Actually Read This Intro

Today I have a weird thought experiment. You’ll need to pay attention for a moment. Back at the start of November, I secretly began my Way Too Early Rankings with a post about relievers. This article. As I was about to schedule it, friend Eno requested me to post my rankings in order (i.e. C, 1B, etc.), and kindly furnish End of Season rankings first. So this article was mothballed for two months.

What follows is that same article, unedited. I have provided commentary to my commentary in italics. The lesson is pretty simple – relief pitchers can experience rapid shifts in value. Now, let’s return to two months ago…

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Thus the series is concluded. Setting the reliever replacement level in the FanGraphs auction calculator is tricky. I did my best. You may think the values smell fishy, in which case you’re free to tinker with them. The top names certainly look correct, but it’s a bit jarring to see players like Kelvin Herrera and Dellin Betances score so poorly. Maybe that’s just a reflection of me and my biases. I expect Herrera and Betances to tally $8 even without earning saves.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

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Jon Gray.  Alex Bregman.  Michael Fulmer.  Edwin Diaz.  Yoan Moncada.  Willson Contreras.  Josh Bell.  Blake Snell.

The young players listed above are hot commodities right now in keeper leagues like Ottoneu. These players are the building blocks of hope for many eager fantasy owners looking to turn the corner from rebuilding to contention over the next season or two.  Each of these players were also well outside the top 50 prospects listed in Chris Mitchell’s KATOH Top 100 prospect ranking posted almost oneyear ago.

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With the calendar turned to December, the “Way Too” portion of the title feels  incorrect. Still, we have a series to finish so let’s get down to business. This is the seventh of eight volumes in the Way Too Early Rankings collection. Pre-Order the complete edition now – it makes a great stocking stuffer! You can find outfielders and links to the rest by following a link.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

Starting pitcher is the deepest and most difficult position to rank. I’ll be focusing written analysis on the players who most interest me. There’s a very high likelihood some players have slipped through the cracks. I think we’ll have a lot to talk about in the comments.

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Clayton Kershaw missed a big chunk of the season yet he was still a fantasy MVP. The real world NL Cy Young award debate was duplicated in fantasy land with Max Scherzer and Kershaw comfortably leading Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and Madison Bumgarner. What’s more valuable, Scherzer’s quantity or Kershaw’s quality? Our auction calculator says quantity by $1.50.

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OK, don’t get me wrong, I enjoyed writing about second basemen, but that sucker ran 2500 words. That’s kinda nuts, especially for a November first run that only covered 15 players. Anyway, I’m back and this time with third base, but we’re going to change up the format a bit. Instead of diving in on all 15, we’ll look at the top 10 and then group a bunch more. You’ll see, it’s going to be awesome, don’t worry.

• Starting Pitchers Part 1, Part 2
• First Base
• Second Base

Third base is interesting. It’s really stacked up top with as many as four first rounders and then another handful sure to go within the first 5-6 rounds.

Nolan Arenado | Rockies – I’m not sure you can go wrong between Arenado and Bryant, but I lean Arenado. He has back-to-back 40+ HR-130+ RBI seasons while also doubling his walk rate and shaving a bit off of his strikeout rate this past season. His road OPS the last two seasons is .834, easily the team’s best and well above the .676 mark that the Rockies have posted as a team on the road. There’s no denying he benefits heavily from Coors, but he doesn’t lose all of it on the road which is what takes him from very good player to top-of-the-heap superstar.

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This is the sixth edition of a continuing series. If you missed the previous rounds, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops can be found via the links. Yesterday, we evaluated what outfielders did in 2016. Today, we’ll take a first stab at ranking them for 2017.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

Outfield is a very large position. I’ll be focusing written analysis on the players who most interest me. There’s a very high likelihood some players have slipped through the cracks – either because I only ranked them at another position or missed them entirely.

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Mike Trout was the MVP of baseball this year. He had to fend off a good season from Mookie Betts, but there was no questioning that Trout was amazing. Flip to the fantasy world and it was Betts who triumphed over Trout. With an extra 49 plate appearances and slightly better 5×5 numbers, Betts did just enough to score $3 higher than our favorite fish. Of course, if you happen to play in an OBP league, Trout’s .441 OBP destroyed Betts’ .363 OBP. Real baseball is an OBP league.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

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I’m running a little behind on my top 15s to keep up with Brad’s “Way Too Early” rankings, so I’ll be looking to get 2B and 3B out this week, and maybe even SS.

• Starting Pitchers Part 1, Part 2
• First Base

The middle infield positions really saw some of the biggest gains in 2016 thanks to the leaguewide power surge. I thought the position ran pretty deep in last year’s drafts, but I think it’s even deeper now. I’m only rolling out 15 here and there are another 10 I’d be OK slotting in as my starting 2B, let alone putting them at the MI slot. Yes, the upper tier is obviously better, but after that it really starts to cluster.

Let’s just get into it!

Jose Altuve | Astros – I’m coming out firing with big surprises at the top, eh? Altuve showed that the 2015 power jump wasn’t a fluke by adding to it. He nearly doubled his HR/FB rate and popped 24 homers, more than he had the past two seasons combined (22). There was a cost, though. His stolen bases dropped for the second straight season, including a major falloff in the second half which seemed to be tied to his move into the third spot of the lineup.

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This is the fifth edition of a continuing series. If you missed the previous rounds, last week’s post on third basemen also has links to the other positions. Yesterday, we reviewed what happened in 2016 including the surprising discovery that Corey Seager’s lack of stolen bases put him a full tier behind the top of the class.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

Read the rest of this entry »