Closers are probably the most exciting, frustrating position to deal with from a fantasy perspective. No other position is as fundamentally shaped by managerial discretion. No other position sees player value fluctuate so wildly. Last year, baseball’s most dominant closer, Mason Miller, lost his job to  Robert Suarez at the trade deadline, for reasons wholly unrelated to performance–Suárez simply had performed admirably as closer, and the Padres preferred not to mess with their bullpen hierarchy, even if Miller was their best reliever. This offseason, Suárez himself appears to have already lost his closing job for reasons unrelated to performance, as he has opted for a setup role with the Braves.

This article ranks the closers for saves-only leagues for 2026. These rankings will be updated roughly once a week to reflect the latest happenings. The rankings will shift based on trades, free agent signings, team news, rumors, new projections, sufficiently persuasive reader feedback, and my own arbitrary whims. The list will grow longer as the offseason progresses.

Changelog

• 3/19/2026
  • This will be the final update for 2026. There was no major movement, but I made some small tweaks. Good luck this season; May thy closer’s knife neither chip nor shatter.
    • I lowered Carlos Estévez to tier four. Even though his velocity will likely rebound somewhat during the regular season, his projections are underwhelming enough where it’s hard to justify going any higher.
    • Clayton Beeter has looked great this spring. His velocity is down slightly, but his K% minus BB% is 36%.
    • Robert Garcia has had a dominant spring training, with normal velocity and a 42% K% minus BB%.
    • The messy Brewers situation did not resolve itself during spring training. Trevor Megill still looks likely to be dealt in-season, but it would not surprise me if he receives the bulk of save opportunities until then.
• 3/14/2026
  • One team reporter views Jojo Romero as likely closer to start the season, while another sees the situation as unresolved.
    • Riley O’Brien was predominantly used as closer ahead of Jojo Romero over the final three weeks of the 2025 season, but the situation appears dicier entering 2026. Romero remains a midseason trade candidate, but nothing appears imminent. O’Brien has struggled in his tiny spring training sample. I have bumped Romero just ahead of O’Brien in this update, but it’s close to a toss-up for me.
  • The Twins closing situation remains indecipherable.
    • Taylor Rogers is still my top pick here, but it’s a messy situation with no clear favorite among the obvious candidates.
  • Josh Hader will begin the season on the injured list, though he emerged from his first spring bullpen feeling good.
    • On the whole, this is positive news as it looks like Hader will only miss a few weeks to start the year. In the meantime, Bryan Abreu will serve as a temporary top-tier closer.
  • Robert Stephenson experiences health setback, Kirby Yates viewed as top candidate to close to start the year.
    • With Stephenson out, Yates looks like a good bet to close for the Angels–at least until Ben Joyce proves he is fully recovered from shoulder surgery.
• 3/7/2026
  • Carlos Estévez’s velocity is down this spring.
    • It is common for closers to show diminished velocity early on in spring training, but Estévez’s average fastball is coming in six miles per hour slower than last year. He enters the season with great job security, but also arguably the worst rate stat projections of any closer, including Victor Vodnik.
  • Robert Stephenson reached 95 MPH in his first spring session against live hitters.
    • His average fastball velocity was 96 MPH in 2025, so he’s not far off where he was the last time we saw him healthy. He plans to be ready for opening day, further muddling an already cloudy Angels bullpen picture.
  • Josh Hader to throw bullpen next week.
    • Hader continues to progress in his recovery from biceps inflammation and the team has not yet ruled him out for opening day. He’s heavily discounted in drafts right now given his uncertain health. If the reports on next week’s bullpen session are positive, he could be well worth the gamble, though not for the faint of heart.
• 2/24/2026
  • Paul Sewald signs with Diamondbacks.
    • Sewald jumps to the top of the closing hierachy in Arizona given his experience and recent team comments. However, Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson are not far behind him if he stumbles.
  • Edwin Uceta shelved with shoulder impingement.
    • It doesn’t appear to be a long-term concern, but it could cause him to miss Opening Day, giving Griffin Jax and Garrett Cleavinger a leg up in the Rays closing competition.
  • Trevor Megill trade winds continue to swirl.
    • Megill continues to be discussed in trade talks. For now, the Brewers suggest Abner Uribe and Megill could share the closing job.
  • An update on Josh Hader’s health.
    • Hader is playing light catch as he recovers from biceps inflammation. It doesn’t appear to be a long-term concern, but he looks increasingly likely to miss Opening Day.
•  2/12/2026
  • Updated ADP data from NFBC Draft Champions to NFBC Online Championships.
  • Athletics sign Scott Barlow.
    • Barlow has the most closing experience on the team and his projections are passable. Mark Leiter Jr. has slightly better projections and signed for a slightly bigger contract ($3 million versus $2 million), so this one is close to a toss up–but right now I lean toward the guy with a lengthier track record of closing.
  • Josh Hader is behind schedule.
    • He was dealing with biceps tendinitis and returned to throwing yesterday. He believes it’s a minor concern that won’t impact his availability this year, but it’s enough to ding him a few spots in the rankings, and to bump Bryan Abreu up a few spots.
  • Kevin Ginkel is healthy, Andrew Saalfrank will miss the year after undergoing shoulder surgery, and A.J. Puk could return from elbow surgery before All-Star break.
    • Puk is not worth stashing for two months in standard FAAB leagues, but when he returns he is a good bet to reclaim closing duties from Kevin Ginkel, or whomever else has the job. With Saalfrank going down, Ginkel looks like a solid bet for saves to start the year.
  • Robert Stephenson dealt with multiple arm injuries this offseason, but is ostensibly healthy now.
    • With Ben Joyce uncertain for opening day, Kirby Yates looks like the clear front-runner for saves to start the year.
  • Robert Garcia and Chris Martin named as lead candidates for saves for the Rangers.
    • Texas did not give Martin many save opportunities last season even though he was as dominant as ever, so Garcia is still my preferred pick here–but Martin is also worth drafting later on.
  • Jordan Hicks traded to White Sox.
    •  Per general manager Chris Getz, “I think the White Sox are at the best if he’s at his best in the bullpen.” Hicks still projects well in a bullpen role and could eventually compete for saves if Seranthony Domínguez falters.
  • Liam Hendriks signs minor-league contract with Twins.
    • Hendriks is coming off a rough couple of seasons but has legendary closing pedigree, while the Twins lack a clear closer. Monitor his chances of making the team this spring and consider him as a late dart throw in your drafts.
•  2/2/2026
  • White Sox sign Seranthony Domínguez.
    • He joins tier three as he is expected to close. Jordan Leasure and Grant Taylor each take a hit in the ranks. Along with David Robertson, who has now announced his retirement, Domínguez was the last big domino to fall among free agent relievers. There are still a few interesting names left unsigned, like Michael Kopech, but none are a particularly good bet to usurp an incumbent closer regardless of where they end up. That means future movement in the ranks will be driven by trades, injuries, and commentary from the teams themselves.
•  1/23/2026
  • Twins sign Taylor Rogers.
    • Rogers immediately jumps to the top of the bullpen hierarchy in Minnesota given his past closing experience and the paucity of  strong alternatives in the Twins bullpen. His ERA projections are nothing special, sitting in the high-threes across across most projections, but he’s a solid bet to open the season as closer.
  • Diamondbacks sign Jonathan Loáisiga to a minor-league contract.
    • Per Steamer and OOPSY, Loáisiga has the best projections of any healthy D-backs reliever, but he will probably have to work his way up the closer hierarchy as his contract is of the minor league variety. If he looks like a good bet to make the MLB roster this spring, I may need to move him up.
  • Royals moving in the fences at Kauffman Stadium.
    • Moving in the fences will likely increase homers, decrease doubles and triples, and boost scoring overall. Carlos Estévez’s rank falls a few spots as his rate stat projections take a hit (note: the park changes are already reflected in OOPSY).
•  1/8/2026
  • Angels sign Kirby Yates.
    • Given his extensive closing experience and Robert Stephenson’s trouble staying healthy, Yates vaults to the top of the Angels hierarchy for me, joining the third tier, while Stephenson drops down to tier four.
  • Noteworthy OOPSY projections.
    • This year’s OOPSY projections should be published at some point in the next 24 hours, joining other published FanGraphs projections, Steamer, THE BAT, and (partially) ZiPS. Focusing on ERA projections, here are some relievers OOPSY is bullish on relative to the other systems: Andrés Muñoz (2.51), Griffin Jax (2.68), and Trevor Megill (2.93). OOPSY’s optimism on Muñoz is likely park-related, as it makes use of Statcast park factors that view T-Mobile as more pitcher-friendly relative to FanGraphs park factors. OOPSY’s Jax projection suggests he is one of baseball’s best relievers; he is no lock to lead the closing committee for Tampa, but he has huge upside if he is able to win a large share of the job. Megill’s projection would make him a worthy closer for many MLB teams, but OOPSY is even higher on Abner Uribe. In any case, the Brewers closer situation remains one of the most difficult to parse this offseason.
  • Closer Monkey and RosterResource – Closer Depth Charts disagreements.
    • Closer Monkey and RosterResource are two indispensable sources for understanding bullpen hierarchies and saves situations. They tend to agree more than they disagree, with the two sources currently listing the same name at the top of the hierarchy for 26 of 30 teams. There are four teams where they disagree: the Rays, the Brewers, the Diamondbacks, and the Athletics. I currently side with Closer Monkey on three of those four, also preferring Griffin Jax, Kevin Ginkel, and Mark Leiter Jr. to lead their respective hierarchies, while I am aligned with RosterResource on Abner Uribe over Trevor Megill for now–in large part because I think Megill will be traded to a situation where he may not close. Additionally, I deviate from both sources only on two teams: I have Kirby Yates leading the Angels hierarchy, while both still prefer Robert Stephenson; I also have Kody Funderbunk leading the Twins hierarchy, although that situation is so volatile that I’d guess that their 2026 saves leader is someone that’s entirely off the radar at this point. In any case, from a fantasy perspective, the teams with disagreement are the most interesting–and volatile.
•  12/28/2025
  • Marlins sign Pete Fairbanks.
    • It’s a great landing spot for Fairbanks as he should be the sole closing option in Miami. Accordingly, Calvin Faucher and Ronny Henriquez have been removed from the ranks. Henriquez would have been removed even if he were healthy as a result of the Fairbanks signing, but it was also announced that he is slated to miss the 2026 season after undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery.
  • Kenley Jansen is not guaranteed the closing job.
    • It is still difficult to imagine him not handling most save opportunities given his track record but at this point in his career his projections are less than stellar. I added Will Vest to the backend of the ranks as he has much better projections and was used ahead of Kyle Finnegan to close out games at the end of the 2025 season.
  • The White Sox sign Sean Newcomb.
    • Newcomb will be given the chance to start, but he is still a nice late sleeper option for saves as he is more experienced than Jordan Leasure or Grant Taylor, plus he is coming off a strong 2025 season out of the pen.
  • Diamondbacks are expected to sign a closing option to fill the role until Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk are ready to return in late 2026.
    • The only issue here is there aren’t a ton of great bullpen options left in free agency. Per RosterResource’s Free Agent Tracker, some remaining arms that might compete for closer are Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald, and Seranthony Dominguez.
• 12/18/2025 – First Release

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team saves league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Full Rankings Without Tiers

The Relief Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Greg Jewett

Strategy Section – Relief Pitchers / Closers

• General closer landscape for 2026
• Should you pay up for an elite closer in 2026?
  • Double tap elite closers?
• Who is worthwhile to draft in the 2nd / middle tier of closers this season?
• What to learn from spring training
• Potential breakouts from middle relievers / non-front line closers

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

All 30 MLB Bullpens & Closer situations

Injury Update

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

David Frerker-Imagn Images

In a recent article, I wanted to show the average fastball velocity increase from Spring Training to the regular season. I went to Mike Fast’s classic article, “Spinning Yarn: Do Spring Speeds Matter?” at Baseball Prospectus, and noticed it was 15 years old. In the article, he found a 0.6 mph increase from Spring Training to the regular season. As much as I trust Mike’s work, it’s time for an update. After looking at the numbers, the velocity difference has shrunk to almost zero.

To find the change, I took the available Spring Training fastball velocities from the past three seasons for both sinkers and four-seamers. Then I calculated the average and median differences, along with the standard deviation. Additionally, it seems like relievers are down more than starters (>=50% GS/G in regular season) in Spring Training, so I split them up.

That’s pretty much it, so here are the results.

The overall increase is cut in half from the original study, with starters seeing almost no increase … on average. All the standard deviations approach 1 mph, so there can be some major differences from one pitcher to the next. I included the velocity ranges for different standard deviations. In the best-case scenarios (3 SD), starters gain about 2.5 mph while relievers are adding 4 mph.

With that knowledge, feel free to navigate our player pages to see who is up and who is down. And for me, it’s back to Mining the News.

The Ottoneu rankings push finally wraps up with a look at relief pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

• 2/16/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Updated tier placement for one player (green = moved up, red = moved down).
• 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 19 players based on 2026 draft results. Added Paul Sewald, Brooks Raley, Drew Pomeranz, Mason Montgomery, and Cole Henry.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
• P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Here are my general thoughts about relief pitchers in Ottoneu points and 4×4 leagues: underlying skills matter a lot more than a pitcher’s place in the bullpen pecking order. Chasing saves isn’t as important as it might be in 5×5 leagues where saves make up 20% of the pitching categories. Teams will generally use their most skilled relievers in the highest leverage situations which means if you target relievers with strong skills, saves and holds (and the bonus points associated with them in Ottoneu points leagues) will follow.

Relievers are also the most volatile part of your roster and they’re the most fungible players in the format. That means even if you invest heavily to build an elite bullpen, a team who spends $10 total on 5 or 6 relievers could outperform your team if they find the right mix of breakouts and sleepers. Be ready to churn through a bunch of relievers throughout the season as pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness. That process is so much easier if you’re not invested into a bunch of high priced closers.

We flipped the script this week, with Jake Mailhot posting his FanGraphs Points reliever ranks before I posted my 4×4 ranks, but I still wanted to provide my ranks. I am also going to make this article – the last of the ranks before the keeper deadline this weekend! – pull double duty. In addition to my 4×4 tiers, I am going to share my thoughts on Points and 5×5 leagues, as well as head-to-head, rather than doing a full follow-up article. All the same great taste now packed into a single bite.

Read the rest of this entry »

Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

A few days ago, I asked for help to double-check this season’s initial closers (full 2024 edition).

Here are the results, starting with the initial closers and their performance.

Read the rest of this entry »

In early June, Alex Chamberlain graced us with a FanGraphs article about Brendon Little and a new concept called, “Implied Miss Distance”. Chamberlain, along with Baseball Prospectus writer/researcher Stephen Sutton-Brown, have done some great work utilizing Statcast bat tracking data, giving readers a new perspective on something like a swing and miss. But, back in early July, nearly a month after Chamberlain wrote about Little’s amazing knuckle-curve and it’s ability to make hitters whiff so hard that the outfield flag flutters, hitters stopped chasing the pitch. They were tired of looking silly and would no longer budge, allowing us to imply nothing:

If it wasn’t for Chamberlain’s article, I wouldn’t have known about Little or his knuckle-curve. But that’s why FanGraphs is the best, and when I recently watched the Blue Jays and their relievers’ deteriorating August WHIP, I heard the broadcasters mention Little’s falling O-Swing, or chase, rate.

If you only focused on Little’s knuckle-curve and the damage hitters have done to it in each month of the season, as you see in the table below, you wouldn’t think twice about the pitch’s performance:

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 knuckle curves in any of the last five seasons, Little’s 2025 wOBA of .188 is a fringe top 20 (25th) out of nearly 200 pitchers. Last season, Little got even closer to the top 20 mark (23rd) with a .186 wOBA on the pitch. But the broadcast never said anything about Little getting hit; they were focused on the lack of chase and, therefore, an increased BB%:

The chart above includes all of Little’s pitches. By isolating the O-Swing% to only his knuckle-curve, we can see that this overall drop in hitters’ chasing after Little’s offerings wasn’t solely because of them spitting at that specific pitch:

Thanks to the incredible addition of the Pitch-Type Split Leaderboard by the FanGraphs web team, we can now view the averages of individual pitches with ease. In 2025, among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 knuckle curves, the league average O-Swing% currently sits at 35.5%. Little’s mark on the season is 36.5%. Rolling averages are different from season averages, and when Little’s chase rate rolling average dipped, so did the chase rolling average of his two other pitches:

Chart 4 – Rolling KC, FC, SI Chase% Comps

The straight red line indicates times when Little stopped throwing his cutter. It’s interesting to see how the line stopped running horizontally around the same time his knuckle-curve was at its worst. Unfortunately, it didn’t fill the chased pitch gap, and that 40-50 game mark fell around early to mid-July when Little’s WHIP went upwards:

Hitters weren’t getting boosted wOBA’s from Little’s lack of chase, but the 1.65 WHIP  (5.97 eqiuv. ERA) meant they were hitting his other pitches and walking more. I’ve been rambling on about Little for more than a few paragraphs now, and you’re probably waiting for the point. The point? The point is, pitchers need to adjust when a pitch that used to be chased no longer gets chased. They know that. We know that. Yet, it’s difficult to keep track of on the fan side of things. Pitchers will go about adjusting in all sorts of ways.

In Little’s case, it was really just a blip. If you go back up to the graph showing individual pitch chase rates, you may notice that Little’s usage of the cutter, even if it wasn’t chased, allowed the chase rate on his knuckle-curve to jump back up. Hitters did a great job of laying off Little’s knuckle-curve from around games 30 to 70, but excellence is when a pitcher can adjust in the moment to hitters. That’s robotic. So, let’s!…get!…robotic! For the remainder of this article, I’ll present a detection system that can run daily to capture when a pitcher’s most used fastball and most used secondary are in good or bad rhythm using individual pitch plate discipline metrics. Here’s an example from Little’s 40 to 80 game span:

The table is just a summary of what you see in Chart 4 above, but it’s designed to be placed in an automated system. If chase is up on one pitch and called strike is up on another, that’s good. If both pitches are falling to generate either chase or called strikes, well, that’s bad. Categorizing the balance between his sinker’s called strike rate and his knuckle-curve’s chase rate is as simple as creating rule-based logic:

conditions = [
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%']-3 > final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%']-3 > final_df['smart_median_cstr']),
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%'] <= final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%'] >= final_df['smart_median_cstr']),
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%']+3 < final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%']+3 < final_df['smart_median_cstr']), (final_df['Rolling_Chase%'] >= final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%'] <= final_df['smart_median_cstr'])
]
# Define the corresponding categories
categories = [
'Excellent',
'Ok (Adjusting)',
'Bad',
'Ok (Adjusting)'
]


Using the pitcher’s median values allows the categorization to detect improvements by each individual. I’m using “smart” medians to call the league median if a player has a zero value. That happens when they haven’t generated any chase or called strikes. If we use Brendon Little’s game logs to isolate his performance during those game periods from the table above, we see some pattern in a very small sample:

Little was at his best when he was in decent balance. This is the type of tracking that could be useful when streaming pitchers or looking for hot relievers. To test this out on a grander scale, I built a dataset that includes data from the last two months. This keeps the sample limited to more recent performance. Furthermore, I limited the data to only pitchers with more than 60 total pitches thrown in that time. Then, I took each pitcher’s most utilized fastball by pitch percentage and used it to calculate their called strike rate. I did the same with each pitcher’s most utilized offspeed, or non-fastball, pitch and used it to calculate their chase rate. I then calculated each pitch’s 15-game rolling rate, called strike for fastballs and chase for non-fastballs, and labelled their performance balance. Finally, I counted the number of days in which a player has been either good (balanced) or bad (unbalanced) and found the current status of players in both groups:

–

The results focus on a pitcher’s most recent stretch. For example, Emilio Pagán has had one of his best K-BB% (22.4%) marks of his career this season, and in his last five games, it’s been even better (26.3%). He’s had recent success thanks to his four-seam and splitter working in unison.

Is there more to do? Always. I’ve only compared fastball called strike rates with offspeed chase rates, but all of these plate discipline metrics could be compared for balance. For example, it may be better to have a balanced swinging strike rate and chase rate. But, fundamental to this analysis is the assumption that it’s hard to get anywhere without a fastball and offspeed pitch that work well together. Does it mean anything? Is the balance even predictive of future success? Maybe, maybe not. What it certainly can do, as I believe I’ve exemplified here, is explain a pitcher’s success or lack thereof. If you are interested in doing this analysis on your own without spending hours calling and pinging pybaseball’s API, you can view pitch-specific plate discipline metrics on our new and totally awesome Pitch-Type Splits Leaderboards. Stay balanced, stay cool.

Happy Friday, and welcome to the first Pitcher Playing Time Changes rundown of September! As always, there’s a lot to go over, with the injury hits continuing to come and teams like the Mets making significant rotation changes.

Happy Friday, and welcome to the last Pitcher Playing Time Changes of August! We’re running out of time on the regular season, which means a lot of pitchers are running out of time to return from injuries. Others, however, like Chris Sale, will come back and at least get the consolation prize of ending the year healthy and having pitched in MLB games.

Welcome to the latest Pitcher Playing Time Changes, headlined by a significant shakeup in the Phillies rotation due to Zack Wheeler’s potentially-season-ending injury. Below are the latest changes.