2025 End Of Season Closer Report
Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
A few days ago, I asked for help to double-check this season’s initial closers (full 2024 edition).
Here are the results, starting with the initial closers and their performance.
Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
A few days ago, I asked for help to double-check this season’s initial closers (full 2024 edition).
Here are the results, starting with the initial closers and their performance.
In early June, Alex Chamberlain graced us with a FanGraphs article about Brendon Little and a new concept called, “Implied Miss Distance”. Chamberlain, along with Baseball Prospectus writer/researcher Stephen Sutton-Brown, have done some great work utilizing Statcast bat tracking data, giving readers a new perspective on something like a swing and miss. But, back in early July, nearly a month after Chamberlain wrote about Little’s amazing knuckle-curve and it’s ability to make hitters whiff so hard that the outfield flag flutters, hitters stopped chasing the pitch. They were tired of looking silly and would no longer budge, allowing us to imply nothing:
If it wasn’t for Chamberlain’s article, I wouldn’t have known about Little or his knuckle-curve. But that’s why FanGraphs is the best, and when I recently watched the Blue Jays and their relievers’ deteriorating August WHIP, I heard the broadcasters mention Little’s falling O-Swing, or chase, rate.
If you only focused on Little’s knuckle-curve and the damage hitters have done to it in each month of the season, as you see in the table below, you wouldn’t think twice about the pitch’s performance:
Month | KC | Total Pitches | KC% | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mar/Apr | 96 | 218 | 44.0% | .194 |
May | 111 | 229 | 48.5% | .176 |
Jun | 119 | 243 | 49.0% | .212 |
Jul | 103 | 193 | 53.4% | .192 |
Aug | 76 | 193 | 39.4% | .146 |
Sep/Oct | 51 | 119 | 42.9% | .257 |
Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 knuckle curves in any of the last five seasons, Little’s 2025 wOBA of .188 is a fringe top 20 (25th) out of nearly 200 pitchers. Last season, Little got even closer to the top 20 mark (23rd) with a .186 wOBA on the pitch. But the broadcast never said anything about Little getting hit; they were focused on the lack of chase and, therefore, an increased BB%:
The chart above includes all of Little’s pitches. By isolating the O-Swing% to only his knuckle-curve, we can see that this overall drop in hitters’ chasing after Little’s offerings wasn’t solely because of them spitting at that specific pitch:
Thanks to the incredible addition of the Pitch-Type Split Leaderboard by the FanGraphs web team, we can now view the averages of individual pitches with ease. In 2025, among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 knuckle curves, the league average O-Swing% currently sits at 35.5%. Little’s mark on the season is 36.5%. Rolling averages are different from season averages, and when Little’s chase rate rolling average dipped, so did the chase rolling average of his two other pitches:
Chart 4 – Rolling KC, FC, SI Chase% Comps
The straight red line indicates times when Little stopped throwing his cutter. It’s interesting to see how the line stopped running horizontally around the same time his knuckle-curve was at its worst. Unfortunately, it didn’t fill the chased pitch gap, and that 40-50 game mark fell around early to mid-July when Little’s WHIP went upwards:
Month | KC% | WHIP | K-BB% |
---|---|---|---|
Mar/Apr | 44.3 | 1.31 | 26.8 |
May | 48.5 | 0.98 | 17.3 |
Jun | 49.0 | 1.42 | 15.7 |
Jul | 53.4 | 1.60 | 21.3 |
Aug | 39.4 | 1.65 | 0.0 |
Sep/Oct | 42.9 | 1.65 | 10.0 |
Hitters weren’t getting boosted wOBA’s from Little’s lack of chase, but the 1.65 WHIP (5.97 eqiuv. ERA) meant they were hitting his other pitches and walking more. I’ve been rambling on about Little for more than a few paragraphs now, and you’re probably waiting for the point. The point? The point is, pitchers need to adjust when a pitch that used to be chased no longer gets chased. They know that. We know that. Yet, it’s difficult to keep track of on the fan side of things. Pitchers will go about adjusting in all sorts of ways.
In Little’s case, it was really just a blip. If you go back up to the graph showing individual pitch chase rates, you may notice that Little’s usage of the cutter, even if it wasn’t chased, allowed the chase rate on his knuckle-curve to jump back up. Hitters did a great job of laying off Little’s knuckle-curve from around games 30 to 70, but excellence is when a pitcher can adjust in the moment to hitters. That’s robotic. So, let’s!…get!…robotic! For the remainder of this article, I’ll present a detection system that can run daily to capture when a pitcher’s most used fastball and most used secondary are in good or bad rhythm using individual pitch plate discipline metrics. Here’s an example from Little’s 40 to 80 game span:
Game Number | Rolling_CStr%_SI | Rolling_Chase%_KC | Performance |
---|---|---|---|
41-50 | 26.8 | 23.4 | Ok (Adjusting) |
51-60 | 21.1 | 25.8 | Bad |
61-73 | 16.9 | 21.8 | Bad |
The table is just a summary of what you see in Chart 4 above, but it’s designed to be placed in an automated system. If chase is up on one pitch and called strike is up on another, that’s good. If both pitches are falling to generate either chase or called strikes, well, that’s bad. Categorizing the balance between his sinker’s called strike rate and his knuckle-curve’s chase rate is as simple as creating rule-based logic:
conditions = [
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%']-3 > final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%']-3 > final_df['smart_median_cstr']),
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%'] <= final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%'] >= final_df['smart_median_cstr']),
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%']+3 < final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%']+3 < final_df['smart_median_cstr']), (final_df['Rolling_Chase%'] >= final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%'] <= final_df['smart_median_cstr'])
]
# Define the corresponding categories
categories = [
'Excellent',
'Ok (Adjusting)',
'Bad',
'Ok (Adjusting)'
]
Using the pitcher’s median values allows the categorization to detect improvements by each individual. I’m using “smart” medians to call the league median if a player has a zero value. That happens when they haven’t generated any chase or called strikes. If we use Brendon Little’s game logs to isolate his performance during those game periods from the table above, we see some pattern in a very small sample:
Game Number | WHIP | K-BB% |
---|---|---|
41-50 | 0.91 | 32.3% |
51-60 | 2.10 | 0.0% |
61-73 | 1.33 | 15.4% |
Little was at his best when he was in decent balance. This is the type of tracking that could be useful when streaming pitchers or looking for hot relievers. To test this out on a grander scale, I built a dataset that includes data from the last two months. This keeps the sample limited to more recent performance. Furthermore, I limited the data to only pitchers with more than 60 total pitches thrown in that time. Then, I took each pitcher’s most utilized fastball by pitch percentage and used it to calculate their called strike rate. I did the same with each pitcher’s most utilized offspeed, or non-fastball, pitch and used it to calculate their chase rate. I then calculated each pitch’s 15-game rolling rate, called strike for fastballs and chase for non-fastballs, and labelled their performance balance. Finally, I counted the number of days in which a player has been either good (balanced) or bad (unbalanced) and found the current status of players in both groups:
Player | Rolling CStr% | Rolling Chase% | Days of Excellence |
---|---|---|---|
Emilio Pagán | 14.4 | 31.7 | 5 |
Dennis Santana | 32.1 | 24.3 | 2 |
Tanner Scott | 14.0 | 22.3 | 2 |
Jared Koenig | 32.2 | 22.0 | 3 |
Yerry De los Santos | 21.7 | 20.0 | 2 |
–
Player | Rolling_CStr% | Rolling_Chase% | Days of Poor Performance |
---|---|---|---|
David Robertson | 7.7 | 12.9 | -16 |
Carlos Hernández | 0.0 | 4.0 | -2 |
Trey Yesavage | 23.1 | 16.2 | -1 |
Joe Rock | 31.8 | 18.5 | -1 |
Andrew Hoffmann | 12.8 | 0.0 | -2 |
The results focus on a pitcher’s most recent stretch. For example, Emilio Pagán has had one of his best K-BB% (22.4%) marks of his career this season, and in his last five games, it’s been even better (26.3%). He’s had recent success thanks to his four-seam and splitter working in unison.
Is there more to do? Always. I’ve only compared fastball called strike rates with offspeed chase rates, but all of these plate discipline metrics could be compared for balance. For example, it may be better to have a balanced swinging strike rate and chase rate. But, fundamental to this analysis is the assumption that it’s hard to get anywhere without a fastball and offspeed pitch that work well together. Does it mean anything? Is the balance even predictive of future success? Maybe, maybe not. What it certainly can do, as I believe I’ve exemplified here, is explain a pitcher’s success or lack thereof. If you are interested in doing this analysis on your own without spending hours calling and pinging pybaseball’s API, you can view pitch-specific plate discipline metrics on our new and totally awesome Pitch-Type Splits Leaderboards. Stay balanced, stay cool.
Happy Friday, and welcome to the first Pitcher Playing Time Changes rundown of September! As always, there’s a lot to go over, with the injury hits continuing to come and teams like the Mets making significant rotation changes.
Name | Team | Old PT | New PT | PT Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew Alvarez | WSN | 1% | 14% | 13% | Welcome to MLB! |
Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | 2% | 15% | 13% | Back from IL |
Kai-Wei Teng | SFG | 4% | 13% | 9% | Took Whisenhunt’s spot |
Valente Bellozo | MIA | 1% | 10% | 9% | Moving to rotation |
Caden Dana | LAA | 8% | 16% | 8% | Took Anderson’s spot |
Luis Severino | ATH | 10% | 18% | 8% | Back from IL |
Pablo López | MIN | 11% | 17% | 6% | Back from IL |
Jason Alexander | HOU | 11% | 16% | 5% | Keeping rotation spot with Arrighetti out |
Adam Mazur | MIA | 8% | 13% | 5% | Up from AAA |
Carson Seymour | SFG | 6% | 11% | 5% | Holding onto rotation spot |
Brandon Sproat | NYM | 1% | 6% | 5% | Making MLB debut Sunday |
Luis Garcia | HOU | 8% | 13% | 5% | Back from IL |
Mike Burrows | PIT | 18% | 13% | -5% | Back inbullpen hybrid/piggyback role |
Roki Sasaki | LAD | 6% | 0% | -6% | Still struggling on rehab, probably won’t have a spot |
Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | 10% | 3% | -7% | Optioned to AAA |
Carson Whisenhunt | SFG | 14% | 5% | -9% | Back strain |
Kodai Senga | NYM | 18% | 8% | -10% | Getting skipped, could be optioned to AAA |
Mick Abel | MIN | 13% | 2% | -11% | Optioned to AAA |
MacKenzie Gore | WSN | 19% | 6% | -13% | Shoulder inflammation |
Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | 14% | 0% | -14% | Elbow inflammation probably ends regular season |
Chris Paddack | DET | 17% | 2% | -15% | Moved to bullpen |
Aaron Civale | CHC | 19% | 3% | -16% | In bullpen after waiver claim |
Edward Cabrera | MIA | 18% | 0% | -18% | Elbow sprain almost certainly ends year |
Tyler Anderson | LAA | 19% | 0% | -19% | Probably done for year with oblique strain |
Name | Team | PT Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|
Joel Payamps | MIL | 425% | Contract selected |
Roansy Contreras | COL | 317% | Claimed from BAL, should get long look |
Kyle Harrison | BOS | 225% | Path back to MLB this year is likelier as RP |
Tylor Megill | NYM | 92% | Return is likelier to be as RP than SP at this point |
Trevor Megill | MIL | 79% | Should return after minimum IL stay |
Chris Martin | TEX | 68% | Back from IL |
Trey Yesavage | TOR | 67% | Could make playoff roster as RP |
Fraser Ellard | CHW | 49% | Back from AAA |
Ryan Brasier | CHC | 47% | Starting rehab assignment |
Alex Vesia | LAD | 39% | Began rehab assignment |
Michael Soroka | CHC | 36% | Throwing 95 in bullpen session, could be relief weapon when healthy |
Ryan Thompson | ARI | 36% | Back from IL |
Dustin May | BOS | 33% | Moved to bullpen/hybrid role |
Alex Cobb | DET | 33% | If he (finally) makes Tigers debut, will be as RP |
Chris Murphy | BOS | 33% | Back from AAA |
Robert Gasser | MIL | 32% | Moved to bullpen on rehab |
Brock Stewart | LAD | -33% | Cortisone injection stalls rehab |
Jordan Hicks | BOS | -35% | Shoulder injury |
Sam Moll | CIN | -41% | Optioned to AAA |
James McArthur | KCR | -100% | Still not on rehab, season looks over |
Shelby Miller | MIL | -100% | Likely needs TJ |
Yimi García | TOR | -100% | Season-ending elbow surgery |
Carson Fulmer | LAA | -100% | Moved to 60-day IL |
Jason Adam | SDP | -100% | Season-ending knee injury |
Tyler Zuber | MIA | -100% | Moved to 60-day IL |
Randy Rodríguez | SFG | -100% | Elbow sprain, recommended for TJ |
Beau Brieske | DET | -100% | Shut down for season with elbow injury |
Happy Friday, and welcome to the last Pitcher Playing Time Changes of August! We’re running out of time on the regular season, which means a lot of pitchers are running out of time to return from injuries. Others, however, like Chris Sale, will come back and at least get the consolation prize of ending the year healthy and having pitched in MLB games.
Name | Team | Old PT | New PT | PT Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luis Morales | ATH | 1% | 16% | 15% | Excelling in rotation |
Osvaldo Bido | ATH | 1% | 12% | 11% | Moved to rotation |
Tanner Gordon | COL | 6% | 17% | 11% | Took Senzatela’s rotation spot |
Tyler Wells | BAL | 2% | 11% | 9% | Returning from IL on Tuesday |
Chris Sale | ATL | 12% | 19% | 7% | Back from IL on Saturday |
Ian Seymour | TBR | 3% | 10% | 7% | Took Boyle’s rotation spot |
Kumar Rocker | TEX | 6% | 12% | 6% | Helping to cover for Eovaldi |
Jacob Latz | TEX | 1% | 7% | 6% | Helping to cover for Eovaldi |
Nick Lodolo | CIN | 11% | 17% | 6% | Back from IL |
Ryan Weathers | MIA | 5% | 10% | 5% | Nearing return from IL |
Germán Márquez | COL | 13% | 18% | 5% | Back from IL |
Javier Assad | CHC | 4% | 9% | 5% | Taking Taillon’s spot |
Mick Abel | MIN | 8% | 13% | 5% | Recalled from AAA |
Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | 15% | 10% | -5% | Temporary moved to bullpen |
Tylor Megill | NYM | 7% | 2% | -5% | Fit in rotation when healthy is unclear |
Joey Estes | ATH | 8% | 3% | -5% | Herniated disc |
Cal Quantrill | ATL | 16% | 11% | -5% | Could lose spot to Sale after rough performance |
Ryan Gusto | MIA | 13% | 7% | -6% | Could lose spot to Weathers when he returns |
Victor Mederos | LAA | 8% | 1% | -7% | Shoulder inflammation |
Jameson Taillon | CHC | 18% | 11% | -7% | Groin strain, should be minimum IL stay |
Joe Boyle | TBR | 15% | 6% | -9% | Optioned to minors |
Brandon Young | BAL | 11% | 0% | -11% | Moved to 60-day IL, done for year |
Walker Buehler | BOS | 14% | 2% | -12% | Moved to bullpen |
Jack Perkins | ATH | 16% | 3% | -13% | Shoulder strain |
Antonio Senzatela | COL | 17% | 2% | -15% | Moved to bullpen |
Austin Gomber | COL | 19% | 0% | -19% | DFA’d |
Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | 19% | 0% | -19% | Rotator cuff strain, done for year |
Jacob Lopez | ATH | 19% | 0% | -19% | Flexor strain, probably done for year |
Name | Team | PT Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|
Alek Manoah | TOR | 333% | Bullpen might be the only spot for him when off IL |
Kevin Herget | NYM | 213% | Recalled from AAA |
Emerson Hancock | SEA | 200% | Recalled from AAA, in bullpen for first time |
Chayce McDermott | BAL | 183% | Moved to bullpen in AAA, has impressed |
Walker Buehler | BOS | 100% | Moved to bullpen |
Brian Van Belle | TBR | 86% | Recalled from AAA |
Dauri Moreta | PIT | 63% | Recalled from AAA |
Justin Bruihl | TOR | 37% | Recalled from AAA |
Yimi García | TOR | -31% | Running out of time to get healthy |
Richard Fitts | BOS | -32% | Nerve irritation |
Jordan Romano | PHI | -32% | Finger inflammation |
Nick Sandlin | TOR | -33% | Running out of time to get healthy |
Kyle Harrison | BOS | -33% | Hasn’t impressed enough in AAA |
Brant Hurter | DET | -42% | Optioned to AAA |
Osvaldo Bido | ATH | -43% | Moved to rotation |
Alex Vesia | LAD | -45% | Oblique strain |
Ryan Brasier | CHC | -47% | Groin strain |
Drew Rasmussen | TBR | -47% | Should stick in rotation despite innings limit |
Grant Anderson | MIL | -49% | Ankle tendinitis |
Bennett Sousa | HOU | -49% | Elbow inflammation |
John Rooney | HOU | -52% | Elbow inflammation |
Trevor Megill | MIL | -56% | Mild flexor strain |
Graham Ashcraft | CIN | -57% | Forearm strain |
Jack Perkins | ATH | -64% | Should stick in rotation |
Reed Garrett | NYM | -74% | Elbow inflammation |
Randy Rodríguez | SFG | -78% | Elbow sprain |
Jonathan Loáisiga | NYY | -100% | Done for year but won’t require surgery |
Joe Ross | PHI | -100% | Released |
Andrew Heaney | PIT | -100% | DFA’d |
Frankie Montas | NYM | -100% | UCL surgery |
Welcome to the latest Pitcher Playing Time Changes, headlined by a significant shakeup in the Phillies rotation due to Zack Wheeler’s potentially-season-ending injury. Below are the latest changes.
Name | Team | Old PT | New PT | PT Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Taijuan Walker | PHI | 5% | 18% | 13% | Wheeler injury keeps rotation spot locked down |
Parker Messick | CLE | 6% | 16% | 10% | Called up to MLB |
Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | 5% | 12% | 7% | Getting stretched out for full starts |
Carson Whisenhunt | SFG | 7% | 13% | 6% | Roupp injury reopens rotation spot |
Antonio Senzatela | COL | 11% | 17% | 6% | Back from IL |
Johan Oviedo | PIT | 9% | 15% | 6% | Back from minors |
Martín Pérez | CHW | 11% | 16% | 5% | Sticking in rotation with Burke optioned |
Bryce Miller | SEA | 13% | 18% | 5% | Back from IL |
Joey Cantillo | CLE | 13% | 4% | -9% | Optioned to AAA |
Sean Burke | CHW | 17% | 7% | -10% | Optioned to AAA |
Landen Roupp | SFG | 16% | 4% | -12% | Knee injury |
Erick Fedde 페디 | ATL | 19% | 6% | -13% | Moved to bullpen |
Zack Wheeler | PHI | 20% | 4% | -16% | Upper extremity blood clot |
Andrew Heaney | PIT | 19% | 1% | -18% | Moved to bullpen |
Name | Team | % Chg in Proj. RP IP | Reason |
---|---|---|---|
Craig Kimbrel | HOU | 460% | Coming back to MLB |
Walker Buehler | BOS | 225% | Team considering move to bullpen |
Richard Fitts | BOS | 175% | Back in MLB, working out of bullpen |
Jacob Webb | TEX | 70% | Activated from IL |
Justin Slaten | BOS | 41% | Began rehab assignment |
Chris Martin | TEX | 36% | Working through PFPs (calf injury) |
John King | STL | 35% | Began rehab assignment |
Robert Stephenson | LAA | 32% | Began rehab assignment |
Alexis Díaz | LAD | -31% | Optioned to AAA |
Cam Sanders | PIT | -31% | Optioned to AAA |
Luis Mey | CIN | -32% | Optioned to AAA |
Jonathan Loáisiga | NYY | -58% | Seeking second opinion for flexor strain |
DL Hall | MIL | -59% | Oblique strain |
Dustin May | BOS | -64% | Likelier to stay in rotation with Buehler unsettled |
Taijuan Walker | PHI | -100% | Wheeler injury |
Connor Brogdon | LAA | -100% | DFA’d + elected FA |
Ryan Borucki | PIT | -100% | DFA’d + elected FA |
Jon Gray | TEX | -100% | Thoracic outlet syndrome |
Emmanuel Clase | CLE | -100% | Return feels unlikely |
Josh Hader | HOU | -100% | Postseason return still possible |
Anthony Bender | MIA | -100% | Season-ending knee injury |
It’s stretch run time, and contenders are continuing to reevaluate who can best help them win now — even involving some players who teams thought might be more win-later than win-now, like Nolan McLean. Here’s what’s changed in the past week.
Name | Team | Old PT | New PT | PT Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nolan McLean | NYM | 5% | 13% | 8% | Making first MLB start Saturday |
Victor Mederos | LAA | 1% | 8% | 7% | Taking Kochanowicz’s rotation spot |
Landen Roupp | SFG | 9% | 16% | 7% | Back from IL on Friday |
Chris Sale | ATL | 5% | 12% | 7% | Began rehab assignment |
Yoendrys Gómez | CHW | 1% | 7% | 6% | Took Cannon’s rotation spot |
Chase Dollander | COL | 10% | 16% | 6% | Back from AAA |
Joey Estes | ATH | 3% | 8% | 5% | Could take SP5 spot, though Morales is also an option |
Javier Assad | CHC | 2% | 7% | 5% | Back from IL |
Ryan Bergert | KCR | 9% | 14% | 5% | Sticking in rotation with Lorenzen back |
Chase Burns | CIN | 9% | 4% | -5% | Grade 1 flexor strain |
Logan Henderson | MIL | 6% | 1% | -5% | Elbow inflammation |
Carson Whisenhunt | SFG | 13% | 7% | -6% | Sent to AAA |
Michael King | SDP | 17% | 11% | -6% | Knee inflammation |
Shane McClanahan | TBR | 7% | 0% | -7% | Season-ending nerve surgery |
Anthony DeSclafani | ARI | 16% | 7% | -9% | Thumb inflammation |
Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | 15% | 6% | -9% | Sent to AAA |
Frankie Montas | NYM | 12% | 3% | -9% | Moved to bullpen |
Zach Eflin | BAL | 11% | 0% | -11% | Season-ending back surgery |
Bailey Falter | KCR | 16% | 5% | -11% | Moved to bullpen |
Jonathan Cannon | CHW | 17% | 5% | -12% | Sent to AAA |
Colton Gordon | HOU | 14% | 2% | -12% | Sent to AAA |
Carlos Carrasco | ATL | 13% | 0% | -13% | DFA’d |
Luis Severino | ATH | 19% | 6% | -13% | Strained oblique |
Name | Team | % Chg in Proj. RP IP | Reason |
---|---|---|---|
Luinder Avila | KCR | 333% | Recalled from AAA |
Bailey Horn | DET | 320% | Recalled from AAA |
Bailey Falter | KCR | 243% | Pitching out of bullpen |
Logan Evans | SEA | 242% | Bryce Miller nearing return |
Tylor Megill | NYM | 175% | Bullpen is a possibility when he returns |
Juan Morillo | ARI | 125% | Has moved up the depth chart |
Colton Gordon | HOU | 117% | Bullpen is the likeliest place for him if he returns from AAA |
Robert Gasser | MIL | 113% | Bullpen is the likeliest place for him if he returns this year |
Hayden Harris | ATL | 100% | Dominating AAA |
Bobby Miller | LAD | 88% | Pitching well since move to bullpen in AAA |
Michael Kopech | RP | 71% | Nearing return from IL |
Cam Booser | RP | 50% | Back from AAA |
Cristian Javier | RP | -39% | Should stick in rotation |
Hunter Harvey | RP | -44% | Strained groin |
Brock Stewart | RP | -45% | Shoulder inflammation |
Quinn Priester | RP | -46% | Will stick in rotation, surely |
Josh Hader | RP | -62% | Shoulder strain |
Zack Littell | RP | -100% | Will stick in rotation |
Félix Bautista | RP | -100% | Season-ending shoulder injury |
In our first Pitcher Playing Time Changes roundup since the Trade Deadline, let’s take a look at how the moves made changed how many starts and relief innings we can expect for pitchers down the stretch:
Name | Team | Old % | New % | PT Chg | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Anthony DeSclafani | ARI | 3% | 16% | 13% | Took Kelly’s rotation spot |
Jack Perkins | ATH | 1% | 12% | 11% | Took Sears’ rotation spot |
Nestor Cortes Jr. | SDP | 4% | 14% | 10% | Healthy and in rotation |
Cade Povich | BAL | 6% | 15% | 9% | Back from IL, took Morton’s spot |
Dustin May | BOS | 4% | 13% | 9% | From LAD bullpen to BOS rotation |
Mike Burrows | PIT | 7% | 16% | 9% | Pitching well enough to hold onto rotation spot |
Hurston Waldrep | ATL | 3% | 10% | 7% | Pitched well in Bristol, taking rotation spot |
Cristian Javier | HOU | 6% | 12% | 6% | Nearing IL return, though rehab assignment isn’t going great |
Cam Schlittler | NYY | 10% | 16% | 6% | Stroman release allows him to keep rotation spot |
Richard Fitts | BOS | 12% | 7% | -5% | May took his rotation spot |
Tanner Houck | BOS | 5% | 0% | -5% | Tommy John surgery |
Troy Melton | DET | 6% | 1% | -5% | Moved to bullpen |
Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | 10% | 5% | -5% | Rotation spot might not exist when he’s healthy |
Michael Soroka | CHC | 11% | 6% | -5% | Shoulder strain |
Antonio Senzatela | COL | 18% | 13% | -5% | Blister |
Zach Eflin | BAL | 16% | 11% | -5% | Yet another back injury |
JP Sears | SDP | 13% | 8% | -5% | Sent to AAA |
Jon Gray | TEX | 9% | 3% | -6% | Should stick in bullpen with Kelly addition |
Brandon Walter | HOU | 8% | 2% | -6% | Elbow inflammation |
Tyler Mahle | TEX | 7% | 1% | -6% | Won’t throw off mound for a couple more weeks |
Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | 17% | 10% | -7% | IL’d with illness |
Kumar Rocker | TEX | 14% | 6% | -8% | Kelly took his rotation spot |
Joey Estes | ATH | 11% | 3% | -8% | Not pitching well at all in AAA |
Randy Vasquez | SDP | 13% | 3% | -10% | Sent to AAA |
Marcus Stroman | NYY | 18% | 0% | -18% | Released |
Name | Team | % Chg in Proj. RP IP | Reason |
---|---|---|---|
Bryan Hudson | CHW | 400% | From MIL AAA to CHW MLB |
Troy Melton | DET | 219% | Moved to bullpen |
José Ureña | MIN | 167% | Part of rebuilt Twins bullpen |
PJ Poulin | WSN | 148% | Welcome to MLB! |
Kumar Rocker | TEX | 138% | Bullpen might be the only place for him to get back to MLB this year |
Dauri Moreta | PIT | 123% | Back from AAA |
Joe Ross | PHI | 93% | Back from IL |
Yosver Zulueta | CIN | 92% | Back from AAA |
Luis García | HOU | 83% | Bullpen might be the spot for him when healthy |
Walker Buehler | BOS | 83% | How long will he survive in rotation? |
Isaiah Campbell | BOS | 73% | Brought back up from AAA |
Shinnosuke Ogasawara | WSN | 71% | Brought back up from AAA |
Orlando Ribalta | WSN | 48% | Brought back up from AAA |
Andrew Hoffmann | ARI | 43% | Should get long look in ARI bullpen |
José Alvarado | PHI | 35% | Nearing return from suspension |
Michael Lorenzen | KCR | 33% | Bullpen might be the spot for him when healthy |
Thomas Hatch | MIN | 30% | Part of rebuilt Twins bullpen |
Nick Sandlin | TOR | -31% | Return from elbow inflammation unclear |
Tim Herrin | CLE | -32% | Sent to AAA |
Bowden Francis | TOR | -33% | Roster fit unclear when healthy |
Jacob Webb | TEX | -33% | Return from back spasms unclear |
Jonathan Loáisiga | NYY | -34% | Back tightness |
Ian Hamilton | NYY | -35% | Sent to AAA |
Jake Bird | NYY | -35% | Sent to AAA |
Lyon Richardson | CIN | -36% | Sent to AAA |
Colton Gordon | HOU | -36% | Pitching well in rotation |
Chris Devenski | NYM | -42% | Outrighted |
Kirby Yates | LAD | -43% | Back discomfort |
Nestor Cortes Jr. | SDP | -46% | Should stick in rotation |
Dustin May | BOS | -48% | Should stick in rotation |
Daniel Robert | PHI | -48% | Sent to AAA |
Seth Halvorsen | COL | -49% | Elbow strain |
Brad Lord | WSN | -56% | Pitching well since move to rotation |
Joe Jiménez | ATL | -58% | Injury setback |
JT Brubaker | NYY | -71% | Released |
Anthony DeSclafani | ARI | -77% | Moved to rotation |
Tanner Houck | BOS | -100% | Tommy John surgery |
Adrian Houser | TBR | -100% | Big acquisition cost, should stay starting |
Shane Baz | TBR | -100% | Should stick in rotation |
Trevor Rogers | BAL | -100% | Pitching excellently in rotation |
Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | -100% | Will have rotation spot waiting when healthy |
Kevin Ginkel | ARI | -100% | 60-day IL (shoulder) |
Trent Thornton | SEA | -100% | Torn Achilles |
Jacob Lopez | ATH | -100% | Pitching excellently in rotation |
Justin Lawrence | PIT | -100% | Has been throwing side sessions but might not be enough time to get back |
Below are the latest significant projected playing time changes for pitchers, led by the Cardinals entering something of a new era for their rotation with Michael McGreevy taking over for Erick Fedde 페디.
Name | Team | Old PT | New PT | PT Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael McGreevy | STL | 7% | 16% | 9% | Taking Fedde’s rotation spot |
Joey Wentz | ATL | 3% | 11% | 8% | Has been getting stretched back out as SP |
Richard Fitts | BOS | 6% | 13% | 7% | Holding onto rotation spot with Houck setback |
Brad Lord | WSN | 3% | 9% | 6% | Moved to rotation |
Joe Boyle | TBR | 6% | 12% | 6% | Taking Bradley’s rotation spot |
J.T. Ginn | ATH | 5% | 10% | 5% | Should stick in rotation for a bit, percentage could go up if trades are made |
Tanner Gordon | COL | 1% | 6% | 5% | Taking Márquez’s rotation spot |
Germán Márquez | COL | 19% | 13% | -6% | Biceps tendinitis |
Hayden Birdsong | SFG | 16% | 10% | -6% | Optioned to AAA amidst control issues |
Tanner Houck | BOS | 12% | 5% | -7% | Pronator injury setback |
David Festa | MIN | 16% | 9% | -7% | Shoulder inflammation |
Taj Bradley | TBR | 18% | 10% | -8% | Sent to AAA |
Erick Fedde | STL | 16% | 0% | -16% | DFA’d |
Name | Team | % Chg. In Proj. RP IP | Reason |
---|---|---|---|
Nick Anderson | COL | 92% | Will have contract selected |
Kyle Hart 하트 | SDP | 73% | Has been pitching well out of bullpen since call-up |
Edgardo Henriquez | LAD | 72% | Called up with more bullpen injuries |
Tanner Houck | BOS | 69% | If he returns this year, might not have time to get stretched out |
David Robertson | PHI | 53% | Signed to $6M deal, should be up early August |
Alexis Díaz | LAD | 53% | Called up with more bullpen injuries |
Mason Fluharty | TOR | 49% | Called back up |
Trevor Richards | ARI | 47% | Contract selected to help out in bullpen |
Bowden Francis | TOR | 44% | Might not be a rotation spot for him when healthy |
Jon Gray | TEX | 36% | Back from IL and pitching out of bullpen |
Andre Granillo | STL | 33% | Called back up to replace Fedde on roster |
Caleb Boushley | TEX | 32% | Should stick with Martin hurt and eat innings |
Brad Lord | WSN | -39% | Moved to rotation |
Joe Ross | PHI | -41% | Back spasms |
Javier Assad | CHC | -43% | Should have rotation spot when off IL |
Joe Boyle | TBR | -46% | Moved to rotation |
Tanner Scott | LAD | -54% | Elbow inflammation |
Richard Fitts | BOS | -54% | Should stick in rotation |
Eric Lauer 라우어 | TOR | -54% | Pitching too well in rotation to move out |
Luke Jackson | TEX | -67% | DFA’d |
Derek Law | WSN | -100% | Flexor surgery |
Max Kranick | NYM | -100% | Tommy John surgery |
Ryan Burr | TOR | -100% | Shoulder surgery |
Below are the latest significant playing time projection changes for starters and relievers over the past week. The biggest news is Cam Schlittler‘s call-up, with his debut coming at the unfortunate cost of Clarke Schmidt’s UCL.
Name | Team | Old PT | New PT | PT Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Schlittler | NYY | 1% | 11% | 10% | Called up to replace Schmidt |
Shinnosuke Ogasawara | WSN | 3% | 8% | 5% | Taking Williams’ rotation spot |
Stephen Kolek | SDP | 12% | 6% | -6% | Sent to AAA + Darvish back, King soon |
Jameson Taillon | CHC | 18% | 11% | -7% | Calf strain, out about a month |
Trevor Williams | WSN | 11% | 0% | -11% | UCL surgery |
Didier Fuentes | ATL | 14% | 0% | -14% | Sent back to AAA after looking nowhere near ready |
Clarke Schmidt | NYY | 15% | 0% | -15% | Tommy John surgery |
Name | Team | % Chg in Proj RP IP | Reason |
---|---|---|---|
Carson Fulmer | LAA | 206% | Back in MLB as innings-eating reliever |
Rico Garcia | NYM | 154% | Has pitched well since call-up |
Kolby Allard | CLE | 150% | Back in MLB to take Herrin’s spot |
Scott Alexander | SFG | 127% | Back in MLB |
Andrew Saalfrank | ARI | 100% | Back in MLB after gambling suspension |
Bailey Horn | DET | 100% | Pitching well since callup |
Blake Treinen | LAD | 53% | Making good progress in return from injury |
Chris Murphy | BOS | 49% | Has quickly become key member of bullpen |
Jordan Wicks | CHC | 35% | Should continue to work in Flexen-y innings-eating role |
Ben Casparius | LAD | 33% | Back to bullpen with Glasnow back |
Joey Lucchesi | SFG | 33% | Miller injury means his lefty-ness is important |
Ryan Thompson | ARI | -31% | Scap strain |
Mark Leiter Jr. | NYY | -31% | Fibular stress fracture |
Shelby Miller | ARI | -32% | Forearm strain |
Michael Soroka | WSN | -33% | Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year |
Alex Lange | DET | -33% | Setback in rehab |
Tim Herrin | CLE | -34% | Sent to AAA |
Erik Miller | SFG | -36% | Elbow sprain |
Michael Kopech | LAD | -44% | Meniscus surgery |
Liam Hendriks | BOS | -46% | Transferred to 60-day IL amidst setback |
Janson Junk | MIA | -46% | Pitching great since move to rotation |
Hunter Strickland | LAA | -60% | Shoulder inflammation, on 60-day IL |
Joey Wentz | MIN | -80% | DFA’d |
Trevor Williams | WSN | -100% | UCL surgery |
Mitchell Parker | WSN | -100% | Likelier to stick in rotation with Williams out for year |
Slade Cecconi | CLE | -100% | Pitching like rotation mainstay |
T.J. McFarland | ATH | -100% | DFA’d + elected FA |
Zach Pop | NYM | -100% | DFA’d |
Ryne Nelson | ARI | -100% | Pitching too well to move back to bullpen |
On Sunday, I read the following comment on Rotoworld about Chase Burns‘ start:
His fastball was located well, but, as has been true in his first two starts, he doesn’t get tons of whiffs on the pitch. He had eight whiffs on 55 total fastballs in this one, with a whopping 16 foul balls. His fastball has below average extension and simply isn’t as elite of a pitch against big league hitters who can handle high velocity.
Sure enough, his four-seamer has generated just a 7.6% SwStk% despite the pitch averaging a scintillating 98.2 MPH. So it got me thinking about perceived velocity, which extension affects. If a pitcher is throwing 95 MPH, but the batter perceives the pitch’s velocity to actually be 97 MPH, or perhaps 93 MPH, that should matter, right? I would therefore think the gap between perceived and actual velocity would influence the pitch’s whiff rate and the pitcher’s strikeout rate. So I decided to dive in and find out if that theory is true.