This past weekend was an eventful one for the Cardinals’ bullpen. At the team’s Winter Warmup, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said that Carlos Martínez was ahead of schedule in his return from offseason shoulder surgery, giving momentum to his push to become a starter again. Martínez was slated to begin his road back with a bullpen session on Tuesday, and barring a change in plans, bullpen roles are now up for grabs. Once Jordan Hicks was shelved by a torn UCL and subsequent Tommy John surgery last summer, Martínez took over as closer. He secured 22 of the Cardinals’ 30 saves after Hicks’ season had come to an end.

There was also news regarding Hicks. He is currently tossing on flat ground two or three times a week and could return by the middle of the season. While it seems unlikely that Mike Shildt would put Hicks immediately back in the closer’s role, it does complicate our calculus for determining who (if anyone) we should target from the Cardinals for saves in this year’s drafts. Even if there was a clear successor to Martínez as the team’s closer, that reliever could conceivably get pulled from the role if Hicks made a sufficiently early and strong return.
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Last year, I took a stab at developing what might be loosely defined as park factors using Statcast data. (I called them park “impacts” because they lacked the requisite rigor to be true factors, although it’s all semantics, truly.) I sought to use Statcast’s expected wOBA (xwOBA) metric, specifically on batted ball events (BBEs), such that we would have a measure of xwOBA on contact (or xwOBAcon). This metric accounts for exit velocity (EV), launch angle (LA), and little else — which makes it perfect for this purpose.

The difference between actual and expected wOBA on contact indicates the amount of luck, whether good or bad, a hitter might have incurred on a particular batted ball event. In other words, given ‘X’ exit velocity and ‘Y’ launch angle, what is the most common wOBA outcome, and how much did the actual wOBA outcome differ from it?

The beautiful part about xwOBAcon is it strips away all other context. It removes elements that confound other park factor calculations, such as hitter and pitcher quality or even sequencing (vis-à-vis run-scoring). Except for fielding. Can’t control for fielding, unfortunately.

With this approach, we have the exit velocity. We have the launch angle. We have historical results for that particular combination of EV and LA to use as a benchmark. And then we compare.

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The Braves continued the upgrading of their bullpen, which they began at this year’s trade deadline, by signing Will Smith on Thursday. In inking the lefty to a three-year, $40 million deal with a fourth-year team option, they added a reliever who struck out 96 batters over 65.1 innings and recorded 34 saves for the Giants in 2019. Smith’s ex-teammate (and now new teammate), Mark Melancon, was effective as the Braves’ closer down the stretch this season, but I was probably not alone in assuming that Smith would go into spring training as the team’s new closer.
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After looking at the pitchers and hitters who exceeded expectations, it was time to examine the players who didn’t live up to their ADP. I had a good idea this list would be loaded with pitchers who missed a ton of time and I was correct. Of the 48 pitchers featured, 39 spent time on the IL at some point last season.

To determine who disappointed, I collected the information on any pitcher who saw more than a $10 decline in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. I just analyzed the pitchers who had a positive draft day value.

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A couple of weeks back, I examined why the industry might have missed on some breakout hitters. It was tough to find anything actionable with the hitting breakouts. It’s now time to see any useful information that can be extracted from the pitching side.

I collected the information on any pitcher who finished the season with positive production in a 15-team league and saw more than a $10 jump in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. In all, 46 pitchers made the cut

There were several more categories than hitters butseveral are actionable. One item I ran into was an issue with where to draw a line with the change. Bradley Newman pointed out the mechanical changes Giolito went through to see his production drastically improve.

https://twitter.com/PhillyStars27/status/1187056648877154305

The changes were the root cause but if his plate discipline stayed the same, the adjustments wouldn’t have mattered. Also, it’s tough for the average fan to find out about these adjustments in real-time. The linked article was taken from late-May after Giolito was already universally owned. It was useless for any fantasy owner.
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… but not by much for teams I just owned …

My 2019 fantasy season did not live up to my standards with most of the struggles being self-inflicted. Here are some overarching themes I spotted with each league plus some additional points at the end.

Horrible FAAB management

I ran out of money in almost every league and spent too much FAAB on worthless assets. Looking back over the leagues, the root cause was chasing week-only plays. From my work writing “The Process”, I found out how valuable it is to grind out each week. Additionally, I ran the weekly FAAB projections here so I knew around what it would take to get each. Initially, I got the players and but dropped them a week or two later for better options with little to show for the FAAB spent

I need to set a FAAB limit for chasing week-only plays and just accept it’s fine to miss out on a few players. A week’s advantage is worth the same in week 1 or the final week. The rest of my FAAB can be used for chasing long term improvements. Some players may straddle the long-term and weekly play so the FAAB may come from both the weekly and long term pools. I need to have a plan and stick to it.
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I’ve screwed up. A lot. A few years back, I created a pitching metric called pERA which took each individual pitch’s results (swinging-strike and groundball rate) and combined them into one metric. The problem was that I wrote the article in 2016 and used a formula I created back in 2015 with 2002-2015 data. The juiced ball arrived and I never adjusted the formula for the change. Oopsy.

I felt a little sick when it finally dawned on me that the formula needed updating and ma initial findings are available in this Twitter thread.

I've invested too much time this morning looking into GB%, ERA, and ERA estimators. Two conclusions:

1. Happy Fun Ball has everything messed up. Don't assume any previous assumptions are true.
2. Groundball pitchers are ruling the day.

1/6

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 16, 2019

It finally dawned on me that the formula I was using to evaluate pitchers was off. With strikeouts and walks being equal, groundball pitchers outperform flyball pitchers. With a deadened ball, a high flyball rate meant most flyballs would go for easy outs. Not any more. Now those flyballs go for home runs. It’s time for a little math to show the change.
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There are only four days left in the regular season and the only playoff spot yet to be decided is the AL Wild Card so this will be the last of the Bullpen Reports for the season. We will continue to have coverage specific to bullpens throughout the offseason and we thank you again for checking in here on the regular for your bullpen and closer carousel coverage!

• There was no save situation in Minnesota last night but the Twins went with Tyler Duffey ->Trevor May -> Zack Littell to secure the win and their AL Central title. Taylor Rogers has a hold on the 9th inning with Sergio Romo as a helpful addition in the pen but behind them, Tyler Duffey has really become quite a force with an impressive 2.22./2.90/2.95/2.76 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA pitching line this year. Duffey has been out of the rotation for a couple of years but he’s really starting to flourish in the bullpen this season with a career high velocity of 94 mph  an a fairly insane 28.3% K-BB% and a 15.1% SwStr%. David Laurila spoke with Duffey about how he crafted his curveball earlier this week and it’s worth your time.  Duffey’s curve has become a huge weapon as he’s ditched his other offerings and while Tyler Duffey Relief Ace sounds like a weird statement it’s been true this year and the Twins should enter the post season and 2020 with a far more impressive pen than they had on Opening Day.

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Should you spend for an elite closer?

Earlier this year, I broke down the profitability potential of the starting pitcher tiers. We learned that it was profitable from a return on investment perspective to purchase an “ace” starting pitcher in your auctions and/or drafts. I am referring to the article entitled, “The Case for An Ace”.

Today, I dive into the hit rates and profitability for various relief pitcher tiers. Sure, there will always be hits and busts in each draft round. If you happen to strike the right player, you will be set … and vice versa if you happen to draft a dud. From a game theory perspective, knowing the more profitable price points for players at particular positions (or for particular scoring statistics) is extremely valuable to the shrewd fantasy owner.

In the long run – it is better to know that saves have a better ROI in Round X vs. Round Y, whereas steals have a better ROI in Round W vs. Round Z, etc. Why not maximize your potential sources of profit in fantasy baseball, by being efficient with your draft selections and with your auction dollars? Sure, you are free to draft Aristides Aquino in the 1^st round if you so choose – but it is prudent to keep in your back pocket what the numbers say about what the best investments are.

The Experts / Tout Wars

In my days of playing fantasy baseball, I have come across two opposing strategies regarding closers. Both approaches have been heavily publicized over the years.

• Never. Pay. For. Saves.
• Buy a top closer.

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A belated bullpen report, with notes from Saturday and a few quick hits from the early games today.

• It’s been a rough return for Craig Kimbrel who gave up a homer in his return from the IL on Thursday and then blew the save last night to the Cardinals after allowing home runs to Yadier Molina and Paul Dejong. Kimbrel was on the IL with right elbow inflammation and although his velocity in his most recent outings has been on par with this season (~96 mph) it’s still a tick lower than his previous years. Kimbrel should be able to succeed with that velo but while we gave a pass of sorts earlier on since he didn’t have a full spring training, it’s more likely that Kimbrel will have to adjust with a slight loss rather than expect a return. Joe Maddon said he is worried about Kimbrel’s confidence but when asked if he would turn to Kimbrel again Maddon said “I want to continue to do so.”  The Cubs season is on the brink with little time left but it seems as though Kimbrel will continue to be their main option as save opportunities arise in the final games.

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