8/18/22

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10 HITTING PROSPECTS

• Gunnar Henderson (1:44)
• Josh Jung (6:38)
• Alec Burleson (10:22)
• Mark Vientos (13:45)
  • Brett Baty
• Ji-hwan Bae (16:15)

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Over the last two seasons, several highly-touted rookies have struggled with the jump to the majors like Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, Joey Bart, and Josh Lowe. I examined strikeout and shift numbers. Also, I wanted to find the major league replacement level OPS where hitters get demoted this season. Usually, it’s just under .650 but I was wondering if it has changed.

I’m not going to put a story around each study. Examples of hitters struggling with the jump to the majors are everywhere. I just want the facts when those stories pop up in the future. Read the rest of this entry »

The Call-Ups Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Pierre Camus

Strategy Section

• General strategy regarding June Call-Ups / mid-season prospects
• Are hitter call-ups more or less valuable / reliable than pitcher call-ups?
• Trading prospects in redraft leagues

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

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Last week, I covered four prospects rostered in less than 10% of Ottoneu leagues who deserve more attention. This week, I want to go the other direction and look at prospects who are rostered in too many leagues. This proved far more difficult, for a couple of reasons.

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Yesterday, I listed and reviewed the six hitters who had posted a 30%+ HR/FB rate at Triple-A this season. Sadly, the list didn’t result in a whole lot of actionable advice. Today, I’ll shift to a related metric, ISO. In terms of overall offense, it’s more important than HR/FB rate since it accounts for doubles and triples as well. Given the number of duplicates on both lists and an attempt to capture more actionable players, I extended the list to the top 10. Let’s hope this time the names are more interesting.

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Let’s move our Triple-A review to hitters. Us fantasy owners probably care most about a prospect’s home run potential, so let’s review the HR/FB rate leaders. These are the guys who have recorded at least 150 PAs and posted a HR/FB rate of at least 30%.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the pitcher SwStk% leaders at Triple-A hoping to uncover some potentially exciting stashes. The list was a bit underwhelming, though it did include some of the very best prospects. So what if we really don’t care how the strikeouts are generated, just that the pitcher is racking them up? Let’s now look at the strikeout rate leaders at Triple-A and see if there are any additional names to keep watch on.

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If you’re in a deep league and your free agent pool is barren, now is a good time to start perusing the minor league leaderboards for potential callups who could earn positive fantasy value. Today, I’ll start with pitcher SwStk% leaders. In my non-scientific observations, a pitcher’s minor league SwStk% better correlates with his MLB strikeout rate. That means that if I see a high strikeout rate without a high SwStk% in the minors (such as a 30% strikeout rate, but only 11% SwStk%), I’m not optimistic the pitcher will post a strong strikeout rate in the Majors. On the other hand, if I see a high SwStk%, but mediocre strikeout rate, I think there’s more upside, and won’t shy away.

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For a variety of reasons, since the start of June I have been reloading my Ottoneu rosters with prospects and have been surprised to see some interesting names almost universally available. While I am not a prospect expert by trade, I love scouting stat lines, reading scouting reports, and finding prospects who others may not have noticed yet. These four players are all rostered in less than 10% of Ottoneu leagues and should be on your radar.

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The Prospects Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Eric Cross

Strategy Section

• How important is it for fantasy redraft players to be aware of prospects?
  • Does it differ for hitters vs. pitchers?
  • Is it more important to know about prospects pre-draft or during the season?
• Royce Lewis
  • What is Minnesota’s positional plan for him?
• Struggling Prospects
  • How much did the missed 2020 season play into this year’s struggling prospect crop?
    • How does it change how you approach prospects for fantasy in 2022?
• Top prospects in baseball & top impact prospects for 2022
  • Corbin Carroll
  • Robert Hassell III
  • Cal Mitchell
  • Riley Greene
  • C.J. Abrams
  • Adley Rutschman
  • Grayson Rodriguez
  • Noelvi Marte
  • Jordan Walker
  • Triston Casas
  • Vinnie Pasquantino
  • Miguel Vargas

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