Archive for Prospects

“When is Alex Bregman getting called up?”

–I don’t know.

“When is Alex Reyes getting called up?”

–I don’t know.

“Do you know when any prospect with the first name ‘Alex’ is getting called up?”

—Alex Verdugo: May 22nd, 2017

Prospect call-up inquiries are the toughest to answer because in the majority of situations the team doesn’t even really know when they will call a guy up. With the trade deadline looming, prospects on the cusp get even a little more focus as they could either be traded to a situation with playing time availability or see their team move someone out in order to give them playing time directly. While far from a surefire method, one factor I like to consider is presence on the 40-man roster. It’s easier to get the call when you don’t force an additional move.

Here are a bunch of guys on the 40-man who could be on the way:

Manuel Margot | OF, San Diego Padres

He was acquired in the Craig Kimbrel deal with Boston and he’s done pretty well in his first shot with Triple-A, hitting .297 with 24 SBs. His .761 OPS generates just a 102 wRC+ in the Pacific Coast League, but he is a speed and defense asset in the short-term. We saw both on display at the Futures Game with an excellent home run-robbing catch. Melvin Upton or Matt Kemp (more likely Upton with Kemp signed for three more years) could be moved at the deadline to open a spot for Margot in early-August. If not, we may have to wait a little longer for Margot, but the 21-year old should get at least a taste this year.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we check in on a pair of shortstops with wide-ranging potentials. With plenty of trade rumors swirling around the Tampa Bay Rays’ hurlers, we also take a look a potential (lesser known) replacement arm for the club — should they pull the trigger on a trade or two.

Amed Rosario | SS | Mets
ETA: mid-2017
Value: Rising

The Mets have graduated some impressive prospects in recent years and Rosario could challenge Michael Conforto for the best position player grad in quite some time. The young shortstop hasn’t been as widely heralded as some other New York players but he has a chance to be one of the best shortstops in the league. Just 20, he opened 2016 in high-A ball but has spent the past 20 games in double-A where he’s hitting .405 with a 1.036 OPS. He’ll likely never be a home run hitter but he has a chance to hit some balls in the gap while flashing a plus hit tool with a great idea of the strike zone (31-48 BB-K rate in 86 games). Toss in some stolen bases and solid defence and you have a potential stud at shortstop for the Mets, likely beginning in mid-to-late 2017.

Kevin Newman | SS | Pirates
ETA: mid-2017
Value: Steady

Selected 19th overall in the 2015 draft, Newman nonetheless lacks an impact tool — although he’ll likely hit for average at the big league level. He’s not a big stolen base guy — despite having solid speed — and he’ll never hit for power with his approach — and has just 22 extra base hits in 65 games this season. He’ll be a pest, though, if he gets a chance to play everyday and will likely fit well in the No. 2 hole in a lineup. He has a great eye at the plate and rarely strikes out — but he also doesn’t walk much (28-19 BB-K rate). Newman, 22, will definitely be a big leaguer and he’ll probably get a shot to play everyday for a few years, but my money is on him developing into more of a (very good) utility player for most of his career.

Chih-Wei Hu | RHP | Rays
ETA: 2017
Value: Rising

Trade (and rebuilding) rumors continue to swirl around the Rays. Those rumors have mostly centered on Tampa Bay’s pitching — not surprising given the lack of available arms — and this organization definitely has some upper-level depth to backfill any holes created by trades. Blake Snell, Brent Honeywell, and Taylor Guerrieri are all fairly well-known prospects but Hu continues to pitch in anonymity despite good numbers at double-A and solid stuff. The Taiwan native isn’t a fireballer but he throws in the low 90s and has the potential for four average or better offerings. He also has the potential to develop into an innings-eater for the Rays. If he can develop more bite on his breaking ball, Wu could go from a potential 4/5 arm to more of a mid-rotation guy. Keep an eye on him.

Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we’re taking a look at two promising young hitters and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball — who just happened to get traded yesterday.

Christin Stewart | OF | Tigers
ETA: 2018
Value: Rising

Someone forgot to tell Stewart that the Florida State League is a pitcher’s league. Someone also forgot to tell him that the Tigers haven’t had much luck developing hitters in recent years. The 34th overall pick of the 2015 draft has hit the ground running in his first full pro season in 2016. He’s slugged 20 home runs and 37 of his 70 hits have gone for extra bases. Stewart, 22, has also shown a strong eye with 65 walks in 81 games. With all that said, he’ll likely always strike out a fair bit and his batting average is respectable but nothing to write home about. The Tigers are pretty set in the corner outfield positions with Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez but Victor Martinez isn’t going to be around much longer so Stewart could work his way into a part-time outfielder/part-time designated hitter role, perhaps in the second half of 2017 or, at the latest, 2018.

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The All-Star break is a time to furiously send trade offers before those bottom half teams check out, or at least try to entice them back to their computers for one last look at their teams so that they might help you improve yours. But we’re all in different types of leagues, so instead of a few mixed-league buy low players, I thought I would try to dream up some buy-low players for every situation. I won’t cover all of you, that’s impossible with the proliferation of fantasy baseball styles these days, but maybe I’ll cover more of you.

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Today at the Prospect Watch, we’re taking a look at a former first rounder who looks like a bust… and two talented (formerly traded) arms that look like they’ll develop into solid big league hurlers.

Max Fried | LHP | Braves
ETA: 2018
Value: Rising

The opportunity to acquire Fried in late 2014 was too tempting to pass up and the Braves acquired the young lefty from the Padres even though he was dealing with the aftermath of Tommy John surgery. After missing much of 2014 and all of ’15, he’s back on the mound and flashing three potentially-plus pitches. Pitching in low-A, he’s struck out 81 batters in 80.1 innings. His control has been understandably inconsistent — due to the long layoff. Fried, 22, is probably still two to three years away from Atlanta but he should be well worth the wait.

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It is mid-season prospect ranking time and I don’t want to feel left out. This past winter I introduced a stats only based system which ranks prospects by comparing at their position, age at the level, and production at the level. Since that release, I have made a few refinements to which I think make the results even better.

The inspiration behind these rankings is an industry league I compete in with 19 other prospect experts. These guys are good and read every available source possible, so I needed a source others didn’t have so I created these rankings. The rankings worked great this past offseason, especially when pointing out some players with prospect fatigue, namely Cheslor Cuthbert and Albert Almora. Both were highly touted when they first joined their teams but didn’t move as quickly as other prospects through their team’s system. The system pointed out that I should not give up on them yet.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at two well-known prospects and another (Cubs) player that I think people should know more about.

Yoan Moncada | 2B | Red Sox
ETA: 2017
Value: Sizzling

Moncada is already one of the better-known prospects in baseball so I won’t bore you with his background. Just 21, this Cuban native is close to a five-tool talent — although he’s probably just an average defender. At the plate, he hasn’t tapped into his raw power with just seven home runs in 75 games but the 28 doubles and five triples hint at the over-the-fence pop yet to come. As well, he’s a good runner with solid instincts and has already nabbed 39 bases this season. He’s a potential 20-20 threat as a big leaguer. With the young prospect on a collision course with the Majors in 2017 it will be interesting to see where Boston plays Moncada.

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On this holiday weekend, the Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at three players in varying degrees of breaking out for their respective organizations — including one young outfielder from Washington’s system that you don’t want to sleep on if you’re participating in a dynasty league.

Dawel Lugo | SS | Diamondbacks
Value: Inching Upward
ETA: 2018

It’s easy to dismiss Lugo’s solid start to the year given that he’s playing in a very good hitter’s league — and it might partially explain the increase in power — but he’s made some clear adjustments. The young shortstop’s walk rate is up a tad (to near 5% — good for him), the strikeout rate is down to just 13% and his batting average of .289 appears sustainable off of a .305 BABIP. That’s good because it remains to be seen how real the power increase is and Lugo doesn’t run so his offensive value will be very reliant on his batting average. He’ll likely move to third base down the road so consistent power will be important but he’s not going to push Jake Lamb off the hot corner and Brandon Drury is probably a better player too.

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Today we take a look at two outfielders who are following opposite tracks on the value scale for their respective organizations. We also revisit the Dodgers’ disgustingly deep pool of prospects with an under-sized right-hander under the microscope.

Brandon Nimmo | OF | Mets
ETA: Now
Value: Steady

Michael Conforto — the club’s first round pick from 2014 — has been demoted to the minors and replaced with another former first rounder. Nimmo (2011) was promoted to The Show over the weekend — and in his sixth pro season and after a solid showing in triple-A. The 23-year-old outfielder has produced a .409 on-base percentage and banged out 82 hits in 63 games. Getting on base is Nimmo’s game. He lacks consistent home-run pop and he doesn’t really run well despite having decent speed. As a result, he’s more of a future big league fourth (or platoon) outfielder than a true everyday guy — unless he suddenly pulls a Kevin Pillar and starts running through walls to catch fly balls.

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This week I wanted to take a look at the three top 1B prospects in AAA. I am not suggesting that these players will definitely get called up this season, but these are players I wanted to look at further either because of performance or because of opportunity. The player may not have a direct path right now, but could be moved creating that necessary path. The player may not be called up this season, but may provide value in those deep keeper leagues where minor leaguers hold value and could be an asset next season. Note that this article was written Thursday morning, so some of the stats may be off by a day.
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