced with the skills to back up the surge (SwStr%, O-Swing%, and F-Strike% improvements)
- Carl Edwards Jr. will give up some walks (13% this yr; career 12%), but he is virtually unhittable with a 2.4 H/9, even better than last year’s filthy 3.8 mark
- Wade Davis has been fantastic in his own right, though, so Edwards is unlikely accumulate any saves, but he holds real value as a middle reliever
- Corey Knebel is essentially what Edwards might look as a closer with a bit of a walk issue, but amazing strikeout and hit rates
- Brandon Kintzler has the third-most saves in the league with 16, but his biggest asset has faded with his groundball rate is down from 62% to 48%
- I wonder if Tyler Duffey could push him for that role; Duffey has added 2 mph to his fastball while spiking his K% (25%) and GB% (51%); he’s currently the 7th inning guy, but he’s an interesting saves spec
I want your job.
Here’s a good one:
J.A. Happ has an xFIP nearly 2 runs below his ERA which is propped up by a 30.8% HR/FB despite an 80.8% strand rate, his SIERA is 3.45. Happ’s FB% is at a career low, while his HARD% is the third lowest of his career.
“Of the 84 qualified SPs this year, there are 24 with a 1.5 HR/9 or higher; just 9 of the 71 qualified arms”
Am I missing something? Seems like there was supposed to be more to this sentence.
Also, these are fun, but monthly is probably as often as you want to do them or else they’re basically just a list of fun facts with no relevance or value, instead of fun facts with a little bit of relevance and value. Keep up the good work!
I love you and Eno and listen to every pod but I think you guys are way off on this rosenthal stuff. Oh is not going anywhere. He is in the top %50 (probably closer to top 25%) of closers in the MLB. We see this every year. Teams do not move from a good closer to go to someone who is pitching better/having a better year who “might” do better than the incumbent once given the role. It just doesn’t happen. Eno had been thinking this will happen for Strickland for years.
And I know this case is slightly different because Rosenthal had the closer job before blowing it last year, so at least he has some track record. But teams just do not move on from a good closer. We see it time and time again and you guys keep falling for it. After getting off to a slightly rocky start, In May + June Oh has a era of 1.13 and over a strikeout an inning.
It would take like 3 straight blown saves from a guy who is clearly a very good to great RP for Rosenthal to get the job. No change is coming here.
These are some of my favorite articles. Either helps confirm interest in guys or add guys to the watch list.
Please keep doing these!
Ray is a guy to sell high on right? If someone is willing to overpay. He has been a guy I have drafted for years, and now that it is finally paying off (no 7 overall pitcher) its certainly worth trading him , right?
Keep this coming. Enjoy these valuable tidbits.