Previously, I provided the mid-August Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) update for starting pitchers. We took a deeper look at some rookies and comeback players found atop the wPDI leaderboard. Players such as Brendan McKay, Zac Gallen and Dinelson Lamet were highlighted by their deceptive repertoire.

Now it’s time to tackle the relief pitchers.

You can find the definitions and indexes of wPDI in its introductory article, found here. Here is a quick reminder on what the six possible plate discipline outcomes look like:

Let’s take a look at the 2019 year to date wPDI leaderboards, for relief pitchers [minimum 15 IP]:

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• We mentioned earlier that the Mets bullpen usage might change moving forward and that seems to be the case. Last night Seth Lugo entered in the 8th inning and instead of handing the ball off to Edwin Diaz for the save in the 9th, finished the game himself. We have this as a committee with Lugo and Diaz and it will stay that way with Lugo ahead. Lugo gave up a solo homer which ended an impressive hot streak for him but he’s still their best reliever at the moment and should see more saves than Diaz for the time being. It might not take long for Diaz to find a groove and reclaim the role but for now it’s hard to expect Diaz to have a higher save total moving forward.  I would expect Diaz to enter next year as the closer but there is a long time between now and March.

• A day after being named closer, Mark Melancon gave up a four spot for the Braves while recording just one out and the Braves bullpen situation remains a bit of an issue. Shane Greene blew the lead in extra innings and Chris Martin has had his struggles on the Braves as well. I’m putting this situation into a committee with Melancon, Greene, Martin, and even our old friend Luke Jackson as guys who could see saves moving forward. It’s hard to say who will both see the next opportunity and not blow it, but the Braves have a few options of similar quality, so whoever gets the hot hand should claim the job but for now it’s anyone’s guess.

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Apologies for a belated Bullpen Report but away we go…

• Ken Giles has not been cleared to pitch in back to back days but he got the call last night and secured his 15th save of the season. However, it wasn’t pretty with Giles allowing three hits including a two-run shot by Mike Zunino. Giles struck out a pair and had his fastball at over 96 mph which is both good but also a tick below where he was earlier this year. That’s not surprising given his elbow issues. If fully healthy Giles is a great source of strikeouts and saves but it’s unlikely he has a particularly high usage here on out and should concede a few save chances to Derek Law, putting them both in a committee.

• Happy trails to Greg Holland who was released by the Diamondbacks. He has already been released from our closer grid which includes a committee of Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano, and Yoan Lopez although depending how the next save opportunity goes, we can start shedding the committee tag. Nothing has been said yet but Bradley is definitely ahead of the committee and if he gets the save next it could be him alone in the chair. Greg Holland will likely find another home this year but it’s unlikely that he’s a major factor in saves.

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• Nothing about José Leclerc has been easy this year as he has dominated away from the closer’s chair and struggled mightily while sitting on the thrown. Last night Jesse Chavez pitched in the 9th inning in a tie game with José Leclerc pitching a perfect inning in the 10th. Leclerc got the W when the Rangers scored on a Rougned Odor walk-off shot. Jesse Chavez in the 9th might suggest he has a slight edge but I’m still keeping Leclerc atop of the grid. The Rangers already have him signed long term so they won’t save any money by limiting his saves and their end game is to have him be their closer in the future, which should start now. Although Leclerc’s struggles have been well discussed, the sum of his seasonal line isn’t as bad as one might expect – 4.53/3.52/4.03/3.58 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA with a 21.5% K-BB%. Leclerc’s walk rate will always be suspect his K-BB% is still top 30 in the league among qualified relievers.

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There was a busy deadline with changes among several bullpens so let’s get started!

• Luke Jackson had (another) bad day, getting the start to the 9th inning after struggling in a non-save situation on Tuesday. Jackson allowed the first two batters to reach and was relieved by Sean Newcomb before getting an out. His inherited runs scored inflating Jackson’s ERA to 3.96. Under the hood, Jackson still looks pretty good but he’s been struggling isn’t the most trustworthy at the moment. The Braves went out and got three relievers before the deadline was over – Shane Greene, Chris Martin, and Mark Melancon and all three are now on the grid. It’s a long fall from closer to off the grid, but that’s where Luke Jackson currently lies. Shane Greene takes the job with the esteemed closer experience label in the middle of a terrific season. We chastised the Braves for being a little cheap ealier in the season but by the deadline’s end they acquired Dallas Keuchel for the rotation and a trio of relief upgrades. I don’t expect Chris Martin and Mark Melancon to dip into saves over Greene but they are next in line if something were to happen.

• While there were several trades I will touch up on of equal interest are the teams that made no moves keeping the status quo. Alex Colome will still be closing for the White Sox and Will Smith is still getting saves for the Giants even though they did trade Sam Dyson and Mark Melancon. The Red Sox have had an up and down bullpen all year but decided to skip on making an upgrade, keeping Brandon Workman and their committee as is. The Royals didn’t want to pay to get a prospect out of Ian Kennedy so he will be closing games for the remainder of this year and likely the start of next year as well. The Mets dangled Edwin Diaz but nobody hit their price tag and he remains the closer in Queens. Diaz has struggled a ton this year compared to his dominant past but hopefully he finds some of his magic to close out the year.

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I thought there would be more player movement by now. As of Saturday morning of July 27th, these are my closer ranks. They could easily change as more information becomes available.
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• Greg Holland is code red after allowing two runs and blowing his 5th save last night. Holland’s 3.51 ERA covers up what has been a very mediocre season with a 4.44 SIERA and below average 13.6% K-BB%. Yoan Lopez is next up for the Diamondbacks and I would pick him up if he’s still available and saves are of need. Although a change has not been made, “Lovullo said the Diamondbacks would discuss Holland’s role prior to Saturday’s game.” That’s never what you want to hear, making a Lopez snag all the more worthwhile.

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• Charlie Morton pitched 7 strong innings for the Rays who then went with Adam Kolarek and Chaz Roe in the 8th leading to Emilio Pagan for the 9th. Pagan pitched a perfect frame, striking out a pair for his 7th save of the season. Pagan is still in a committee with Oliver Drake and Diego Castillo involved along with those who pitched today. With that said, Pagan has been the most consistently effective reliever on the Rays all year and isn’t a left. Jose Alvarado should get back into the mix soon when he returns from the IL with an oblique strain but his return isn’t imminent. Even if Alvarado returns soon, he will have to prove his effectiveness before usurping Pagan. While the Rays won’t resort to traditional closer usage it seems like the head of the committee is Pagan’s job to lose, so long as he’s pitching well he should get more saves than any other member of the pen.

• Greg Holland entered the game last night in 9th inning for a save opportunity but was removed after walking the only two batters he faced on 9 pitches. Yoan Lopez got the final three outs without allowing a run to score for his first save of the season. Holland has struggled with his control all season and is running a 5.45 BB/9 on the year after last night’s performance. While his job is fairly safe, I’m going to change it to yellow on the grid since Holland could blow up fairly quick. If anything were to happen to Holland I would put Lopez as the first in line, and behind him it is a bit of a mess. Andrew Chafin has had a solid season but he’s also a lefty. Yoshihisa Hirano has closing experience in Japan and could be in the mix along with Archie Bradley, who has also struggled this year with his control but has long been considered a closer of the future.

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Not much movement this week compared to my last report. I figured some bullpen trades would have occurred by now, but it looks like it will be a busy last 10 days before the traded deadline.

Note: These rankings are based on chances of getting Saves, not pitcher talent.

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Where would those of us who are passionate about full-season Fantasy Baseball be without the counsel of America’s Leading Fantasy Sports Aggregator to guide us? Our hearts accordingly leapt up when we beheld in our In Box last week ALFSA’s “Ten Bold Second Half Predictions.” And about whom were these predictions predicted? Here’s the full list: Matt Olson, Christian Yelich, Justin Smoak, Pete Alonso, Kenta Maeda, J.D. Martinez, Brandon Woodruff, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Eloy Jimenez.

Thanks, podnuh; we’ll rush right out and grab all those guys. Look—as we see it, a Bold Prediction must also be a Useful Prediction, and for anyone in a redraft league, a Useful Prediction is one involving a player who might actually be available. With this in mind, we present our own Bold Second Half Predictions, confident that most if not all these guys will be available for cheap in most if not all leagues. Five pitchers today, then five hitters tomorrow: Read the rest of this entry »