Reliever K% Heat Check

The age of the reliever is going to continue in 2022, if early ADP is any indication, with much of the position gaining steam as we move deeper into the offseason. And given how diluted the position continues to be as saves get less concentrated by each individual, is it that surprising?

Whether for saves now, or rare-earth metals in a dystopian future, it’ll usually behoove you to adjust your expectations about what people are willing to do when it comes to acquiring scarce resources.

Looking at drafts in NFBC through November (n=42) to those after December (n=41), moves are certainly being made:

Sure, there are the big movers like Will Smith or the Corey Knebel hype-train but it seems like the whole position has gone full-Oprah on moving up at least a little…”You move up a round! And you move up a round! And you, and you, and you!”

You’ll have to strike earlier and earlier if you want to lock down your backend, so let’s take a look at the strikeout rates of the relievers above and see which ones can be trusted in 2022. Whiffs aren’t everything and sometimes opportunity is just as important but closers with less cheese in their pocket often walk a finer line in keeping those opportunities.

Here are the relievers who were drafted in the top-350 of either of our ADP groups, along with their K% and SwStr% in total for 2021, as well as by half. Swinging-strike rate calculated using all whiffs, as well as foul tips, and may be different than where listed elsewhere. Also included are the differences between halves and for reference, the current Depth Charts projection for saves. When considering rate changes, note that Joe Barlow (3 IP) and Corey Knebel (6 IP) had few appearances in the first half.

No reminder is needed for how good Josh Hader and Liam Hendriks have been but the RP steam does start at the top. Both have jumped about 20 spots in ADP since 2021 when they were also the first two relievers being taken. Even still, their juice might be worth all that squeeze.

Since emerging from the journeyman outback in 2019, Australia’s second-most loved Liam has collected 77 saves for two teams, with a 39.7% K% (18.3% SwStr%) and 2.08 ERA (1.95 FIP) over 181.1 IP. And his strikeout trajectory has stayed upward, with his K% and SwStr% (both in and out of the zone) increasing in each subsequent season. Playing on what is again expected to be a contender and playing for the oldest of the old school managers, expect Hendriks to yahoo seriously get heaps and heaps of opportunities to pile up saves and Ks.

Throw another Schoop on the barbie:

We all know how silly Hader’s strikeout rate is, posting over a 45% K% in three of the past four seasons, with his 45.5% K% from 2021 staying virtually identical from half to half. His SwStr% also stayed steady but his in-zone SwStr% went to nuclear post-break. Hader’s 25.1% zSwStr%  in 2021 led all qualified pitchers but a 22.3% zSwStr% in the first half (t-4th) rose to a fairly ridiculous 29.5% zSwStr% in the second. That not only led all pitchers but was ahead of Hendriks in second-place by six points.

And somehow Hader’s heater got even hotter, averaging 96.4 mph in 2021, up from 94.5 mph in 2020 and 95.5 mph in 2019.

Can you feel that heat, Fernando?

Emmanuel Clase may have only run a 26.5% K% in 2021 but I think his stuff says the ceiling is yet to come. An 18.2 SwStr% was up from 12.2% SwStr when we last saw him in 2019 and increased from 17.3% in the first half to 19.2% in the second. But where those whiffs increased makes me bullish for a bigger breakout.

Clase’s whiffs out of the zone actually decreased slightly in the second half, dropping from 21.7% to 19.8%. But the big leap came in the strike zone, with his 12.4% zSwStr% and 17.8% zWhiff% jumping to an 18.8% zSwStr% and 23.7% zWhiff%. And his slider and 101 mph cutter not only get plenty of whiffs but also generate a lot of groundballs, clocking in respectively at 60.0% GB% and 71.3% GB%.

Again, we’re talking about trying to hit a 101 mph (seam-sifted) cutter paired with a mid-90s slider. No, seriously…How?!

Emmanuel Clase, 101mph Fastball and 94mph Slider, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/zW0Gkb9ZG3

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 27, 2021

The problem with Clase at such an elevated draft price is a tale as old as time. Or at least as old as Cleveland because counting on the Guardians to afford Clase plenty of opportunities may prove foolhardy.

No reliever has gotten more jiggy wit ADP than Will Smith, who has jumped about 30 spots and has an average in December as high as his minimum in November. Atlanta should again be excellent and Smith has no real competition for saves. There aren’t any warning signs that cast doubt on him again booking an ~30% K% but his likely ratios make me heavily question paying such a heavy toll.

While you consider, how about some prince on prince crime?

If you thought Liam Hendriks was nice at a 35 ADP, you’re gonna love Ryan Pressly at 69, who is in very similar circumstances in terms of team excellence/manager oldness. Pressly is basically how you draw up a top-five RP, as he should get piles of opportunities, with great ratios and a +30% K%. Outside of the top-two, Pressly is as safe of a pick as you’re going to get at the position.

This hook won’t bring Christian back:

Aroldis Chapman’s strikeout and swinging-strike rates didn’t budge from half to half but his whiffs in the zone were a different story. Chapman dropped from a 22.0% zSwStr% and 33.7% oSwStr% in the first half to a 17.1% zSwStr% and 27.1% zWhiff% in the second.

103 mph still plays, tho:

His increased trouble with right-handers is also worrisome; from 2015 to 2019, RHH posted a .241 wOBA (.238 xwOBA) and .257 SLG (.255 xSLG) against Chapman but have a .321 wOBA (.313 xwOBA) and .418 SLG (.396 xSLG)  since the start of 2020. I’m not saying he’s an avoid but a Loasiaga-handcuff in deeper leagues might be a prudent hedge.

He’s stayed steady so far but can we all please do our part to keep Jordan Romero out of the top-100? Romero increased his strikeout rate from 29.4% K% in the first half to a 38.5% K% in the second, also increasing from a 14.6% SwStr% to a 17.2% SwStr%.

Romano’s whiff rates stayed steady in the zone but not outside of it, running an 18.6% oSwStr% in the second half that was up five points from the first. Breaking it down by pitch, Romano’s four-seamer went from 9.9% to 14.1%, while the slider jumped 10 points from 19.3% to 29.6%.

He’s a Jay, not a Ray but Romano has as much upside as anyone being drafted near him, with the ability to run his fastball, mustache, and anger all up to 100.

The Camilo Doval hype train is rolling and I expect it to keep doing so as we march towards (hopefully) spring training. But even though Doval ended his rookie year in dominant fashion, posting a 0.00 ERA over 27 IP in September, I have a hard time putting as much trust in him for 2022 as the crowd does. Just as a refresher, prior to that September run, Doval had a 6.39 ERA (6.25 FIP) over his first 13 IP in the majors and a 4.99 ERA (4.98 FIP) over 30.2 IP at Triple-A.

Doval’s slider is a weapon and helped lead him to an overall 15.2% SwStr%, but an 11.0% zSwStr% is far below average. And while his four-seamer averaged 98.6 mph, it also took a fairly straight line to get there, with movement that was 18% less than average on the vertical plane and 58% less on the horizontal plane.

Between the above and a deposed Jake McGee still lurking, a top-150 ADP for Doval will likely be too rich for my blood.

But still, good luck with that slider, mon frere:

This is the part of the story when I get really excited about David Bednar but then remember he’s a Pirate and promptly morph into the saddest of pandas. But first the good!

Bednar has dirty stuff,  posting a 29.8% K% on a 15.6% SwStr% in the first half before rising up to a 36.5% K% and 20.3% SwStr% in the second half. His oSwStr% went up by four points and this zSwStr% rose by five points, with both rates ranking in the top-five among qualified relievers.

He dropped his splitfinger usage from 28% to 9%, replacing most of them with more curveballs, which posted a 44.0% CSW in the second half – the highest rate among all relievers (min 100). But his curveball didn’t just get strikes, it also generated tons of poor contact, with batters running a 63.6% GB% against it, just edging out Joe Kelly for the top slot.

Bite down, this may hurt:

But now for the bad news double-whammy that often comes with being a good reliever in Pittsburgh. For one, it might not matter how lights out Bednar is if the Pirates are not often in a position to afford him consistent save opportunities. And for two, no matter how good Bednar is, the trading sword of Damocles will likely hang over his value right up until the trading deadline.

Remember when Richard Rodriguez was one of fantasy’s top closers last season, collecting 14 saves before the end of July? And do you remember how he finished with those same 14 saves after being traded to Atlanta?

Sigh…If anyone needs me, I’ll just be over here weeping softly.