Fantasy Update: 2025 Re-Draft and Dynasty Prospects to Know

Prospects have become increasingly important to winning re-draft fantasy leagues. Of course, they have always been major in-season acquisitions, but now they’re making their presence felt at the draft table, too. With more fantasy managers aware of the prospects who are likely to have an impact in a given season, the battle for their services has become much more fevered, leading some managers to stash desirable prospects for a month or two rather than try to pluck them off the wire once they are called up and risk missing out.

These guys aren’t draftable in every format, but I cast a wide net so that the list has utility across many formats and can be revisited when those players who don’t break camp on a big league roster are called up. All of them should be in the majors for a substantial portion of the 2025 season. It is worth familiarizing yourself with them so that you’re ready to bid on the ones who aren’t draftable in your particular league.

These rankings are now available on the 2025 Fantasy Rankings tab of The Board, where you can also see the Top 150 Dynasty Rankings!

Not a Prospect, Still a Rookie

Players who the CBA deems to be “foreign professionals” (those who are at least 25 years old and have played in a foreign pro league for at least six seasons) no longer qualify for our Top 100 list, but they are still rookies for fantasy purposes, so they get their own section. There’s only one relevant guy who fits the bill this year, as that super famous pitcher you’re definitely thinking about had not yet met the foreign professional standards set forth in the CBA when he was posted. He signed a minor league deal as part of the 2025 international class, was subject to bonus pool restrictions, and just ranked as the no. 1 prospect on our Top 100, so we will get to him later.

Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 | 2B, LAD | 355 ADP

Kim arrives from the KBO with a chance at being on the strong side of a second baseman platoon for the reigning champs. He displayed a contact-speed profile during his eight seasons in the KBO, posting a .304/.364/.403 slash line and 33 stolen bases per 600 PA. We’ll have to see how much the Dodgers let him run, as that will be the key driver of his fantasy value. Outside of Shohei Ohtani’s 59 stolen bases, only two other Dodgers reached double digits last year, with Mookie Betts at 16 and Teoscar Hernández at 12. Projections are split on how well Kim’s contact will translate. Steamer is on the high end with a .279 AVG, while both OOPSY and ZiPS are down at .217, though they are both at the high end of the power spectrum for Kim, projecting nine and 10 home runs for him, respectively. If you believe in him, his price is fair enough to take the shot, but temper your expectations, at least until we really get eyes on him in spring training.

Hitters

Dylan Crews | OF, WAS | 135 ADP

Crews debuted in late August and got 31 games of action to close out the season, posting just an 80 wRC+ over that stretch. We did get to see his excellent speed, as he managed 12 stolen bases in 132 PA; that’s a full season pace of 55, which is higher than I’d project this year but shows how good he can be if Washington keeps giving him the green light. Meanwhile, his three home runs would have paced out to 14 over a full season, which I think is representative of where his power is at this juncture. In this space last year, I compared him to the Miami version of Christian Yelich statistically speaking (I know they bat from different sides of the plate), and that still feels pretty good to me for the short-term, with Crews having a real chance to develop into MVP Yelich down the road. Crews has a speed edge, as Yelich only peaked at 21 stolen bases during his Miami tenure, but a lot of that is team context and the new stolen base rules. Miami was 15th in team stolen bases during Yelich’s tenure, while Washington led the league last year. With the inside track on the starting right field job and a spot in the top three of a burgeoning lineup, Crews is a very compelling pick for 2025 and might even provide better bang for you buck than teammate James Wood, who I also like a ton but who costs nearly 100 picks more at the draft table.

Jasson Domínguez | OF, NYY | 150 ADP

Domínguez exploded onto the scene with four home runs in his first eight big league games back in 2023 before Tommy John surgery cut him down in mid-September and ate up the first six weeks of the 2024 season. Then a mid-June oblique injury slowed his ascent back to the majors, costing him another six weeks. Despite impressive numbers at three minor league stops, he wouldn’t fully return to the Bronx until early September and never really got going in a scant 67 PA sample that saw a .229 BABIP play a significant role in his 84 wRC+. Thankfully that shouldn’t prevent him from making his first Opening Day roster this year. The power is advanced for his age (because he has been in our consciousness for so long, it certainly feels like he’s older, but Domínguez just turned 22), while his sharp eye (he posted a 13% walk rate in both his 1,565 PA minor league and 100 PA major league samples) will afford him consistent opportunities to steal bases even if the average lags a bit in his first full season. It’s not hard to envision a 20 home run/20 stolen base season, just don’t be surprised if it comes with a batting average in the .230-.240 range.

Matt Shaw | 3B, CHC | 217 ADP

Shaw looked great in a 38-game, three-level sample after being drafted 13th overall in 2023, then followed that up with an excellent full-season debut split between Double- and Triple-A that saw him post wRC+ totals north of 140 at both levels. He packed impressive punch in his fire hydrant stature (5-foot-9, 185 pound), clubbing 21 homers with a .203 ISO in 523 PA while also collecting 31 stolen bases. There’s some swing-and-miss risk against breaking balls, but his 12% walk rate made his 18% strikeout rate more palatable. The Cubs at least tacitly showed some confidence in the quick ascent of their college product by trading incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes to Houston, clearing the path for Shaw to possibly break camp with the club. But the early-spring signing of Justin Turner paired with the news of a minor oblique injury for Shaw has dimmed his chances of making the Opening Day roster. Still, even if he returns to Triple-A for some extra seasoning, he should be one of the first bats up for the Cubs.

Kristian Campbell | 2B, BOS | 281 ADP

Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Campbell showed out in a small sample after the 2023 draft, then took the upper minors by storm in his first full season and put himself on the cusp of the big leagues. Unlike Shaw, Campbell was a fourth round pick, which makes his fast rise even more impressive. Tabbed as Jarren Duran 2.0 in his write-up on last year’s Red Sox prospect list (he ranked no. 6 as a 45+ FV), Campbell is an infield version of Boston’s star outfielder, with a similar power-speed profile, an even more refined bat, and a much sharper eye. All that helped him surge to no. 7 on this year’s Top 100 as a 60 FV, though he’s still not no. 1 in Boston’s system because of the next guy on this list. Campbell will be one of the most watched prospects in spring training, though his fantasy outlook for the immediate future took a substantial hit with the surprise signing of Alex Bregman, who is slated to play second base for the Red Sox. That said, with only 19 games at Triple-A, the Sox needn’t rush Campbell, especially with Vaughn Grissom – the prize of the Chris Sale deal – healthy and hoping to deliver on his own hype. It has quickly become an embarrassment of riches for this organization.

Roman Anthony | OF, BOS | 304 ADP

Anthony, who doesn’t turn 21 until May, gives the Red Sox another premium power-speed prospect who could make waves early in the 2025 season. Before the Bregman signing, he was a longer shot than Campbell to make the Opening Day roster, as the outfield looked to be a bit tougher to break into, but now they both face an uphill climb. Anthony was even better at Triple-A in 2024 than he was in his 84 games at Double-A, posting a 162 wRC+ and 1.0 BB/K in 35 games to close out his massive season (18 homers, 21 stolen bases, a .291/.396/.498 line). There is a case to be made that he is a little too passive right now, as his elevated strikeout rates are built more on taking too many pitches than being overpowered and flailing out of the zone.

Even with the Bregman signing, I still like Campbell a tick more than Anthony for fantasy purposes, as I can see the Red Sox being motivated to clear up the infield logjam by way of a spring Triston Casas trade that could move Rafael Devers to first base (despite his strong desire to avoid such a fate) and Bregman back to third, opening up second. That said, center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela will need to improve his career 79 wRC+ in 660 PA to stave off Anthony all season. I will reiterate my point from the Campbell write-up: The Red Sox are in a remarkably enviable position with more talented players than there are spots to play them right now.

Colson Montgomery | SS, CHW | 505 ADP

Montgomery suffered a substantial backslide on the Top 100 list, dropping 45 spots to no. 58 after a poor debut in Triple-A that saw him manage just an 88 wRC+ and strike out 29% of the time (his FV also dipped from a 55 to a 50). He still had some pop (18 home runs in 573 PA) and took his walks (12%), but it definitely took some shine off his 2022-23 performance. Lucky for him, he’s on the worst team ever, so he still has a solid chance to break camp with the big club, as he’s already on the 40-man roster and is undeniably their best option at shortstop. Barring some substantial improvements to that swing-and-miss, we’ll likely see some on-the-job training if he is there on Opening Day, but in a full-time role, there is enough power (plus a handful of stolen bases) for Montgomery to be fantasy relevant, even if it comes with a sub-.230s AVG.

Jacob Wilson | SS, ATH | 332 ADP

If you want to counter Montgomery’s weak batting average output, perhaps you can pair him with Wilson, who is a premier contact merchant with some of the best bat-to-ball ability in all of baseball, though he may have trouble ducking the Nick Madrigal comps, as it’s a pretty empty batting average for fantasy purposes. That same outlook doesn’t stop people from drafting Luis Arraez 143 picks earlier, and there are specific team constructions where Wilson’s late-round average upside can be useful if you have properly loaded up your other counting categories. But in general, you have to be mindful that Wilson is actively hurting you in the other four fantasy categories, especially batting in the bottom third of an improved but still mediocre Athletics lineup, so despite having a better path to a full-time role than several guys ahead of him on this list, the upside just isn’t there to get overly excited at this point. Perhaps the Athletics taking up residence in a minor league park can help him squeeze out a few extra homers and chase down a double-digit total, but plan for single-digit home runs and stolen bases until we see otherwise.

Juan Brito | 2B, CLE | 575 ADP

Cleveland took a lot of heat for trading Nolan Jones for “nothing” when they had a clear outfield need and Jones was putting up a 20 home run/20 stolen base/137 wRC+ season in just 106 games back in 2023. Fast forward to today and Jones has come back to earth, posting just a 70 wRC+ in 79 games in 2024, while fantasy folks are learning more about the return Cleveland got. With Andrés Giménez and Spencer Horwitz traded away this winter, Brito is penciled in as the starting second baseman after the 23-year-old put together a solid 2024 Triple-A campaign at the dish (21 home runs, 13 stolen bases, 92 runs, 0.84 BB/K in 652 PA) while improving his defense enough to break into the Top 100, slotting in at no. 78. The fantasy market is sleeping on him during fall/winter drafts and I can definitely see his price rising as the spring draft season kicks into high gear. He’s a volume play with no carrying tool, but immediately flipping Horwitz, who they got in the Giménez deal, underscores the Guardians’ commitment to Brito. At least in the short-term, that is. There is a certain someone lurking who could take over that role if Brito struggles to acclimate to major league pitching…

Travis Bazzana | 2B, CLE | 678 ADP

Last year’s first overall pick has a good shot at reaching the majors this year despite having just 27 games in High-A to his name thus far. Bazzana likely won’t break camp without a massive spring training that forces his way into the mix, but he should get a high minors assignment and then will be just a call away from debuting. If he were a better defender, he’d have a much stronger case to be on the Opening Day roster. His do-a-bit-of-everything bat carries the profile with plus speed that should pair well with the Guardians’ penchant for running (they were fifth in stolen bases from 2022-24) and suddenly favorable park for lefties. Progressive Field was the fifth-best homer park for lefty bats (116) and the sixth best in overall park factor (104) in 2024, with only triples being suppressed (32).

There has been speculation that Bazzana could matriculate to the outfield because of his shaky second base defense and the team’s overall lack of depth out there, though we’ve seen nothing concrete from the organization on that front — plus there’s an outfield prospect coming up on this list who could render the “Bazzana to the outfield” speculation moot. Brito’s improved defense and much deeper track record of pro ball experience will likely earn him the first shot, but a no. 1 overall pick is a helluva backup plan for a reigning division winner to have at the ready during the year. Bazzana can be an impact fantasy player at either second base or in the outfield, and could wind up as a premium FAAB target this summer.

Coby Mayo | 3B, BAL | 401 ADP

Mayo made last year’s list with Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, though I acknowledged that it’d be hard for all three of them to break through given Baltimore’s crowded roster. Cowser ended up being the winner with a full season of work, while Kjerstad got multiple call-ups and amassed 114 PA, and Mayo got what I’d call more of a “sip of espresso” than the traditional “cup of coffee”, totaling just 46 PA across his two late-season stints. He continued to absolutely mash in Triple-A, though, looking even better in his second go-round, boosting his ISO 31 points to .275 and his wRC+ 8 points to 135. There still isn’t an obvious spot for Mayo this year, with Jordan Westburg blocking off third and the Ryans Mountcastle and O’Hearn running a solid first base platoon. That didn’t stop GM Mike Elias from tabbing Mayo as a “huge contributor” this season, one who will get a “strong look and every opportunity” this spring according to MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Barring something opening up this spring via injury or trade, I’m unlikely to draft Mayo outside of Draft Champions-style leagues (50-round Draft & Hold format) and instead will be ready for what should be an inevitable call-up. Mayo is a guy who could deliver a legit infusion of pop and solid run/RBI output as part of a fantastic lineup.

Jordan Lawlar | SS, ARI | 362 ADP

Lawlar fans are punching the air in frustration after a mid-February extension for incumbent shortstop Geraldo Perdomo seemed to solidify the D-backs’ commitment to the 25-year-old switch-hitter at shortstop. Of course, even before Perdomo’s extension, Lawlar was a long shot to make the roster out of camp. Injuries have limited him in two of his three pro seasons, including last year, when he played just 23 games across three levels (ACL, Double-A, Triple-A) due to thumb surgery and hamstring injuries, before an additional 27 games in the Dominican Winter League. With Perdomo entrenched at short, Eugenio Suárez locking up the hot corner and superstar Ketel Marte handling the keystone, infield spots are thin on the ground.

Of course, Marte himself has missed a month or more in three of the last four seasons, while Suárez toted a sub-.600 OPS into July last year before a blazing hot second half made everyone forget about that (.967 OPS and 24 home runs in his last 80 games). If he struggles like that again, there’s a world where Lawlar could usurp him, but that’s too big an “if” to have any real confidence in it. The team knows Lawlar needs the reps at Triple-A to make up for the lost time anyway, and they even said as much, with the early word out of camp being that he won’t be in a position to win a bench role. A summer call-up makes a lot of sense.

Chase DeLauter | OF, CLE | 410 ADP

Like Lawlar, DeLauter’s pro career has been severely hampered by injuries, with recurring foot and ankle issues slowing his progress through the minors and casting a bit of a shadow on his long-term outlook should they persist. He’s been limited to just 96 games in two years, plus a pair of trips to the Arizona Fall League that have added another 35 to the mix, good for just 574 PA as a pro. On the positive side, they’ve been good plate appearances throughout. DeLauter has hit .317/.387/.517 with 13 home runs in 406 regular season PA, with an even better .313/.417/.552 line and six home runs in 168 PA in the hitter-friendly AFL.

The bat isn’t in question, particularly the power, as DeLauter is even more primed to take advantage of Progressive Field’s lefty-friendly setup than Bazzana is. In fact, I’m not sure I’d be worried about his power output all that much in neutral or pitcher-friendly confines, as Eric gives him 60 potential power and a heart-of-the-order projection. He’s the kind of guy who could bop seven or eight spring training home runs and make himself the talk of the Cactus League en route to a spot on the Opening Day roster, but that’s a long shot dream scenario. Look for him to return to Triple-A, continue mashing taters, and eventually get the call this summer, when he could be an impact corner outfield bat for the Guardians.

Luisangel Acuña | SS, NYM | 388 ADP

Speaking of signings that induced some air-punching, Pete Alonso’s return to the Mets is sure to send Mark Vientos back to third base, putting Acuña and Brett Baty on the outside looking in. I don’t really take anything from Acuña’s electric 40 PA sample in the majors last year, because while it was fun (166 wRC+, three home runs), it’s just too small a sample to really tell us much. In an ironic twist of fate, his one plus-plus tool was absent during that magical two-week run, as he went 0-for-1 on the bases. Acuña swiped 40 bags in 131 Triple-A games, and that will be his fantasy draw when he gets his next opportunity, because he doesn’t bring much else to the table, as evidenced by his 69 wRC+ at Syracuse. Even in a more friendly stolen base universe, someone with his blazing speed will be attractive if and when a role opens up. That said, I didn’t really understand his draft price before Alonso’s return, and it’s not sinking fast enough for my liking now that Acuña is almost certainly ticketed for Triple-A to start the year.

Keep Tabs on These Guys

 

• Caleb Durbin | 2B, MIL | 388 ADP – Durbin could be the sneaky gem of the Devin Williams deal, with an excellent approach (134 walks, 111 strikeouts in 1,216 minor league PA) and blazing speed (45 SB/500 PA, 86% success rate). He even showed some chip-in pop at Triple-A (10 home runs in 406 PA) though 30 Game and 40 Raw Power ratings suggest that was probably just a hot streak. He could be Milwaukee’s superutility guy, playing consistently versus lefties and spotting in both the infield and outfield against righties.

• Deyvison De Los Santos | 1B, MIA | 404 ADP – An all-or-nothing power bat who clubbed 40 homers last year, De Los Santos likely won’t give you much else beyond the light tower power, but there is no reason he shouldn’t get a long look this spring, as the Marlins have the worst lineup in baseball. Yes, even worse than the White Sox.

• Colby Thomas | OF, ATH | 462 ADP – A theme in this de facto Honorable Mentions section is that a lot of these guys are better fantasy prospects than real life ones. A corner outfielder with an aggressive approach and some swing-and-miss issues, Thomas isn’t in the Top 100, but he smashed 31 home runs and swiped 15 bases at Double- and Triple-A, and while this Athletics lineup is improved, it’s not impenetrable. The clock is ticking for Seth Brown if his 91 wRC+ from each of the last two years doesn’t improve.

• Emmanuel Rodriguez | OF, MIN | 536 ADP – Excellent power, solid speed, and a wild approach make Rodriguez one of the more intriguing prospects in the game. His 22% walk rate in 1,016 PA leaps off the page, only to have the 30% strikeout rate smack you back to reality as you keep digging into his numbers. Don’t be fooled by last year’s .280 AVG, as it was buoyed by a .407 BABIP. Eric gave him just a 20-grade hit tool, which makes him exponentially more intriguing in OBP leagues than AVG ones.

• Dalton Rushing | C, LAD | 469 ADP – Will Smith isn’t going anywhere, but the Dodgers cleared out some of their catching logjam when they shipped Thayron Liranzo to Detroit and traded Diego Cartaya to Minnesota; that leaves just crusty ol’ Austin Barnes in Rushing’s way for the backup role. He bucks the trend of this list by being a better real life prospect than a fantasy one, but a 142 wRC+ and 26 home runs in a two-level high minors season makes clear that it isn’t just defense slotting Rushing in at no. 8 on the Top 100.

• Nick Yorke | 2B, PIT | 457 ADP – Yorke would be, like, the 47th option at second base if he were still in Boston. In Pittsburgh, he’s an intriguing hit-first prospect still holding onto some of his sheen as he enters his age-23 season. He’s the classic utility guy who you try to hide defensively to get his bat in the lineup, so think more Daniel Murphy than Ben Zobrist. The newly acquired Spencer Horwitz’s hand surgery gives Yorke an easier path to breaking camp with the big club, too.

• Christian Moore | 2B, LAA | 489 ADP – Moore will likely be racing the next guy on this list to be the first hitter from the 2024 draft to reach the majors, and I’ll give Moore the slight edge due to the roster he’s trying to crack. He went full Wyatt Langford after the draft, tearing the cover off the ball in a pair of brief stops, putting up a 184 wRC+ with six home runs in 110 PA, the bulk of which came at Double-A. Moore’s glove lags well behind the bat, but does that really matter when the Angels are slotting Yoán Moncada and Tim Anderson (at least until Zach Neto is healthy) in at third and short, respectively? Moore likely wouldn’t take either of those spots directly, but rather move Luis Rengifo to one of them so he can play second base. A fast return from Neto would likely delay Moore’s arrival, but he’s a long shot to break camp anyway, so I’m focusing on him as more of an in-season call-up.

• Nick Kurtz | 1B, ATH | 490 ADP – Kurtz’s advanced bat earned him a non-roster invite to spring training, where he hopes to show off enough power to force the team’s hand. As mentioned above, Kurtz is facing stiffer competition to break into his team’s lineup. Tyler Soderstrom is also a lefty masher with a ton of pop, and he’s currently penciled into the first base role, while Brent Rooker’s star turn has secured him the DH spot and a five-year extension worth $60 million dollars. Kurtz did get a single game in the outfield during the Arizona Fall League, and I’ll be interested to see if the Athletics explore that further, but without a clear opening right now, there’s a strong chance he’s headed for more minor league seasoning. Kurtz will be worth a look upon his arrival so be ready to pounce when he gets the call.

 

Pitchers

Roki Sasaki | RHP, LAD | 77 ADP

Another year, another big Dodgers pitcher signing from Japan. After inking Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a deal last year, they may have one-upped themselves with Sasaki. The 23-year-old righty has been so amazing in four seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines that his 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP last year was actually a substantial drop-off from his first three (1.90 ERA, 0.83 WHIP in 304 IP).

Shoulder soreness and a subsequent velo dip were the primary culprits behind Sasaki’s production falling, but he’s all systems go in spring training so far, with Dave Roberts saying he anticipates the righty will pitch in March’s Tokyo Series against the Cubs. While the Dodgers haven’t said anything about workload restrictions yet, it is still prudent to expect them to keep him from making 30-plus starts in his stateside debut. His current career-high is 129 innings from the 2022 season. I’d look for something in the 120-140 inning range this year even if he stays fully healthy, especially because Los Angeles will want to keep something in the tank for October. Sasaki has the talent to deliver a Top 25 starting pitcher season even without a full complement of innings, but a firm Top 100 overall pick is a pretty hefty price tag, so drafting him isn’t for faint of heart.

Jackson Jobe | RHP, DET | 277 ADP

The Tigers are sitting pretty right now coming off a surprise playoff run. They have a strong farm system headlined by Jobe, who checks in at no. 9 on the Top 100. He’s set to join Tarik Skubal, the reigning Cy Young winner, a returning Jack Flaherty, who was excellent with Detroit before a deadline deal to LA, the emerging Reese Olson, who has looked good in 216 big league innings, and Casey Mize, a former first overall pick who hasn’t quite lived up to the hype yet but still has upside, especially as a backend starter. A hip issue for free agent signee Alex Cobb now opens the door for Jobe to break camp in the fifth spot and he’s certainly not resting on his laurels, having added a curveball and two-seamer this offseason in an effort to boost his strikeout rate. A hamstring injury limited him to just 96 innings in 2024, but he was healthy to close out the season and made a four-inning big league debut (with 1.2 innings more in the postseason); he should be ready to push toward 120-140 innings this year. If the new pitches do foster the strikeout upside Jobe is hoping for, he will pay off handsomely on his current draft price, though be ready to pay a higher price if the whiffs start appearing in spring training and the hype train takes off.

Kumar Rocker | RHP, TEX | 276 ADP

Health remains a huge part of the electric-armed righty’s story. Rocker didn’t pitch until July as he worked his way back from a 2023 Tommy John; he threw just 48.1 innings between the minors and his three-start big league debut. Putting aside his health for a moment, his slider might actually be a 90-grade pitch on the 20-80 scale, but without improvements to his fastball, volatility will continue to be a major part of the package here. Rocker’s fastball is fast (96-98 mph), which does give it more margin for error, but that’s it. In his major league sample, the pitch netted an 83 Stuff+ grade — yes, it was in just 11.2 innings of work, but that’s in line with its performance in the minors. Despite the general negativity within this profile, there is still a lot to like with Rocker. He keeps the ball down, he misses a ton of bats, and he has displayed solid control at every minor league stop. A proper tweak or two to that fastball paired with health could unlock a breakout season, though even the rosiest outlook would still likely result in a low-triple-digit workload output.

Bubba Chandler | RHP, PIT | 287 ADP

Chandler enjoyed an impressive two-level season at Double- and Triple-A, even doing his best work at the higher level, albeit in half as many innings. In fact, only his walk rate was worse, jumping a point to 9%, while his strikeout, swinging strike, home run, and hit rates were all tangibly better. As such, so was his ERA, dropping nearly two full runs to a minuscule 1.83 in 39 innings. He’s more Jared Jones than Paul Skenes in terms of his production potential, but that’s hardly a critique. Jones broke camp with the team last year despite having even fewer pro innings than Chandler does right now, though Jones had twice as many innings at Triple-A. Chandler should get a real opportunity to grab the fifth starter spot, and if he breaks camp, the Pirates could be sort of a Mariners East team, with deep, excellent pitching doing its best to cover for a modest offense. Like Jobe, Chandler’s price will likely rise with every good Grapefruit League game he throws, so if you really like him and don’t draft until late March, be prepared for a price point inside the Top 200.

Quinn Mathews | LHP, STL | 380 ADP

Mathews brings more floor than ceiling and could leverage volume over per-inning excellence to deliver his fantasy value. He built his innings yearly at Stanford, culminating with 125 in his senior season, then showed out in a four-level pro debut (2.76 ERA/0.98 WHIP/27% K-BB) during which he amassed 143 innings. Things went off the rails a bit in his 17-inning stint at Triple-A, as his walk rate (18%) and BABIP (.405) soared — perhaps some fatigue was setting in after such a long season. Or maybe it was just a few bad starts, which any pitcher can suffer during a season. The Cardinals did quite literally nothing this offseason, meaning they’ll rely on in-house options for improvement, with Mathews getting a chance to compete for the fifth starter’s spot with veteran lefty Steven Matz, who was not good in an injury-shortened 44-inning season. While Mathews does cut a “crafty lefty” type figure, relying on a plus changeup and slider for a lot of his success, he did tangibly boost his velocity, going from 91 mph in his senior season to 93-96 last season. That prompted a Tanner Bibee profile comparison from Eric in the Top 100, as they were both drafted with a backend starter outlook only to immediately take a developmental step forward and garner a mid-rotation projection.

Andrew Painter | RHP, PHI | 374 ADP

Painter is working his way back after missing two full seasons, so temper your expectations for this year, as the Phillies will handle their star prospect carefully heading into his age-22 season. In fact, despite an invitation to spring training, it’s only to work with the big league club, as Painter isn’t going to pitch in any Grapefruit League games. He did look outstanding in a six-start run at the Arizona Fall League, displaying the same incredible stuff that had us drooling over him back in 2022. He likely won’t have an opportunity to pitch for the Phillies until at least July, meaning I probably should’ve put him in the “Keep Tabs” section, because even in the Draft & Hold format, I don’t really understand why he’s going inside the Top 400 picks. That said, he is just so damn good when healthy that even 25-30 innings down the stretch could be impactful, so I’ll likely be involved in the bidding once he arrives in the majors.

Rhett Lowder | RHP, CIN | 449 ADP

I’d be a lot more excited about Lowder if he pitched pretty much anywhere else (except Colorado, of course). Even the Cincy starters who have dominant stuff, like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, give me some pause because of that ballpark, so obviously there will be some concerns with a more strike-throwing, groundball-inducing arm in that hitter’s haven. Lowder ripped through three levels last year (3.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP/20% K-BB in 109 IP), making his big league debut in late August and sticking with the team through September. His six starts were a departure from what we had seen in the minors. His walk and fly ball rates surged and yet he didn’t allow a single home run, so he somehow managed a 1.17 ERA despite a 5.16 SIERA. He can mitigate homers in that ballpark if his 52% groundball rate from the minors shows up, and I’m more willing to bet on that than the 39% rate from his major league sample. Meanwhile, the doubling of his walk rate to 11% feels like a complete small sample fluke. Early spring elbow tightness could hamper his ability to compete for the fifth starter job, but he will be in consideration to replace the first injury or underperformance that hits the Reds early on, as it seems Graham Ashcraft will now be in the bullpen.

Keep Tabs on These Guys

 

• Joey Cantillo | LHP, CLE | 432 ADP – I’m a big fan of this young lefty, who showed flashes of his strikeout upside (27%) during a 39-inning big league debut that also saw him battle inconsistency with the long ball (1.4 HR9) and walks (9%). Cantillo isn’t currently slotted into the rotation, but it remains to be seen if the 33-year-old Ben Lively can pull another rabbit out of his hat for 29 starts, and Triston McKenzie’s ever-present health issues make him tough to rely on for a full season. There will be opportunities for Cantillo, and I prefer him to teammates Logan Allen and the newly acquired Slade Cecconi.

• Sean Burke | RHP, CHW | 407 ADP – Some bright spots are starting to poke through for the White Sox after their dismal 2024 season, as their farm system has a chance to deliver throughout the season. Burke’s swing-and-miss upside was on display all year, resulting in a 33% strikeout rate in 72 minor league innings, as well as a 29% mark in his 19-inning big league debut. They are still going to be one of the worst teams in the league and his control issues present some real WHIP risk, but there will be pockets of value for the 25-year-old and even some long shot breakout potential if his command and control take a step forward.

• Michael McGreevy | RHP, STL | 477 ADP – A control artist workhorse who has amassed 140-150 innings each of the last three seasons, McGreevy leaned on a microscopic 2% walk rate and an excellent 63% groundball rate to deliver a 1.96 ERA/0.78 WHIP combo in his 23-inning big league debut. He could essentially become the Cardinals’ Kyle Gibson replacement, making him a spot starter type for deeper formats.

• Chase Dollander | RHP, COL | 614 ADP – It’s hard to ever get excited about a Rockies pitcher from a fantasy perspective because that ballpark is undefeated in the long term. That said, Dollander is special and could carve out some streaming upside, leveraging his away games and select home games against lesser opponents. Don’t completely ignore him just because of his organization, but also realize that his value will likely be limited to the deeper leagues of the fantasy universe.

• Caden Dana | RHP, LAA | 572 ADP – Back-to-back-to-back pitchers from the White Sox, Rockies, and Angels… what, are we aiming for three wins this year? Dana had an excellent 23-start run at Double-A (2.52 ERA/0.94 WHIP/20% K-BB) before getting a look at the majors to end the season, and while he was pasted in a Texas two-step (4.1 IP/9 ER on the road against the Rangers and at home versus the Astros) after his solid debut against the Mariners (6 IP/2 ER), I’m focused on the bigger picture and believe the 21-year-old can deliver some value this summer for the Angels.

• Thomas Harrington | RHP, PIT | 576 ADP – Another floor-over-ceiling control artist, Harrington could fit snugly at the back of the Pirates rotation with all its burgeoning stars and put together some quality innings in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league. He’ll probably have a sub-25% strikeout rate in the majors, but as long as it’s not sub-20%, there’s some solid innings-eating potential here with legitimate WHIP upside for the 23-year-old.