The Closer Thoughts for 2022 Drafts Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Strategy Section
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The lockout makes this position the most uncertain on the fantasy diamond. With the lack of December and January moves, there is still so much unsettled in the closer market. To give you an idea of just how wild things are, my #14 RP is in the same bullpen as my #1, but I firmly believe Craig Kimbrel will be traded before the season starts so I’m treating him as a pretty impactful closer right now. I’ll start with a standard 1-70 ranking of relievers and then give 1-2-3 outlook of each team based on how things set up right now.
A few days ago, I wrote an article examining Reid Detmers. For Detmers, I posted the following table on comparable curveballs and the lack of results.
There are a myriad of differences between valuing players and general drafting strategy for a 15-team (or deeper) league versus a 12-team (or shallower) league but I believe the starkest ones lie at reliever. Since this makes doing ‘one-size fits all” rankings particularly difficult, here are a few notes about how I approached them. Read the rest of this entry »
1/16/22
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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the first base position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.
You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/
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Those who have been smart enough to pick up a copy of the 2021 Baseball HQ Forecaster (and likely posted a picture of it to their Twitter) have already read through the “Other Diamonds” portion of the text. It’s my favorite part. In it, there is a section called Paradoxes and Conundrums and it states that a player’s year to year improvements can be labeled as, “a point in a growth trend, an isolated outlier or a complete anomaly…” I loved that line when I read it. But, so much strange happened in 2020 and I think it should have some say. In this post, I’ll go over three pitchers who increased their K% from 2020 to 2021 but whose gains might be skewed by the 2020 season. Two of these pitchers really just rose back up to where they were in 2019. An increase in K% is wonderful but is it a trend, an outlier, or, to incorporate my own twist, to be expected?
The age of the reliever is going to continue in 2022, if early ADP is any indication, with much of the position gaining steam as we move deeper into the offseason. And given how diluted the position continues to be as saves get less concentrated by each individual, is it that surprising?
Whether for saves now, or rare-earth metals in a dystopian future, it’ll usually behoove you to adjust your expectations about what people are willing to do when it comes to acquiring scarce resources.
The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Jeremy Hefner, New York Mets
Interview
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