Ottoneu: Prospect Hitters That Might Be Worth Rostering for 2024
Rostering minor leaguers in any Ottoneu format is super fun. It’s fun because you get to take a chance on a player. Build your roster now in order to plan for the future. Isn’t that what so many real-world teams are doing? Yet, it can be cumbersome to hold onto a player for a few years while paying them a $1 or more in salary when you really don’t know when and even if they will pan out.
A few months ago, I was up against this very challenge. Rostering Jack Leiter was exciting. He was a college pitcher with a lot of hype and talent and now a minor leaguer who has held onto both of those traits. But, I needed to try and quantify how much he would be worth in a few years. His MLB ETA isn’t until this season and likely the end of this season. Looking for a range of reasonable salary expectations, I used ZiPs’ 2024 and 2025 projections to get a sense of how to value Leiter in a few years. My analysis concluded that Leiter would likely only return somewhere around $4 in 2023 and that’s if he meets the higher end of likely outcomes. I was paying $6, too much for this year, so I cut him.
Rostering Leiter at $6 doesn’t make sense for 2023. But now that he is back on the waiver wire, should I attempt to re-roster him for $1? In order for that to make sense, two things need to happen. First, he needs to return over $1 of value in 2023. Second, he needs to return over $1 of value in 2024 and pass through arbitration untouched at the end of the 2023 season. Only then is he worth selecting for a $1. In this analysis, I’ll look at the players who are most likely to pass through those qualifiers. Choo! Choo! All aboard the hypothetical train! Here’s a map of our journey:
Step 1: Take a deep breath. A lot of assumptions are going to be made here. This is not an exact science. Please, do not rush to your player page and start auctioning off these players at these exact prices. Use these values as a jumping-off point.
Step 2: Grab a pool of minor league players who have not yet debuted from “The Board” with a Future FV value greater than or equal to 30 and subset it down to players with a “Current Level” not equal to “MLB”.
Step 3: Download ZiPs 2024 projections for the players in Step 2 and calculate their Ottoneu FanGraphs points totals based on those projections.
Step 4: Add those players into the auction calculator’s outputs, sort by rPTS, and see what the value is for players in that same rPTS area. Keep in mind, player value is altered by positional adjustments.
This process ultimately tells us what these players’ auction value could be if they play to their full zips projections in 2024 and the league looks identical to this season’s (2023) player pool. It tells us how much they should be valued for next year.
Out of the 271 prospects I downloaded from the board, 242 had a “Current Level” other than MLB. Of those 242, only 60 have been projected by ZiPs for 2024. Of those 60, only 15 (but number 1 on the list kind of doesn’t count) end up with a positive projected value in 2024. Here they are:
| Name | rPTS | Pos | aPOS | Dollar Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida | 769.2 | LF | $20.33 | $22-$26 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 749.0 | 3B | $12.55 | $18-20 |
| Anthony Volpe | 719.9 | 2B | $15.03 | $15-$16 |
| Andy Pages | 680.8 | RF | $20.33 | $13-$15 |
| Endy Rodriguez | 633.2 | C | $24.10 | $12-$14 |
| Colton Cowser | 650.6 | LF | $20.33 | $11-$12 |
| George Valera | 640.4 | RF | $20.33 | $9-$10 |
| Noelvi Marte | 656.7 | 3B | $12.55 | $5-$6 |
| Michael Busch | 655.3 | DH | $12.55 | $5-$6 |
| Matt Mervis | 638.9 | 1B | $14.73 | $4-$5 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 609.9 | CF | $20.33 | $4-$5 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 623.6 | SS | $14.55 | $2-$3 |
| Jordan Westburg | 614.8 | 2B | $15.03 | $1-$2 |
| Addison Barger | 599.7 | 2B | $15.03 | $1-$2 |
| Zac Veen | 582.5 | RF | $20.33 | $1-$2 |
**ZiPs projections
Now, it’s very, very possible that this process excluded some highly touted prospects. Hopefully, I was clear enough with my process that you can hypothesize as to why they were left out or replicate a version of this for yourself. This is not a top draftable prospects list. I repeat; This is not a top draftable prospects list. For example, where is Jordan Walker? Well, ZiPs doesn’t necessarily project Walker to be roster-able in 2024. Here’s where the Cardinals prospect stands in this process:
| Name | rPTS | Pos | aPOS | Dollar Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Lowe | 539.1 | OF | $19.28 | -$4.58 |
| Jordan Walker | 538.8 | RF | $19.28 | |
| Adam Duvall | 537.6 | OF | $19.28 | -$4.79 |
**ZiPs projections
Now, to see why Walker falls out of a roster-able projected salary, let’s look at his 2024 ZiPs projections compared to a couple players high on this list, Colton Cowser and Christian Encarnacion-Strand:
| Name | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | SB | CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 523 | 136 | 28 | 4 | 29 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| Colton Cowser | 525 | 124 | 27 | 1 | 16 | 66 | 14 | 8 | 3 |
| Jordan Walker | 491 | 117 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
**ZiPs projections
You can see why Cowser has more projected value in 2024, but you can also see how this system has some flaws. Walker has already been creating a lot of buzz in Spring Training and many might look at that 2024 projection and scoff. Projecting players who haven’t appeared in the MLB yet is hard. Time is money and if I had more of it, I would go about the valuation a little more scientifically. Rather than comparing rPTS and suggesting a value range, it would be interesting to iterate through runs of the auction calculator, each time removing the player the minor leaguer would be replacing and determining value from a more believable player pool. I think I’ve gotten close enough for now. Roster any of the players listed above for $1, make it through the end of the 2023 season arbitration without their salaries increasing, and you have a good chance at value in 2024.
