Tye Tolberman sat in his favorite armchair on the coldest day of mid-January in western Maryland, steam coming off his morning coffee as he looked out the window. He took one glance at the ice covering his driveway and decided he just wasn’t going outside today. On his side table sat a pile of unopened letters, a checklist of things needed to be done, and a printed-out spreadsheet a friend had given him the last time he went east to see the Bowie Baysox play last summer.

“It fell out of some scout’s binder the last time I was here. He went flying out of there after the starting pitcher got taken out, so I couldn’t catch him to give it back”, his friend told him as they sat and took in a night game. “Anyways, you can have it if you want. I’m not wasting my time with that fantasy baseball crap this year. I’ve got too much real life to live”, and he placed it in the hands of ol’ Tye Tolberman, manager of the going-on 14-year-old “Buck’s Bucks” fantasy team.

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“But wait, Chad,” you say. “You have told us so many times that allocation arbitration dollars to prospects doesn’t make sense! Why even write this article?”

“You’re right,” I reply. “I probably shouldn’t. But I am going to do it anyway. Let me tell you why.”

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On Monday, September 5th, Labor Day, I sat in parking lot traffic in Baltimore, trying to make it into Camden Yards by the first pitch. This was a first in a long time. I wasn’t clogged in a traffic jam trying to leave the parking lot, I was trying to get in. As a Maryland native, Camden Yards has been the place where I’ve taken in the majority of my live baseball action and I could tell, as parking lot attendants waived me on to the next lot around the block, something was in the air. When I got to the stadium, there was more energy, more talk in the crowd about the actual team, and though the nose-bleed seats in left-field remained empty, there were more fans. Baltimore has always drawn an excellent, engaged fanbase to the stadium. But as you can imagine, the past few years have been a little quieter. On Monday the fans piled in to watch a pivotal matchup against the division rival Blue Jays and in the top of the eighth, the Orioles held the game at a one-run deficit.

O’s reliever Bryan Baker was throwing when this happened:

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8/18/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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10 HITTING PROSPECTS

• Gunnar Henderson (1:44)
• Josh Jung (6:38)
• Alec Burleson (10:22)
• Mark Vientos (13:45)
  • Brett Baty
• Ji-hwan Bae (16:15)

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Over the last two seasons, several highly-touted rookies have struggled with the jump to the majors like Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, Joey Bart, and Josh Lowe. I examined strikeout and shift numbers. Also, I wanted to find the major league replacement level OPS where hitters get demoted this season. Usually, it’s just under .650 but I was wondering if it has changed.

I’m not going to put a story around each study. Examples of hitters struggling with the jump to the majors are everywhere. I just want the facts when those stories pop up in the future. Read the rest of this entry »

The Call-Ups Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Pierre Camus

Strategy Section

• General strategy regarding June Call-Ups / mid-season prospects
• Are hitter call-ups more or less valuable / reliable than pitcher call-ups?
• Trading prospects in redraft leagues

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

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Last week, I covered four prospects rostered in less than 10% of Ottoneu leagues who deserve more attention. This week, I want to go the other direction and look at prospects who are rostered in too many leagues. This proved far more difficult, for a couple of reasons.

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Yesterday, I listed and reviewed the six hitters who had posted a 30%+ HR/FB rate at Triple-A this season. Sadly, the list didn’t result in a whole lot of actionable advice. Today, I’ll shift to a related metric, ISO. In terms of overall offense, it’s more important than HR/FB rate since it accounts for doubles and triples as well. Given the number of duplicates on both lists and an attempt to capture more actionable players, I extended the list to the top 10. Let’s hope this time the names are more interesting.

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Let’s move our Triple-A review to hitters. Us fantasy owners probably care most about a prospect’s home run potential, so let’s review the HR/FB rate leaders. These are the guys who have recorded at least 150 PAs and posted a HR/FB rate of at least 30%.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the pitcher SwStk% leaders at Triple-A hoping to uncover some potentially exciting stashes. The list was a bit underwhelming, though it did include some of the very best prospects. So what if we really don’t care how the strikeouts are generated, just that the pitcher is racking them up? Let’s now look at the strikeout rate leaders at Triple-A and see if there are any additional names to keep watch on.

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