Earlier in the offseason, I examined out how reported Hit tool grades compared to actual MLB batting averages. I called the process a “mess” but figured it had some value. When I implemented the formula on MLB.com’s 2017 grades, commenters had the following to say about the projected batting average values:

“… not enough differentiation there in my opinion”
“… adjust your outputs to create more difference..”
“… hoping the table would be more conclusive…”
“…way too tightly grouped to the mean…”
“…it’s better to have no projection than to project everyone to be average…”
“… regressing too much to the mean…”
“… hit tool grades should be ignored…”
“…hit tool is undervalued in prospect analysis…”

I have no issue with the hit values being regressed to the mean. What I do have a problem with is if the hit tool is not measuring the correct factors. I needed to find out if reported hit grades provide any value. The following is a detailed look at how the hit tool is graded and how it fails to predict one simple factor, a hitter’s ability to get hits.

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As Paul Sporer noted last week, stolen bases are getting expensive in this year’s drafts. With players like Jose Peraza and Jarrod Dyson shooting up draft boards, it’s clear that fantasy owners are more than willing to pay for steals in 2017.

Personally, there is nothing I love more than a good bargain. I spent a good two minutes doing price comparisons on hot dog buns at the grocery store yesterday, before finding some off-brand buns for just 89 cents on the bottom shelf. I don’t care who you are, you don’t need to be spending big on hot dog buns.

This is the same approach I take to speed-only players in fantasy baseball (great transition, Scott). I don’t like to spend on speedsters in my leagues, partially because I know steals are probably going to be available on the waiver wire. There’s usually a handful of undrafted bench players or minor leaguers who end up swiping a significant number of bags.

Last year, Travis Jankowski stole 30 bases in 383 plate appearances. Keon Broxton swiped 23 in 244 PA. Dyson was another example, stealing 30 bases in his 337 PA. The aforementioned Peraza picked up 21 steals in 256 trips to the plate. It’s no coincidence that Dyson, Peraza and Broxton were the top three players Sporer mentioned last week when discussing rising ADPs.

I got to thinking about who those guys will be next year; the players who go undrafted in fantasy leagues this year, but end up in high demand in 2018 due to gaudy smallish-sample steal totals. I identified three players to keep an eye on for steals as the season progresses, or perhaps slot into a reserve or minor-league spot, if your league has those.

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Over the last two weeks I took a look at the top potential rookies for 2017. In most of those cases it wasn’t difficult to see how they might receive significant playing time during the coming season. Today, I’m taking a look at some players that might be MLB-ready in 2017 but lack clear paths to significant playing time.

Amed Rosario, SS, Mets: I first wrote about Rosario in 2014 when I deemed him the sleeper prospect in the system heading into 2015. Jump forward a few years and he’s undeniably the top prospect in their system and right up there as the top shortstop in baseball with Gleyber Torres and Dansby Swanson (who already has big league experience). Just 21, Rosario has shown the ability to be an elite defender at shortstop and should hit for a strong average with gap power (10-15 homers possible in his prime) and enough speed to net 15-20 bags. In New York, the club has shortstop covered by veterans Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes, both of whom are set to become free agents after the 2017 season — likely opening the door permanently for Rosario. Until then, though, he’ll spend the majority of the coming year at triple-A where he has yet to play after splitting 2016 between high-A and double-A.

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This past Thursday, I spoke at the SABR Analytics conference on my per pitch valuations (pERA).  I originally created them to form an understandable framework for comparing prospect pitching grades and major league results. Some byproducts of the work became useful like the effects of dropping a pitch. Today, I will make available new information I provided at the conference.

For the readers who aren’t familiar with the original work, it can be read in its 2500 word entirety in this previous article. Here is a summary.

• The key is to give each pitch an ERA value (pERA) based on the pitch’s swinging strike and groundball rates. All the values are based on the average values for starting pitcher. Closers will have higher grades because their stuff plays better coming out of the bullpen.
• The pitcher’s control is determined from their walk rate which is separate from the pitch grades.
• Each pitch is placed on the 20-80 scale with 50 being average, 80 great, and 20 horrible.

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During the past three weeks, I’ve been reviewing the 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves in Major League Baseball — and help your fantasy squad — in 2017. Last week, I took a look at the first six pitchers and today I’ll be reviewing the final six. You can also read Part 1 and Part 2 for the freshman hitters.

Potential Impact Rookie Pitchers for 2017 (part 2 of 2):

Anthony Banda, LHP, Diamondbacks: Arizona will likely trot out a starting rotation made up entirely of pitchers drafted, signed and developed by other organizations. Banda is another import — and was also a lesser known prospect until recently. A former Brewers draft pick, the southpaw has seen his velocity spike in the past year and he now sits far more consistently in the mid-90s. Add in a plus curveball and decent changeup and you have a pretty interesting arm. Banda has the stuff to dominate hitters and develop into a strikeout pitcher. He’s also shown his durability by compiling more than 150 innings in each of the past two seasons and could be set for 175+ innings in 2017. Banda, 23, will likely split the year between triple-A and the Majors but he’ll need an injury — or for another pitcher to stumble — before he gets his first shot at The Show.

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Over a two-week span, I’m going to be reviewing 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves in Major League Baseball — and help your fantasy squad — in 2017. Last week, I took a look at the 12 hitters (Part 1, Part 2) and today I’ll be reviewing the first six arms.

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2/28/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

• How good is Andrew Benintendi going to be this year? (1:48)

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Over about a two week period I’m going to be reviewing 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves in Major League Baseball in 2017. Last week, I took a look at the first six hitters and today I’ll be reviewing the final six.

Potential Impact Rookie Hitters for 2017 (continued):

Lourdes Gurriel, OF/IF, Blue Jays: Perhaps the biggest sleeper on this list, Gurriel — a Cuba native — hasn’t even played professionally in North America after signing with the Jays in the offseason. But he’s also one of the more intriguing prospects to come out of Cuba and should open his career in double-A or triple-A. A strong athlete, Gurriel could end up at any number of positions but the Jays’ greatest needs are likely in the outfield, although an injury to an infielder (Josh Donaldson, I’m looking at you and your calf) could change that in a hurry. Reports suggest he can do a little bit of everything on offence and his floor might be something along the lines of Sean Rodriguez. In truth, we won’t really know what the Jays have in Gurriel until he starts playing but the Jays’ lack of upper level depth (and lack of well-rounded athletes) could expedite his timetable.

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Over the next two weeks I’m going to be reviewing 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves at the Major League level — and aid your fantasy squad, as a result — in 2017. Today, we’re taking a look at six freshmen hitters with another six to come later in the week.

Potential Impact Rookie Hitters for 2017:

Willy Adames, SS, Rays: The Rays have some middle infield depth with the likes of Matt Duffy, Brad Miller and Nick Franklin in house but the emergence of Adames could help the cost-conscious Rays move on from Brad Miller, who is set to make more than $3 million in 2017 and is said to be tired of moving around the diamond. Adames, 21, had a breakout 2016 season despite being aggressively pushed from high-A (where he produced modest numbers in ’15) to double-A. He strikes out a fair bit but the young shortstop produced a .372 on-base percentage thanks to 74 free passes in 132 games and he began to tap into his raw power on a more consistent basis. Adames has 20+ home run potential and could also add double-digit steal totals. He’ll likely open the year in triple-A but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him in The Show as early as June.

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The San Francisco Giants of recent history have mystified the baseball world. Three unexpected World Series championships in five seasons will have that effect on people. In the mid-2000s, Giants fans endured teams that were Barry Bonds or bust. When Pablo Sandoval was named an All-Star in 2011, he became the first homegrown Giants position player to be so honored since Matt Williams in 1996.

All that has changed. Call it what you wish: Devil Magic, Pixie Dust, or Just Plain Luck. Any way you slice it, the modern Giants have churned out above-average position players at an above-average rate. Sandoval, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy have all made their mark on the big leagues since 2009, and most have been unexpected contributors to unexpected title runs. Read the rest of this entry »