10/13/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @PitcherList – Nick Pollack (producer)

2021 SP DISCUSSION

• Luis Castillo – 2:00
• Zac Gallen – 8:30
• Blake Snell – 14:30
• Tyler Glasnow – 22:00
• Aaron Nola – 23:20
• Lucas Giolito – 27:29
• Dinelson Lamet – 32:00
• Walker Buehler/Clayton Kershaw – 34:34
• Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 – 38:35
• Dylan Bundy – 45:17
• José Berríos – 52:00

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The 2021 draft season may be the most unpredictable one … ever. While several rule changes (e.g. NL DH) can cause some evaluation inconsistencies, the biggest monkey wrench to deal with will be the lack of previous season stats. Projection systems will weight the 60-game 2020 season (37% of a normal season) to historical averages but what are those who don’t use traditional projections systems? Or read or listen to people who don’t care for them in order to create a compelling narrative? It’s time to anchor some historical context around those narratives.

All analyses “should” start with at least some set of weights. For those who start with one, they’ll have an advantage. For those who guess the correct one, they’ll have a huge edge. The issue with setting weights is how to create a short season one that fills all the narratives.

First, most of the players were rushed to get game-ready and were not 100% ready when the season started. So the beginning of the season stats could be used to replicate this ramping up period, but the weather was still warm at the season’s end increasing offensive output. Maybe the entire first month should be ignored with everything in flux. Possibly the last two because that were the 2020 regular season months. played. So, I decided to look into all the possible options including a horrible first attempt.
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10/02/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• AL Playoffs
• Clayton Kershaw dominates

MY SP RANKS

Too high

• Mike Clevinger 25
• Mike Soroka 40
• Cal Quantrill 120

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Well, we got a season! It was only two months so it’s really hard to know exactly how much stock to put it into any of it, but here’s my first look. Obviously this is subject to change and will do so quite a bit as the offseason moves forward, but I feel pretty good about this initial look. I decided not to tier it yet as I’m just not feeling confident in the cutoffs, but rest assured that there are several globs once we get past the first 25 or so. I also just labeled pitchers with their current team, we’ll get into free agent stuff later in the offseason.

Let me know what you think in the comments! I’ll have more detailed ranks out shortly after the playoffs.

Note: Pearson, Richards, and Fiers added after initial post. Meanwhile, I had missed Hudson’s TJ. 

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Opening day is finally here!

In 2020, we had two distinct draft seasons – both in February/March as well as in June/July. Some fantasy teams of mine were drafted four or five months ago, while others were assembled just this past weekend. We typically spend all winter longing for the time when our fantasy teams finally start accumulating statistics. This year, due to the tragic global pandemic of COVID-19, we had to wait even longer. We are now finally here. Tonight the standings go live!

I am well aware that there is still much suffering in the U.S. and in the rest of the world from the disease. I do not mean to make light of the world’s situation by any means in my enthusiasm for baseball’s return. At the same time, watching our nation’s pastime played day in and day out, may aid the morale of the country. Although there will be many challenges, I am hopeful that the MLB will be able to start and finish the abbreviated 2020 season without major hiccups.

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For the 60-game season, I’m going to rank the starters each week by their probable matchup(s). This will be different than my standard longer-term rankings as it will be hyper-focused on the week ahead. As such a solid two-start arm (of which there are none this time around since I’m focusing solely on the upcoming Thursday-Sunday run) with good matchups will slot above a superstar ace in a one-start week, though you’ll likely not be pressed to choose between the two. The decisions will likely wind up on the fringes when you’re deciding between your last starter and another reliever. Talent will still matter, but matchups can create some separation in the short term.

Here’s what I’ve got based on the probable SP lists and notes I’ve gone over thus far. Let me know if someone I have listed is for sure not starting this weekend.

The notes will always be sporadic throughout the chart as I won’t always have something to say about every single arm.

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07/20/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2020 STARTING PITCHER RANKING REVIEW

• Reviewing my latest SP Rankings (here)

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We’re a week away from baseball. I unloaded the chamber and dropped 181 names here (and probably still missed SOMEONE). As with the last update, I’ll have a podcast or column out on Monday covering specifics, but for today here are the rankings with the comparison to the last list.

Let’s talk about these rankings the comments!

(Blue indicates a new tier starting)

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There is no argument that if two position players would be guaranteed to produce the exact stats, the one with multi-position eligibility should have more value. The added flexibility would be helpful while drafting or setting lineups. The question of how much value does it add remains unanswered? Todd Zola and I have attempted to answer the question with Todd coming to the conclusion of “adding $3 or $4 to each player in mixed formats, and a couple bucks in single-league formats.” That’s fine in theory but I wanted to see how the market values the flexibility in this short season by matching similar players with and without extra positions. In the end, the results matched up with Todd’s findings.
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With most teams planning to limit the innings their starters throw, there are going to be a few middle relievers who bridge the gap to the seventh to ninth-inning guys. Because most starters will not go five innings, these bridge relievers will have the chance to accumulate a few Wins while hopefully providing decent ratios. Here are some targets.

Every season, some middle relievers go off accumulating half dozen Wins and Saves, great ratios, and over 100 strikeouts. They are more valuable than most starters and closers. The deal is that no one has a clue which middle reliever it will be, but whoever rosters them will be loving it. I decided to query a target list.
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