This past Thursday, I spoke at the SABR Analytics conference on my per pitch valuations (pERA).  I originally created them to form an understandable framework for comparing prospect pitching grades and major league results. Some byproducts of the work became useful like the effects of dropping a pitch. Today, I will make available new information I provided at the conference.

For the readers who aren’t familiar with the original work, it can be read in its 2500 word entirety in this previous article. Here is a summary.

• The key is to give each pitch an ERA value (pERA) based on the pitch’s swinging strike and groundball rates. All the values are based on the average values for starting pitcher. Closers will have higher grades because their stuff plays better coming out of the bullpen.
• The pitcher’s control is determined from their walk rate which is separate from the pitch grades.
• Each pitch is placed on the 20-80 scale with 50 being average, 80 great, and 20 horrible.

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During the past three weeks, I’ve been reviewing the 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves in Major League Baseball — and help your fantasy squad — in 2017. Last week, I took a look at the first six pitchers and today I’ll be reviewing the final six. You can also read Part 1 and Part 2 for the freshman hitters.

Potential Impact Rookie Pitchers for 2017 (part 2 of 2):

Anthony Banda, LHP, Diamondbacks: Arizona will likely trot out a starting rotation made up entirely of pitchers drafted, signed and developed by other organizations. Banda is another import — and was also a lesser known prospect until recently. A former Brewers draft pick, the southpaw has seen his velocity spike in the past year and he now sits far more consistently in the mid-90s. Add in a plus curveball and decent changeup and you have a pretty interesting arm. Banda has the stuff to dominate hitters and develop into a strikeout pitcher. He’s also shown his durability by compiling more than 150 innings in each of the past two seasons and could be set for 175+ innings in 2017. Banda, 23, will likely split the year between triple-A and the Majors but he’ll need an injury — or for another pitcher to stumble — before he gets his first shot at The Show.

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Over a two-week span, I’m going to be reviewing 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves in Major League Baseball — and help your fantasy squad — in 2017. Last week, I took a look at the 12 hitters (Part 1, Part 2) and today I’ll be reviewing the first six arms.

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2/28/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

• How good is Andrew Benintendi going to be this year? (1:48)

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Over about a two week period I’m going to be reviewing 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves in Major League Baseball in 2017. Last week, I took a look at the first six hitters and today I’ll be reviewing the final six.

Potential Impact Rookie Hitters for 2017 (continued):

Lourdes Gurriel, OF/IF, Blue Jays: Perhaps the biggest sleeper on this list, Gurriel — a Cuba native — hasn’t even played professionally in North America after signing with the Jays in the offseason. But he’s also one of the more intriguing prospects to come out of Cuba and should open his career in double-A or triple-A. A strong athlete, Gurriel could end up at any number of positions but the Jays’ greatest needs are likely in the outfield, although an injury to an infielder (Josh Donaldson, I’m looking at you and your calf) could change that in a hurry. Reports suggest he can do a little bit of everything on offence and his floor might be something along the lines of Sean Rodriguez. In truth, we won’t really know what the Jays have in Gurriel until he starts playing but the Jays’ lack of upper level depth (and lack of well-rounded athletes) could expedite his timetable.

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Over the next two weeks I’m going to be reviewing 12 rookie hitters and 12 rookie pitchers that could make signifiant waves at the Major League level — and aid your fantasy squad, as a result — in 2017. Today, we’re taking a look at six freshmen hitters with another six to come later in the week.

Potential Impact Rookie Hitters for 2017:

Willy Adames, SS, Rays: The Rays have some middle infield depth with the likes of Matt Duffy, Brad Miller and Nick Franklin in house but the emergence of Adames could help the cost-conscious Rays move on from Brad Miller, who is set to make more than $3 million in 2017 and is said to be tired of moving around the diamond. Adames, 21, had a breakout 2016 season despite being aggressively pushed from high-A (where he produced modest numbers in ’15) to double-A. He strikes out a fair bit but the young shortstop produced a .372 on-base percentage thanks to 74 free passes in 132 games and he began to tap into his raw power on a more consistent basis. Adames has 20+ home run potential and could also add double-digit steal totals. He’ll likely open the year in triple-A but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him in The Show as early as June.

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The San Francisco Giants of recent history have mystified the baseball world. Three unexpected World Series championships in five seasons will have that effect on people. In the mid-2000s, Giants fans endured teams that were Barry Bonds or bust. When Pablo Sandoval was named an All-Star in 2011, he became the first homegrown Giants position player to be so honored since Matt Williams in 1996.

All that has changed. Call it what you wish: Devil Magic, Pixie Dust, or Just Plain Luck. Any way you slice it, the modern Giants have churned out above-average position players at an above-average rate. Sandoval, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy have all made their mark on the big leagues since 2009, and most have been unexpected contributors to unexpected title runs. Read the rest of this entry »

Prospect list season is in full swing. Our Eric Longenhagen is knocking out his team lists. Keith Law has just finished his top 100 and team lists. Baseball America is done with their team rankings and is working on their prospect annual. And MLB.com just released their position rankings and top 100. The MLB.com’s top 100 list intrigues me the most. Since it provides scouting grades, it can be used to project a hitter’s fantasy value.

Earlier this offseason, I had a series on using prospect grades to project MLB talent.  While Field and Arm grades help to keep some players playing, defense doesn’t count in fantasy leagues. By comparing a hitter’s Bat, Power, and Speed grades I was able to come up with an overall 20-80 fantasy grade and projected full season stats. These values aren’t close to the final say in player values. They are just an input to be used with scouting reports, normal projections, and other systems like KATOH. Read the rest of this entry »

This past weekend saw the release of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, including a show on MLB Network highlighting the Top 50. Andrew Benintendi was named their #1 overall prospect, a fact that’s sure raise his price some in the draft market, especially after Keith Law ranked him the same last week. Back in December, our own Trey Baughn gave him the top spot in his fantasy prospects list and CBS slotted him 2nd in a similar list focusing on fantasy impact.

I’m a little torn on Benintendi for 2017. On the one hand, he’s an advanced college bat who blitzed through the minors in 151 games and acquitted himself very well in a 34-game sample at the majors. On the other, he’s going into his age-22 season with a whopping 118 PA under his belt and that first six-month grind has a way of punching players in the face at some – or multiple points – throughout the season. But then back on the first hand, we know from Jeff Zimmerman that aging curves are moving up so maybe Benintendi is ready to be an impact bat already.

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Welcome to the final installment of the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Tyler Naquin (OF): Naquin burst onto the scene in 2016, taking advantage of injuries and never looking back. He hit for more power than expected — 14 homers and a .218 ISO in 321 at-bats — during his MLB debut so it will be interesting to see if it was a blip on the radar or a sign of things to come (10 home runs was previously a career high). His strikeout rate, too, was a surprise. After sitting around 20-23%, it spiked to just under 31%. It took a BABIP of .411 to compensate for the contact issues so a batting average near .300 will likely not continue unless he makes some adjustments. He appears pencilled in at center field for Cleveland in 2017.

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