RotoGraphs Dynasty Rankings
All models are wrong, but some are useful.
Archive for Prospects
Prospect Impact: Max Clark & Quinn Matthews
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
A couple of “touted” prospects just got promoted, and here is my evaluation on each.
Quinn Matthews: Cardinals Starting Pitcher
I’m optimistic Matthews can eventually be a major league pitcher if he can throw strikes. Let’s start with the good before getting to his command. In each of the past two Triple-A seasons, the 25-year-old lefty has posted strikeout rates around 10.5 K/9. He’s attacking batters with this five-pitch mix (combined stats from ’25 and ’26).
Dynasty Due Diligence: Late July 2026
July 31, 2026
Series Overview
This series aims to help readers conduct their routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to discuss a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who may have seen their perceived value shift recently. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C) with OOPSY DC (ROS).
Prospect Valuation Follow-Up Pt. 2
Intro
On Tuesday, I followed up my study from last week on how prospect lists translate to fantasy auction value. Last week’s research primarily identified key stratifications in career and peak value based on list placement and whether the player is primarily a pitcher or a hitter. This week, I found that the predictiveness of ranking lists relative to fantasy auction value doesn’t seem to be changing much over time.
But before crossing “prospect lists” off of my dynasty ranking model checklist, I wanted to combine these two analyses to look at how or if the ranking buckets hold when broken into more granular year groupings. This is important to my final rankings because I want whatever bucket groupings I use to be representative enough to capture a reasonable picture of the forward-looking value of a given prospect.
So, how do the buckets shake out? Well, read on.
Prospect Valuation Follow-Up
Last week, I studied how well Baseball America’s prospect rankings translated into eventual fantasy performance.
The results were fairly conclusive; after adjusting to floor negative-value seasons, hitters performed better than pitchers, and there was clearer stratification in hitter value across different ranking buckets than their counterparts.
That analysis included a significant amount of data going back to BA’s original lists in 1990, which has its pluses and minuses. On the plus side, the more the merrier. Sample sizes are bigger and we can more confidently assert statistical significance with the right tests. But on the other hand, 1990 was a long time ago (a phrase typed with millennial tears hitting the keyboard). Macro trends in prospect evaluation and baseball writ large have changed immensely.
Prospect Valuations for Fantasy
Intro
You may have noticed over the years that RotoGraphs has not typically published dynasty rankings. This is likely for any number of reasons. There is no lack of dynasty content or rankings on other sites and, absent a ranking model that adds particular value relative to the rest of the industry, there isn’t much incentive to, as my editor put it, “vibe out a list of rankings.”
I wanted to change that, though. The full rankings model is not ready to hit the press yet, but I wanted to walk you through some of the steps and methodology that are going into my rankings because I both value transparency and think that there are useful insights to glean along the way. First up is the key differentiator in any dynasty ranking: prospects.
OOPSY 2026 Midseason Top 100 Prospects
July 17, 2026
With over half of the 2026 season in the books, it’s a good a time to update OOPSY’s Top 100 prospects list, this time with a fantasy spin.
Rookie Check In: Five Hitters With Name Value to Buy, Sell, or Hold
It’s been a few weeks since we covered several rookie hitters. Rookies have been making a significant impact on the fantasy baseball landscape from a pitching and hitting standpoint. Several rookie hitters and pitchers have been starting in fantasy lineups instead of simply being stash candidates. These rookie hitters have name value, so they could be possible candidates to buy, sell, or hold based on their underlying metrics, skills, playing time, and peak projections. Read the rest of this entry »
Dynasty Due Diligence: Early June 2026
June 4, 2026
Series Overview
This series aims to help readers conduct their routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to suggest free agent adds and drops as well as trade candidates and targets. Each entry will highlight a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who have seen their perceived value shift recently. For each player I will offer a “verdict,” an open-ended recommendation on how I would value the player moving forward. Forgive me as these suggestions may sometimes enter the realm of “hot takes.” Most of my dynasty leagues are 14 to 20-team 5×5 roto leagues, but this series aims to be broadly relevant for all keeper and dynasty formats. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings with OOPSY DC (ROS) unless I say otherwise (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C). When referencing an OOPSY Peak WAR projection, I am referencing their up-to-date peak WAR projection assuming a full season of playing time: 600 PA for hitters and 198 innings pitched for arms.
Beat the Shift Podcast – Prospects Part II Episode w/ James Anderson
by Ariel Cohen
June 3, 2026
The Prospects Part II episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: James Anderson
Strategy Section
- Prospects
- Which matters more – projections or in-season minor league statistics?
- Drafting prospects pre-season
- How to know when to sit/start a prospect during the season?
- How to know when to keep/drop a prospect during the season?
- General trade advice for dynasty leagues
Prospects
- Prospects to know for 2026
- Prospects to know for 2027
Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
Buy/Sell/Hold/Drop
- Hot Players
- Cold Players
Injury Update
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS