2016 End of Season Rankings: Outfield

Mike Trout was the MVP of baseball this year. He had to fend off a good season from Mookie Betts, but there was no questioning that Trout was amazing. Flip to the fantasy world and it was Betts who triumphed over Trout. With an extra 49 plate appearances and slightly better 5×5 numbers, Betts did just enough to score $3 higher than our favorite fish. Of course, if you happen to play in an OBP league, Trout’s .441 OBP destroyed Betts’ .363 OBP. Real baseball is an OBP league.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

2016 End of Season Rankings: Outfield
Rank Name G PA HR R RBI SB AVG $$
1 Mookie Betts 158 730 31 122 113 26 0.318 38.1
2 Mike Trout 159 681 29 123 100 30 0.315 35.2
3 Kris Bryant 155 699 39 121 102 8 0.292 28.9
4 Charlie Blackmon 143 641 29 111 82 17 0.324 28.2
5 Nelson Cruz 155 667 43 96 105 2 0.287 24.8
6 Ian Desmond 156 677 22 107 86 21 0.285 22.1
7 Mark Trumbo 159 667 47 94 108 2 0.256 22.1
8 Ryan Braun 135 564 30 80 91 16 0.305 21.9
9 Matt Kemp 156 672 35 89 108 1 0.268 18.7
10 George Springer 162 744 29 116 82 9 0.261 18.3
11 Carlos Gonzalez 150 632 25 87 100 2 0.298 18.2
12 Christian Yelich 155 659 21 78 98 9 0.298 17.2
13 Khris Davis 150 610 42 85 102 1 0.247 17
14 Starling Marte 129 529 9 71 46 47 0.311 16.4
15 Jose Ramirez 152 618 11 84 76 22 0.312 16.2
16 Jackie Bradley Jr. 156 636 26 94 87 9 0.267 15.7
17 Carlos Beltran 151 593 29 73 93 1 0.295 15.5
18 Adam Duvall 150 608 33 85 103 6 0.241 14.9
19 Bryce Harper 147 627 24 84 86 21 0.243 14.2
20 Yoenis Cespedes 132 543 31 72 86 3 0.28 13.6
21 Jay Bruce 147 589 33 74 99 4 0.25 13.3
22 Gregory Polanco 144 587 22 79 86 17 0.258 13.2
23 Stephen Piscotty 153 649 22 86 85 7 0.273 13.1
24 Justin Upton 153 626 31 81 87 9 0.246 12.6
25 Odubel Herrera 159 656 15 87 49 25 0.286 12.5
26 Adam Jones 152 672 29 86 83 2 0.265 12.4
27 Yasmany Tomas 140 563 31 72 83 2 0.272 11.9
28 Ben Zobrist 147 631 18 94 76 6 0.272 11.2
29 Adam Eaton 157 706 14 91 59 14 0.284 10.9
30 Trea Turner 73 324 13 53 40 33 0.342 10.7
31 Rajai Davis 134 495 12 74 48 43 0.249 10.4
32 Melky Cabrera 151 646 14 70 86 2 0.296 9.7
33 J.D. Martinez 120 517 22 69 68 1 0.307 9.6
34 Andrew McCutchen 153 675 24 81 79 6 0.256 9.4
35 Kole Calhoun 157 672 18 91 75 2 0.271 9.3
36 Billy Hamilton 119 460 3 69 17 58 0.26 7.7
37 Hernan Perez 123 430 13 50 56 34 0.272 7.5
38 Marcell Ozuna 148 608 23 75 76 0 0.266 7.4
39 Melvin Upton Jr. 149 539 20 64 61 27 0.238 7.3
40 Curtis Granderson 150 633 30 88 59 4 0.237 6.8
41 Dexter Fowler 125 551 13 84 48 13 0.276 6.4
42 Jayson Werth 143 606 21 84 69 5 0.244 6
43 Angel Pagan 129 543 12 71 55 15 0.277 5.7
44 Joc Pederson 137 476 25 64 68 6 0.246 5.4
45 Nick Markakis 158 684 13 67 89 0 0.269 5.1
46 Leonys Martin 143 576 15 72 47 24 0.247 4.8
47 Jacoby Ellsbury 148 626 9 71 56 20 0.263 4.7
48 Willson Contreras 76 283 12 33 35 2 0.282 4.5
49 Randal Grichuk 132 478 24 66 68 5 0.24 4.2
50 Danny Valencia 130 517 17 72 51 1 0.287 3.9
51 Cameron Maybin 94 391 4 65 43 15 0.315 3.4
52 Giancarlo Stanton 119 470 27 56 74 0 0.24 3.3
53 Lorenzo Cain 103 434 9 56 56 14 0.287 3.2
54 Ender Inciarte 131 578 3 85 29 16 0.291 3.1
55 Michael Saunders 140 558 24 70 57 1 0.253 3.1
56 Brandon Moss 128 464 28 66 67 1 0.225 3.1
57 Jose Bautista 116 517 22 68 69 2 0.234 2.8
58 Denard Span 143 637 11 70 53 12 0.266 2.7
59 Nomar Mazara 145 568 20 59 64 0 0.266 2.2
60 Brett Gardner 148 634 7 80 41 16 0.261 1.9
61 Corey Dickerson 148 548 24 57 70 0 0.245 1.8
62 Brandon Drury 134 499 16 59 53 1 0.282 1.4
63 Hunter Pence 106 442 13 58 57 1 0.289 1.3
64 Miguel Sano 116 495 25 57 66 1 0.236 1.3
65 Chris Owings 119 466 5 52 49 21 0.277 1.3
66 Paulo Orlando 128 484 5 52 43 14 0.302 1
67 Kevin Pillar 146 584 7 59 53 14 0.266 0.4
68 Tyler Naquin 116 365 14 52 43 6 0.296 0.4
69 Seth Smith 137 438 16 62 63 0 0.249 0.1
70 Kevin Kiermaier 105 414 12 55 37 21 0.246 -0.3
71 Steven Souza Jr. 120 468 17 58 49 7 0.247 -0.8
72 Max Kepler 113 447 17 52 63 6 0.235 -0.8
73 Matt Holliday 110 426 20 48 62 0 0.246 -1.2
74 Lonnie Chisenhall 126 418 8 43 57 6 0.286 -1.5
75 Carlos Gomez 118 453 13 45 53 18 0.231 -1.7
76 Jarrod Dyson 107 337 1 46 25 30 0.278 -1.9
77 Josh Reddick 115 439 10 53 37 8 0.281 -2
78 Howie Kendrick 146 543 8 65 40 10 0.255 -2.6
79 Coco Crisp 122 498 13 54 55 10 0.231 -2.6
80 Avisail Garcia 120 453 12 59 51 4 0.245 -2.9
81 Michael Bourn 113 413 5 48 38 15 0.264 -3.8
82 Nori Aoki 118 467 4 63 28 7 0.283 -3.9
83 Alex Gordon 128 506 17 62 40 8 0.22 -4
84 Yasiel Puig 104 368 11 45 45 5 0.263 -4.1
85 Robbie Grossman 99 389 11 49 37 2 0.28 -4.3
86 Travis Jankowski 131 383 2 53 12 30 0.245 -4.9
87 Eddie Rosario 92 354 10 52 32 5 0.269 -4.9
88 Jason Heyward 142 592 7 61 49 11 0.23 -5
89 Jose Peraza 72 256 3 25 25 21 0.324 -5.5
90 Jefry Marte 88 284 15 38 44 2 0.252 -5.9
91 Matt Joyce 140 293 13 45 42 1 0.242 -5.9
92 David Dahl 63 237 7 42 24 5 0.315 -6.1
93 Keon Broxton 75 244 9 28 19 23 0.242 -6.7
94 Byron Buxton 92 331 10 44 38 10 0.225 -6.7
95 Alex Dickerson 84 285 10 39 37 5 0.257 -6.7
96 Ichiro Suzuki 143 365 1 48 22 10 0.291 -6.8
97 Gerardo Parra 102 381 7 45 39 6 0.253 -7
98 Scott Schebler 82 282 9 36 40 2 0.265 -7.5
99 Colby Rasmus 107 417 15 38 54 4 0.206 -7.7
100 Franklin Gutierrez 98 283 14 33 39 1 0.246 -7.8
101 Brandon Guyer 101 345 9 39 32 3 0.266 -7.9
102 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 125 392 13 38 44 8 0.209 -7.9
103 Jon Jay 90 373 2 49 26 2 0.291 -8
104 Ryan Rua 99 269 8 40 22 9 0.258 -8.1
105 Brock Holt 94 324 7 45 34 4 0.255 -8.6
106 Blake Swihart 19 74 0 9 5 0 0.258 -8.8
107 Jeremy Hazelbaker 114 224 12 35 28 5 0.235 -8.8
108 Domingo Santana 77 281 11 34 32 2 0.256 -8.8
109 Ezequiel Carrera 110 310 6 47 23 7 0.248 -8.9
110 Michael Conforto 109 348 12 38 42 2 0.22 -9
111 Hyun Soo Kim 95 346 6 36 22 1 0.302 -9
112 Trayce Thompson 80 262 13 31 32 5 0.225 -9.4
113 Jorge Soler 86 264 12 37 31 0 0.238 -9.6
114 Chris Young 76 227 9 29 24 4 0.276 -9.7
115 Mallex Smith 72 215 3 28 22 16 0.238 -10.3
116 Jeff Francoeur 125 331 7 33 34 2 0.254 -10.3
117 Rickie Weeks Jr. 108 205 9 29 27 5 0.239 -10.5
118 Peter Bourjos 123 383 5 40 23 6 0.251 -10.9
119 Michael Taylor 76 237 7 28 16 14 0.231 -11.1
120 Ben Revere 103 375 2 44 24 14 0.217 -11.4
121 Joey Rickard 85 282 5 32 19 4 0.268 -11.7
122 Billy Burns 97 332 0 39 13 17 0.235 -11.8
123 Matt Szczur 107 200 5 30 24 2 0.259 -12.2
124 Jake Marisnick 118 311 5 40 21 10 0.209 -12.3
125 Shin-Soo Choo 48 210 7 27 17 6 0.242 -12.5
126 Nick Franklin 60 191 6 18 26 6 0.27 -12.6
127 Ryan Raburn 113 256 9 30 30 0 0.22 -12.7
128 Abraham Almonte 67 194 1 24 22 8 0.264 -12.8
129 Aaron Hicks 123 361 8 32 31 3 0.217 -13.1
130 Danny Santana 75 248 2 29 14 12 0.24 -13.1
131 Jake Smolinski 99 319 7 28 27 1 0.238 -13.4
132 Delino DeShields 74 203 4 36 13 8 0.209 -13.5
133 Tommy Pham 78 183 9 26 17 2 0.226 -13.6
134 Alejandro De Aza 130 267 6 31 25 4 0.205 -14
135 Adam Frazier 66 160 2 21 11 4 0.301 -14.3
136 Andrew Toles 48 115 3 19 16 1 0.314 -14.4
137 Chris Coghlan 99 300 6 35 30 2 0.188 -14.6
138 Aaron Altherr 57 227 4 23 23 7 0.202 -14.9
139 Rafael Ortega 66 202 1 24 16 8 0.232 -15
140 David Peralta 48 183 4 23 15 2 0.251 -15.2
141 Josh Bell 45 152 3 18 19 0 0.273 -15.4
142 Chris Heisey 83 155 9 18 17 0 0.216 -15.5
143 Gregor Blanco 106 274 1 28 18 6 0.224 -15.6
144 Austin Jackson 54 203 0 24 18 2 0.254 -15.8
145 Marlon Byrd 34 129 5 11 19 0 0.27 -15.9
146 Jarrett Parker 63 151 5 22 14 0 0.236 -15.9
147 Andrew Benintendi 34 118 2 16 14 1 0.295 -16
148 Nolan Reimold 104 227 6 25 15 1 0.222 -16
149 Desmond Jennings 65 225 7 22 20 2 0.2 -16.1
150 Drew Stubbs 59 94 3 13 7 9 0.225 -16.2
151 Oswaldo Arcia 69 222 8 17 23 1 0.203 -16.3
152 Shawn O’Malley 89 232 2 24 17 6 0.229 -16.4
153 Cody Asche 71 218 4 22 18 3 0.213 -16.4
154 Rob Refsnyder 58 175 0 25 12 2 0.25 -16.5
155 Hunter Renfroe 11 36 4 8 14 0 0.371 -16.6
156 Kiké Hernandez 109 244 7 25 18 2 0.19 -16.6
157 Albert Almora 47 117 3 14 14 0 0.277 -16.7
158 Mac Williamson 54 127 6 14 15 0 0.223 -16.9
159 Brett Eibner 70 208 6 21 22 0 0.193 -16.9
160 J.B. Shuck 81 241 4 27 14 3 0.205 -17
161 Jimmy Paredes 83 167 5 15 19 0 0.222 -17.1
162 Tyler Collins 56 151 4 14 15 1 0.235 -17.2
163 Tyler Holt 106 208 0 21 13 4 0.235 -17.2
164 Juan Lagares 79 160 3 15 9 4 0.239 -17.3
165 Mitch Haniger 34 123 5 9 17 0 0.229 -17.5
166 Teoscar Hernandez 41 112 4 15 11 0 0.23 -17.7
167 Steven Moya 31 100 5 9 11 0 0.255 -17.7
168 Steve Selsky 24 54 2 9 7 1 0.314 -18.1
169 Guillermo Heredia 45 107 1 12 12 1 0.25 -18.2
170 Roman Quinn 15 69 0 10 6 5 0.263 -18.2
171 A.J. Pollock 12 46 2 9 4 4 0.244 -18.5
172 Ramon Flores 104 289 2 18 19 3 0.205 -18.7
173 Tyler Goeddel 92 234 4 17 16 3 0.192 -18.7
174 Socrates Brito 40 97 4 10 12 2 0.179 -18.8
175 Brandon Nimmo 32 80 1 12 6 0 0.274 -18.9
176 Shane Robinson 65 111 1 16 10 3 0.173 -19
177 Ji-Man Choi 54 129 5 9 12 2 0.17 -19.2
178 Tony Kemp 59 136 1 15 7 2 0.217 -19.2
179 Justin Ruggiano 9 26 2 4 7 0 0.333 -19.3
180 Rob Segedin 40 83 2 9 12 0 0.233 -19.3
181 Bryce Brentz 25 64 1 8 7 0 0.279 -19.3
182 Aaron Judge 27 95 4 10 10 0 0.179 -19.4
183 Daniel Nava 54 148 1 11 13 0 0.223 -19.5
184 Alex Presley 50 134 3 12 11 0 0.198 -19.6
185 Darin Ruf 43 89 3 8 9 0 0.205 -19.7
186 Gorkys Hernandez 26 57 2 7 4 0 0.259 -19.8
187 Anthony Gose 30 101 2 11 7 0 0.209 -19.9
188 Leury Garcia 18 50 1 6 5 2 0.229 -19.9
189 Scott Van Slyke 52 113 1 10 7 1 0.225 -19.9
190 Hernan Iribarren 24 45 0 6 2 1 0.311 -20
191 Peter O’Brien 28 67 5 6 9 0 0.141 -20
192 Ty Kelly 39 71 1 9 7 0 0.241 -20.1
193 Kyle Jensen 17 34 2 5 7 0 0.194 -20.1
194 Raimel Tapia 22 41 0 4 3 3 0.263 -20.1
195 Nick Buss 36 90 1 7 8 2 0.198 -20.2
196 Michael Brantley 11 43 0 5 7 1 0.231 -20.2
197 Brandon Barnes 48 109 0 10 8 1 0.22 -20.2
198 Mikie Mahtook 65 196 3 16 11 0 0.195 -20.2
199 Max Muncy 51 133 2 13 8 0 0.186 -20.3
200 Michael Martinez 63 106 1 16 4 0 0.238 -20.3
201 Jared Hoying 39 49 0 8 5 1 0.217 -20.3
202 Jason Coats 28 58 1 8 4 1 0.2 -20.4
203 Stephen Cardullo 27 59 2 5 6 0 0.214 -20.4
204 Ben Gamel 33 57 1 9 5 0 0.188 -20.4
205 Reymond Fuentes 13 44 0 2 5 0 0.317 -20.5
206 Manuel Margot 10 37 0 4 3 2 0.243 -20.6
207 Jabari Blash 38 84 3 7 5 1 0.169 -20.6
208 Cole Gillespie 41 55 0 7 5 0 0.235 -20.6
209 Taylor Motter 34 93 2 11 9 0 0.188 -20.7
210 Mike Aviles 68 181 1 17 6 2 0.21 -20.8

Remember how we spent the preseason discussing Trout or Harper? Well, Harper barely matched a third of Trout’s value. I have a feeling we’ll be repeating the conversation with Betts. Unlike Harper, I do think there’s a better chance for Betts to outperform Trout a second season, especially (only?) in batting average leagues. Trout reached the 30 steal plateau this year, but I’m expecting a sharp decline in attempts. He’ll have to make up the difference with more home runs.

Replacement level was Kevin Pillar, Tyler Naquin, and Seth Smith. Naquin and Smith were much better on a rate basis, but Pillar produced more volume. In most formats, you want Smiths over Pillars.

The breakouts were mostly of the power variety with Trumbo, Davis, and Duvall leading the charge. To me, Davis feels like the most repeatable of this trio, possibly because I’ve been saying he could do this for years. With Trumbo, we’ll have to see where he signs. Duvall has a lower bar to clear since he “only” hit 33 home runs with Great American Ballpark as his home.

Other surprise performances include Blackmon, Desmond, Kemp, and Tomas. Blackmon was supposed to be good, but he nearly matched Bryant’s season despite missing most of April. His speed is declining such that I’d only count on 15 swipes next year. The rest of the batting line should be superb. If you bought late and sold early on Desmond, you made out like a bandit. This proves it’s possible to be valuable by merely existing for two-thirds of a season. You just need otherworldly performance over the other third.

Kemp looked lost/terrible every time I saw him play. I don’t know when he did the damage necessary to rank so highly. As soon as the power starts to go, he’ll fall of a cliff. Similarly, Tomas had the best negative WAR season among fantasy players. How confident are we that the new Diamondbacks administration will play him? Personally, were I them, I’d be on the phone with Boston right now. “Hey, want to save some cash?”

At a position this large, there’s room for a lot of disappointment. Here’s a scattershot of names we expected to do so much more. First, let’s put Pollock and Brantley aside. Season-long injuries are the worst. Harper, McCutchen, Upton, Bautista, Martinez, Puig, and Heyward went early and returned very little value. Upton had the best bang for his buck of that group, but you had to hold on until September to get it. That’s just the tip of the iceberg though. Everybody over-hyped Grichuk. In my leagues, he averaged $17 to draft. Santana followed the exact same plot. Several good veterans like Gordon, Holliday, and Pence also disappeared.

 

We hoped you liked reading 2016 End of Season Rankings: Outfield by Brad Johnson!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

newest oldest most voted
Anon
Member
Anon

Kemp had an incredibly bad May (561 OPS) and even more than that, a spectacularly bad 18 games from May 5-23 (322 OPS). He also had a mediocre August (705 OPS) but really was pretty good the other months with OPS from 817 to 1005.