Archive for Prospects

Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we’re taking a look at three young hitters who are seeing their prospect values surge as we enter the second half of the minor league season (Where has the time gone?).

Ian Happ | OF/2B | Cubs
ETA: 2017
Value: Rising

Predominantly an outfielder in college, the Cubs have moved Happ to second base in an attempt to get the most out of his value and help him fit on the Cubs. The jury remains out on the move, though, and his bat — much like Kyle Schwarber and the C vs OF debate — is more developed than the defensive skills. In fact, the young second baseman received a promotion to double-A just two days ago after hitting .296/.410/.475 in 69 high-A games. Happ, 21, can do a little bit of everything as a switch-hitter with speed, patience, pop and a solid eye at the plate. He reminds me of a young — less versatile — Ben Zobrist.

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We’ve spent much of the stock watches over the past few weeks looking at players on the upswing. Today, we’ll look at a player on the downswing, as well as a couple of prospects that might be getting overvalued in your fantasy leagues.

Orlando Arcia | SS | Brewers
Value: Steady
ETA: 2017

When the season began, it seemed to be a forgone conclusion that Arcia would be playing shortstop for the rebuilding Brewers by mid season but then placeholder Jonathan Villar went and started to realize his potential. As a result, that likely pushes Arcia’s debut back to either late 2016 or 2017. The Brewers could eventually rotate both Villar and Arcia through second base and shortstop, along with Scooter Gennett also seeing time at second base, unless a trade eventually frees up some playing time. Arcia is a much better real-life baseball player than fantasy contributor due to his best tool being his defence — followed by his hit tool and then his base-running abilities.

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With the 2016 amateur draft now in the rearview mirror and a new wave of talented headed for the minor league later this month as the short-season leagues get going, let’s take a look at some of the talented holdovers from previous drafts.

Austin Meadows | OF | Pirates
ETA: 2017
Value: Rising

The Pittsburgh Pirates currently have one of the best four-man outfields in the Majors and they’ll soon have to make room for Meadows. The young outfielder’s season got off to a slow start thanks to an injury but he’s looked sharp in his 41 games. He’s really doing a little bit of everything – at the plate (.962 OPS), in the field (handling center field) and on the base paths (8-for-11 in steals, 8 triples). Meadows, 21, doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster (and protected from the Rule 5 draft) until after the 2017 season so, while he’s likely to be promoted to triple-A during the summer, he’s likely not going to see The Show until next year – unless an unexpected and prolonged injury occurs to one of the veterans.

Francisco Mejia | C | Indians
ETA: 2019 (If he stays behind the plate) | 2018 (If he changes positions)
Value: Increasing

It’s been an ugly year for Indians backstops. First-stringer Yan Gomes is off to a terrible start at the plate (.561 OPS) and back-up Chris Gimenez has been equally bad (.553 OPS). The club also lost talented defensive whiz Roberto Perez to a potentially-season-ending injury after he appeared in just four games in 2016. Mejia himself is coming off of a disappointing first full season in the minors from 2015. Still, he’s just 20 and is enjoying himself the second time through the Midwest League. He’s hitting .338 through 50 games and has done a nice job of keeping his strikeouts under control at 15.5%. Mejia is also showing some gap pop and signs that he could eventually produce more over-the-fence pop. He has the necessary skills to remain behind the plate but there are questions over his desire to excel at the position.

Spencer Kieboom | C | Nationals
ETA: 2017
Value: Steady (but underrated)

Kieboom doesn’t possess the same upside that the two players above him do but solid all-around catchers are hard to find. The Nationals’ No. 1 catcher Wilson Ramos is enjoying a breakout season but he is also being buoyed by a .350 BABIP (high for a slow-footed catcher). Kieboom – whose brother Carter was the club’s first round draft pick in 2016 – isn’t flashy but he has a solid defensive reputation that should earn him playing time, he gets on base at a solid clip and he can also step into the odd extra base hit. He’s also a smart player with good instincts so he should only get better. Considering the lack of impact depth at the position in the organization, he should eventually pair nicely with Ramos or eventually replace him.

With the 2016 amateur draft zooming up quickly — at the beginning of next week — we’ve been looking at the current values of some of the top 2015 draft picks. Today, we’ll look at the first three college arms selected from last year.

Dillon Tate | RHP | Rangers
ETA: late 2017
Value: Steady

Despite being brought along cautiously with an assignment to low-A ball in ’16, Tate has struggled. The first college arm selected in last year’s draft has a 7.23 ERA through his first seven appearances of the year. He’s struggled with his command, which has led to 32 hits in 23.2 innings. His control has been OK, though, and he has just eight walks. His 28 strikeouts also suggest that he’s bound to break out of the funk. The Rangers system has all kinds of offensive talent throughout but the pitching ranks are fairly thin so the club is no doubt eager to see Tate get his feet under him sooner rather than later. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter if he develops properly.

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I’ll pick up on the prospect theme that Justin and Tom touched on in this week’s podcast: helium watch.  In other words, here are a four somewhat under the radar prospects that have caught my eye this year that could have increasing value over the second half of the season and turn into real assets in the near future in Ottoneu (and other deep leagues).

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We continue to count down to the 2016 amateur draft in early June by focusing on 2015 draft picks. Today, we’re looking at three of the top catchers selected last year. And it’s not really that pretty…

Austin Allen | Padres | C
ETA: 2018
Value: Rising

The other two catchers on this list were selected in the first round of the 2015 draft. Allen, though, lasted until the fourth round due to concerns over his ability to stick behind the plate. Those concerns are still there but there are fewer and fewer surrounding his bat. With that said, he’s come back down to earth a bit with the bat after an unreal start to the year in April. He’s hitting just .238 in May but his triple-slash line is still .349/.428/.460 in 36 games. Despite the recent downturn, the BB-K rate of 15-21 is solid and quality left-handed hitting catchers are always in demand. The Padres have some catching depth in the upper minors and at the big league level so Allen will have some time to polish his skills.

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We’re back with another edition of the Prospect Stock Watch. Today — in honor of the upcoming 2016 amateur draft — we’re catching up with three highly-coveted shortstops from the 2015 draft.

Dansby Swanson | Braves | SS
ETA: late 2016
Value: Rising steadily

Arizona nabbed Swanson with the first overall pick in the 2015 draft but flipped him later that winter to Atlanta in the ill-fated Shelby Miller deal (Or is it too early to judge the deal this harshly?). The change in address hasn’t hindered the young shortstop at all. After opening 2016 in high-A ball, he recently moved up to double-A and he’s producing a triple-slash of .299/.382/.474 in 24 games. Swanson, 22, likely won’t be a power-hitter but he has the pop in his bat to hit 30-40 doubles and eight to 10 homers, with enough speed to add another base or two to 20-30 hits via the steal. Veteran shortstop Erick Aybar is having a down-right-terrible season at the big league level so don’t be shocked to see Swanson in some big league action before the year is out. Another talented shortstop, Ozzie Albies, is also in the system and playing at triple-A but he’s been overmatched at that level as a 19 year old.

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The Prospect Stock Watch is back. It’s a feature that I’ve been writing since 2013 and have used it to predict breakouts for prospects such as the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks and the Phillies’ Odubel Herrera (who was with Texas at the time). Today, we look at a slugging outfielder and a couple of intriguing arms — including one that could impact the playoff race.

David Dahl | Rockies | OF
ETA: August 2016
Value: On the Rise

The San Francisco Giants have pulled away from the pack in recent days but the Rockies currently sit in second place — just three games out of first place. And the lineup has been doing quite well, buoyed by the early-season successes of third baseman Nolan Arenado and rookie shortstop Trevor Story. The outfielders have been holding their own but, outside of perhaps part-timer Ryan Raburn, haven’t exactly been tearing the cover off of the ball. Enter Dahl — whom the organization tabbed with the 10th overall selection back in 2012. Recovered from losing his spleen in 2015, the young outfielder is showing increased pop (10 homers in 38 games) to go along with solid on-base acumen and strong base running (13 steals in 15 tries). He could be a .300-30-20 (AVG-HR-SB) man in Colorado during his prime and just might be capable of providing a big-league spark to this team in the second half of 2016.

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When it comes to fantasy baseball, not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.

Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who has turned the Jose Reyes soap opera and strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.

As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.

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When it comes to fantasy baseball, not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.

Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who has turned the Jose Reyes soap opera and strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.

As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.

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