In part 1, I looked at the first five of my post-hype prospects. They aren’t necessarily ranked in order of preference in that piece, but they grouped together as the top tier from this group. I’ve got a second group of seven guys who essentially make up another tier that is a cut or two below the first five. To recap how I’m choosing these guys, here’s what I said in the first part:

I’m looking at younger players with medium-to-high prospect pedigree that they haven’t cashed in yet. They’ve had some major league time (usually 300+ PA, but I didn’t have a specific set of statistical parameters) with maybe a spurt of success, but there’s a real shot for much more, especially if the playing time is there. Best of all, they won’t cost much at the draft table. Examples would include the Tim Beckham and Chris Taylor types. Beckham, of course, was a former #1 overall who was written off in some circles before he could legally drink. Meanwhile, Taylor never had the hype of a Beckham, but was firmly Top 10 in the Seattle org. for 2013 lists and might’ve charted in some Top 100s had he not expired his rookie status in 2014.

Without further ado…

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I like the Sox system, but not for the same reasons as most people. Lucas Giolito should be a decent mid-rotation arm and Eloy Jimenez is going to be a star… but Luis Robert and Blake Rutherford are overrated. Players being undervalued, though, include Alec Hansen, Dane Dunning, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, A.J. Puckett, and Aaron Bummer.

The Graduate: Yoan Moncada, 2B: As they’re known to do quite often, the White Sox rushed Moncada through the minors after getting their paws on him in the Chris Sale deal last winter. Now, he did hold his own in The Show as a roughly league-average hitter, but the strikeout rate of 32% suggests more issues are to come unless he makes adjustments. Just 22, Moncada has a tantalizing power-speed combo and could be a mainstay in the middle of the Sox lineup if the adjustments happen. Look for him to have an up-and-down year in 2018.

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It’s probably been awhile since you’ve read a traditional “buy low, sell high” article.  In today’s golden age of baseball analytics where complex physics and statistics can be boiled down to a few simple indicators accessed instantly using one hand, it’s not very often that we (readers, fans, fantasy players) find ourselves in possession of knowledge before the masses.  For example, try “selling” Avisail Garcia and his recent .375 wOBA around your league without getting some type of response that includes “yeah, but he had a .392 BABIP”.

Thankfully, despite all the data available at our fingertips, the one ingredient that will always play a critical role in the mixture of value is the human element of perception, which can swing wildly in different directions depending who you’re dealing with.  Today I’d like to isolate a few players who’s perception may be suppressing their actual value a little more than it should be, which may represent a buying opportunity for savvy fantasy owners prepping for 2018.  The good news is you don’t have to stand in line to land these deals, but you will still need to get them early.

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The Royals system lacks can’t-miss, high-impact talent but it has some depth. I’m a big fan of catcher M.J. Melendez.

The Graduate: Scott Alexander, LHP: This southpaw (who’s equally successful against both right- and left-handed hitters) is one of the most underrated relievers in the game — especially during this period of juiced balls. His eye-popping ground-ball rate of 78% led the Majors and he struck out a quite a few more batters (21%) than the typical sinker ball pitcher. He was also an anomaly because threw his 94 mph heater a whopping 94% of the time with his slider a very distant 4.5%. His success is somewhat impress considering big league hitters always know what’s coming.

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Last season’s trades — especially those with Houston and Chicago (NL) — gave new life to the Tigers system. Plus, 2016 first rounder Matt Manning could be an absolute stud and should see his value skyrocket in 2018 as he enters pro ball. The club should also consider moving Matt Hall from the starting rotation (where he’s a fringe prospect) to the bullpen (where he could develop into a key reliever).

The Graduate: Jeimer Candelario, 3B: The Cubs flipped veteran players Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Cubs at last season’s trade deadline with Candelario as the key player received in return. However, I’ve never been a huge fan of the young third baseman and I doubt he’s going to be a star. Candelario, who turns 24 in a few days, is pretty average across the board in terms of his ability to hit for average or power (although the juiced ball has everyone hitting 20-30 homers). His biggest asset at the plate is his strong eye, which allows him to produce good on-base numbers. Defensively, he has a chance to be steady but unspectacular.

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There are many paths to success in baseball. Some guys hit the ground running as soon as they’re called up. Others fall on their face immediately and then find their footing and reach or exceed expectations. Then there are those who take a little while. The prospect sheen has worn off and the fantasy community has long since forgotten about them before they finally get it. I mention the fantasy community specifically because as a whole we’re really bad about sticking with prospects.

A player pretty much has to be from that first group of guys who get it immediately or their stock plummets. Part of that is the nature of single-year leagues. We can really only focus on the here and now. Even keeper leagues can’t always wait. In most keepers, you have a limited number of spots or escalating costs meaning you can only hang on so long. Dynasty leagues are different altogether, which is why you get more stories from those leagues about hanging onto the late bloomer for 3-4 seasons before he finally popped. Today I’m looking at a group of once-heralded hitters who’ve yet to click, but still hold at least a flicker of hope. That hope may finally come to fruition in 2018.

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The Cardinals don’t get a lot of love for their minor league depth but I believe some of their prospects are deserving of more attention than they’ve received so far.

The Graduate: Paul DeJong, IF: No one really saw DeJong coming — although the Cardinals clearly had some hope for him after selecting him in the fourth round of the 2015 draft. He entered pro ball as a third baseman but shifted up the middle in 2017 and thrived. After slugging 22 home runs at double-A in 2016, he slugged 38 homers between triple-A and the Majors in ’17. DeJong, 24, has a chance to be a very good player but he’ll need to tighten up his approach approach at the plate after walking less than 5% and striking out at a 28% clip.

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My review of a recent Ottoneu dynasty prospect draft continues today with highlights from rounds 10 – 12.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 4 – 6

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 7 – 9

This draft should help you “discover” a few prospect names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted. You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

A few of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

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This was supposed to be a quick paragraph on Max Fried but it turned into a borderline Quick Look. I was doing an article on pitchers who saw their ERA balloon because of starts at Coors. His non-Colorado ERA dropped stood at 3.09 vs 3.81 which made him seem like a borderline ace. I kept digging and found additional encouraging information. Here are some of my thoughts on my first 2018 deeper sleeper.

First, here’s how industry sources graded him including his pERA grades from his short MLB stint.

Some definite disparities exist. I will examine each pitch with a video from his September 9th start against the Marlins.

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The Pirates have done a nice job developing pitchers over the past few years and there are more on the way.

The Graduate: Trevor Williams, RHP: When Tyler Glasnow crashed and burned, Williams stepped up his game and was arguably the third most valuable arm on the staff. The rookie hurler isn’t flashy but he throws strikes, induces a good number of ground balls and threw 150 innings. Traded from the Marlins organization in 2015, his 2.2 WAR surpassed all Miami hurlers in 2017 so it’s probably one trade that The Fish would like back. Williams throws his fastball — which averaged just 92 mph in 2017 — more than 70% of the time but his above-average command of it makes it play up. He sprinkles in a slider and a changeup. Williams has a very basic approach and he’ll need to see his secondary offerings improve (and utilize them more) if he’s going to continue to dominate big league hitters.

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