For the previous Steamer and I reviews, I separated the two players into their own recaps, as there was simply too much to discuss for one post. However, for the motley pair of Shane Greene and Jesse Hahn, this is unfortunately not going to be a problem. You see, both of them saw their seasons cut short by injury and one of them was so bad that including his name as part of the title of an article will do little to motivate potential readers from clicking. So, combined they are.

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Here at RotoGraphs, we’re deep into the heart of player profile season. Right now, we’re reviewing outfielders. Part of our analysis is geared towards our expectations for next season. Often, you’ll see us juxtapose our own impressions with Steamer’s projections.

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The last of the hitter Steamer and I reviews is upon us, as I recap how my Pod Projection compared to Steamer’s preseason forecast, and how both systems performed against what actually transpired. I was significantly more bullish about A.J. Pollock’s 2015 prospects than Steamer was. In fact, out of all full-time players, the difference between the two Pollock forecasts was the greatest.

Who knew Pollock would go on to finish as the second most valuable outfielder and overall hitter?!

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For our third Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for George Springer in his sophomore season. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.

Heading into 2014, Springer ranked as one of the top prospects in baseball and didn’t disappoint upon his arrival to Houston. He did exactly what his minor league record suggested he might — strike out a lot, supplement those swings and misses with a strong walk rate, and display immense power. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by a quadriceps injury, but naturally, expectations were high for 2015.

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The Steamer and I reviews continue this week, which pits a player’s preseason Pod Projection against his Steamer projection. Today, I’ll review 2014 breakout Corey Dickerson, who unfortunately saw his plate appearance total cut in half due to various injuries. I was far more bullish on his prospects than Steamer was.

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For our second Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for rookie Yasmany Tomas. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.

As a Cuban rookie with no minor league data to work with and limited statistics to analyze from his work in Cuba, Tomas was a challenge to forecast. Essentially, everyone was really just taking an educated guess and it was more like a 3rd grade education than grad school level.

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Back in February, I compared preseason projections between reputed projection system Steamer to those submitted by FanGraphs readers, dubbed “FANS.” The concept was simple: identify National League outfielders whose Steamer and FANS projections varied wildly and predict a “winning” projection. (In the same vein, Community poster Bobby Mueller compiled some nice summary statistics.)

Alas, I needlessly task myself with determining who fared better: the Depth Charts — which are Steamer and other reputable projection system ZiPS, with playing time allocated by FanGraphs staff — versus the fans.

Because the present author, whose analytic capacity is debatable but authorship of this piece is absolute, retains sole proprietorship of quasi-analysis that has a moderate to high probability of spiraling out of control, he has chosen three statistics with which to compare qualified major league hitters: weighted on-base average (wOBA), an offensive rate statistic (not that it offends anyone, per se, but, well, you know); Fielding (Fld), a defensive statistic, probably; and wins above replacement (WAR), an overall performance metric.

Yours truly has elected to discuss only the most egregious differences in projections and declare winners between them accordingly. Granted three nominees within three categories, an outcome in which a winner is not declared is highly improbable. Alas, a true, rightful and, above all, 100-percent authoritative champion may very well be crowned in due time. So, who will it be: the wisdom of the masses, or the wisdom of two computers?

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Well, my pain may be your gain. For a future Hardball Times article I am working on, I needed to create some historic pitcher groundball rate (GB%) projections. I decided to go ahead and run the values for 2016 and make them publicly available.

Here is the basic background behind creating the projections.

• I used a three-year weighting of .7 for 2015, .2 for 2014 and .1 for 2013.
• The data was regressed some to a league average rate.
• I didn’t use any aging factors.
• The final r-squared from the projection to actual results is around .67.

With that small amount of background information, here are the projections.

It’s never too early to prepare for next season, just as you can never have too many articles about the mechanics of projection systems. Well, ok, the second part of that statement is a lie, but it has been awhile since we’ve talked about how we use projection systems.

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It’s second base week on RotoGraphs and that gives me the opportunity to perform the first review of my 2015 Pod Projection breakdowns. Anthony Rendon enjoyed a breakout year in both real and fantasy baseball in 2014 and given his previous top prospect pedigree, was then highly valued heading into this season. At the time of my Pod Projection, Rendon was being drafted 13th overall in NFBC leagues. Unfortunately, a knee injury that was supposed to only keep him out for a week or two to begin the season dragged on and on. He didn’t make his 2015 debut until early June and then missed another month with a quad strain. Ultimately, he finished ranked 35th in value…among just the second basemen!

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