I’ve screwed up. A lot. A few years back, I created a pitching metric called pERA which took each individual pitch’s results (swinging-strike and groundball rate) and combined them into one metric. The problem was that I wrote the article in 2016 and used a formula I created back in 2015 with 2002-2015 data. The juiced ball arrived and I never adjusted the formula for the change. Oopsy.

I felt a little sick when it finally dawned on me that the formula needed updating and ma initial findings are available in this Twitter thread.

I've invested too much time this morning looking into GB%, ERA, and ERA estimators. Two conclusions:

1. Happy Fun Ball has everything messed up. Don't assume any previous assumptions are true.
2. Groundball pitchers are ruling the day.

1/6

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 16, 2019

It finally dawned on me that the formula I was using to evaluate pitchers was off. With strikeouts and walks being equal, groundball pitchers outperform flyball pitchers. With a deadened ball, a high flyball rate meant most flyballs would go for easy outs. Not any more. Now those flyballs go for home runs. It’s time for a little math to show the change.
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There are only four days left in the regular season and the only playoff spot yet to be decided is the AL Wild Card so this will be the last of the Bullpen Reports for the season. We will continue to have coverage specific to bullpens throughout the offseason and we thank you again for checking in here on the regular for your bullpen and closer carousel coverage!

• There was no save situation in Minnesota last night but the Twins went with Tyler Duffey ->Trevor May -> Zack Littell to secure the win and their AL Central title. Taylor Rogers has a hold on the 9th inning with Sergio Romo as a helpful addition in the pen but behind them, Tyler Duffey has really become quite a force with an impressive 2.22./2.90/2.95/2.76 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA pitching line this year. Duffey has been out of the rotation for a couple of years but he’s really starting to flourish in the bullpen this season with a career high velocity of 94 mph  an a fairly insane 28.3% K-BB% and a 15.1% SwStr%. David Laurila spoke with Duffey about how he crafted his curveball earlier this week and it’s worth your time.  Duffey’s curve has become a huge weapon as he’s ditched his other offerings and while Tyler Duffey Relief Ace sounds like a weird statement it’s been true this year and the Twins should enter the post season and 2020 with a far more impressive pen than they had on Opening Day.

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Should you spend for an elite closer?

Earlier this year, I broke down the profitability potential of the starting pitcher tiers. We learned that it was profitable from a return on investment perspective to purchase an “ace” starting pitcher in your auctions and/or drafts. I am referring to the article entitled, “The Case for An Ace”.

Today, I dive into the hit rates and profitability for various relief pitcher tiers. Sure, there will always be hits and busts in each draft round. If you happen to strike the right player, you will be set … and vice versa if you happen to draft a dud. From a game theory perspective, knowing the more profitable price points for players at particular positions (or for particular scoring statistics) is extremely valuable to the shrewd fantasy owner.

In the long run – it is better to know that saves have a better ROI in Round X vs. Round Y, whereas steals have a better ROI in Round W vs. Round Z, etc. Why not maximize your potential sources of profit in fantasy baseball, by being efficient with your draft selections and with your auction dollars? Sure, you are free to draft Aristides Aquino in the 1^st round if you so choose – but it is prudent to keep in your back pocket what the numbers say about what the best investments are.

The Experts / Tout Wars

In my days of playing fantasy baseball, I have come across two opposing strategies regarding closers. Both approaches have been heavily publicized over the years.

• Never. Pay. For. Saves.
• Buy a top closer.

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A belated bullpen report, with notes from Saturday and a few quick hits from the early games today.

• It’s been a rough return for Craig Kimbrel who gave up a homer in his return from the IL on Thursday and then blew the save last night to the Cardinals after allowing home runs to Yadier Molina and Paul Dejong. Kimbrel was on the IL with right elbow inflammation and although his velocity in his most recent outings has been on par with this season (~96 mph) it’s still a tick lower than his previous years. Kimbrel should be able to succeed with that velo but while we gave a pass of sorts earlier on since he didn’t have a full spring training, it’s more likely that Kimbrel will have to adjust with a slight loss rather than expect a return. Joe Maddon said he is worried about Kimbrel’s confidence but when asked if he would turn to Kimbrel again Maddon said “I want to continue to do so.”  The Cubs season is on the brink with little time left but it seems as though Kimbrel will continue to be their main option as save opportunities arise in the final games.

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• After a string of scoreless appearances, Kenley Jansen struggled again last night allowing three baserunners and two runs for his 8th blown save this season. Jansen’s seasonal line (3.81/3.57/3.71/3.19 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA) isn’t particularly bad but it’s far from the relief ace we have grown accustomed too and since July 16th, Jansen has a 5.23 ERA and 3.78 SIERA. Jansen’s job is secure but I’d be more concerned about his status next year. Jansen has a recent history of early season struggles and velocity concerns, and while he has mostly put those in the rear view mirror, if he continues this trend with slightly diminished stuff next year, he may not make it to May as a closer.

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After the shocking news broke of Felipe Vazquez’s arrest, Pirates saves will be earned by someone else in the bullpen over the final week and a half of the season. Fantasy owners don’t even have to play in deep leagues to speculate here, but luckily, all the candidates are lightly owned.

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Yesterday, I discussed the idea of picking up current dominant relievers in your keeper league who could potentially close next year. Cheap closers are gold in mono leagues, especially if they could hold onto the role all season. Now we’ll flip to the guys who could join the starting rotation next season, but aren’t currently. These are all young pitchers who have posted at least a 25% strikeout rate. The idea here is if you’re in a keeper league, you could pick up these pitchers, some of which have little current season value, for cheap and potentially end up with a starting pitcher heading into the season with solid upside.

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If you’re in a keeper league who could potentially keep players picked up through the end of the season, or just enjoy discovering the newest crop of relievers with eye-popping strikeout rates, let’s discuss some possible future closers. I’m basically filtering for non-closer relievers with elite strikeout rates and not-terrible walk rates, suggesting they could become dominant closers in the future, or at the very least, earn some positive value in deeper mixed or mono leagues from their strikeouts and strong ratios alone.

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• James Karinchak, the newly called up reliever on the Indians with the fabulous strikeout rates made his seasonal debut last night against the Twins in a low leverage situation down in the 9th and he didn’t disappoint getting four outs with three via strikeout. In 27.1 IP across AA and AAA this year, Karinchak struck out an incredible 64 batters, and yes, you are reading that correctly. While I don’t expect Karinchak to post a K% near 60% in the majors, he will undoubtedly pile on the strikeouts and could find himself in high leverage work in Cleveland. Brad Hand has a long leash but he has had a few warts this season and while Tyler Clippard and Nick Goody have been pretty solid, they don’t have the ceiling as someone with Karinchak’s arsenal. If Karinchak is throwing multi-inning mini-Hader outings in the 7th and 8th innings in close games, I wouldn’t be shocked.

• Elsewhere in the Twins and Indians double header, Taylor Rogers was called on for a five-out save and struck out four batters en route to his 26th save. Rogers started out the season as a low key relief ace and he has since forced himself as a main part of the discussion. Although he’s a lefty, Rogers has become a shutdown reliever who can go multi-innings if need be and now sits at a 2.64 SIERA and 28.6% K-BB% which ranks 10th and 11th among qualified relievers in the MLB this year. Rogers should enter next season as the Twins closer and a top 10 option off the board. In the second game of the double header, there was no save situation but top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol pitched two perfect frames with three strikeouts and received the first win of his career. Graterol has filthy stuff and could be a compelling end of season relief option for strikeouts before likely seeing more of the rotation next season.

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• Brad Hand wasn’t available to pitch last night with an arm injury that demanded a MRI which thankfully came back clean but it might be several days until Hand is back in his familiar role in the 9th. A save situation arrived for the Indians last night though and they went with a three-headed committee with Nick Wittgren, Oliver Perez, and Adam Cimber each recording an out in the 9th. Although Hand hasn’t been too dominant of late and is dealing with an injury, he’s still their closer. In his place while he gets back should be a committee of the aforementioned along with Tyler Clippard and Nick Goody who pitched in the 7th and 8th innings respectively last night.

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