Prospect Stock Watch: Tate, Jay, Fulmer

With the 2016 amateur draft zooming up quickly — at the beginning of next week — we’ve been looking at the current values of some of the top 2015 draft picks. Today, we’ll look at the first three college arms selected from last year.

Dillon Tate | RHP | Rangers
ETA: late 2017
Value: Steady

Despite being brought along cautiously with an assignment to low-A ball in ’16, Tate has struggled. The first college arm selected in last year’s draft has a 7.23 ERA through his first seven appearances of the year. He’s struggled with his command, which has led to 32 hits in 23.2 innings. His control has been OK, though, and he has just eight walks. His 28 strikeouts also suggest that he’s bound to break out of the funk. The Rangers system has all kinds of offensive talent throughout but the pitching ranks are fairly thin so the club is no doubt eager to see Tate get his feet under him sooner rather than later. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter if he develops properly.

Tyler Jay | LHP | Twins
ETA: late 2017
Value: Rising

The Twins have been known for developing bats in recent years but Minnesota has a strong wave of arms nearing The Show. Jay has been excellent in high-A ball this year with 55 strikeouts and just 14 free passes in 51.2 innings. A reliever throughout his college career and even during his first pro season, the lefty may be on a fairly tight innings count in ’16 so don’t be surprised if he moves back to the ‘pen towards the end of the year to save some bullets. He may see double-A in the second half of the year but the need to build up his strength could keep him in the minors until late 2017 or mid 2018. His four pitch mix — including a solid fastball and plus slider — could make him a solid No. 2 or 3 starter.

Carson Fulmer | RHP | White Sox
ETA: 2017
Value: Steady

The White Sox have pushed Fulmer aggressively since he’s turned pro and the right-hander has spent the ’16 season in double-A. It was a bit of a curious decision considering the struggles the hurler has had with both his command and his control. He’s walked 34 batters (compared to 36 Ks) in 46.0 innings and has also given up six home runs. Given the opportunity for a do-over, the club would probably start him in high-A ball to open the year but a demotion now probably wouldn’t be well received. Once he irons out the kinks, he has the stuff to be a No. 2 starter if he can command the ball more consistently. However, he could also be an impact reliever.





Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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RonnieDobbs
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RonnieDobbs

Kind of a weird write-up for Tate. You have to mention his murderous start to the season, followed by a DL stint, followed by horrendous results. Just looking at the numbers as a whole isn’t really accurate.