Steamer and I: Zack Greinke & James Shields

The Steamer and I series concludes as I finish with the last starting pitcher comparisons. Today, I check in on two pitchers of whom the Steamer projections are significantly more optimistic than my Pod Projections.

As per SIERA, Zack Greinke is coming off the second best skills of his career, driven in part by a rebound in his slider usage. He’s managed to post sub-3.00 ERAs for two straight seasons now, which has made him the 10th pitcher off the board on average in NFBC drafts. James Shields hit the free agent jackpot by signing with a National League team and remaining in a pitcher friendly home park. He, too, is loved by drafters, who are nabbing him 22nd among starters in NFBC. Let’s see why Steamer and I disagree on these two fine lads.

Zack Greinke

System	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	BABIP	LOB%
2014	202.1	2.71	1.15	9.2	1.9	0.85	25.2%	5.2%	0.311	79.7%
Pod	200.0	3.36	1.20	8.5	2.3	0.81	23.0%	6.2%	0.305	73.9%
Steamer	199.0	3.03	1.12	8.5	2.1	0.82	23.1%	5.7%	0.284	75.1%

So let’s begin with where we agree. Steamer and I are on the same page with regards to Greinke’s strikeout and home run rates. We differ marginally on his walk rate. It’s similar and there’s certainly not a large enough gap to provide the full explanation, but there’s our first hint. Greinke has only posted a walk rate of 5.7% or better three times during his entire career. Are we to bet it’s going to happen a fourth time at age 31?

He also doesn’t exactly throw a high enough rate of strikes to be displaying such dazzling control. Or so it seems. But, he has actually outperformed his xBB% every year I calculated it for going back to 2008. So he’s doing something not captured by the equation, which is why my actual walk rate projection is much lower than his projected xBB% of 7.7%. Still, I couldn’t possibly project another sub-6.0% walk rate.

Aside from the walk rate, the real discrepancy lies with our projected BABIP marks. And in fact, if I lower my projection to the same mark as Steamer, his ERA drops all the way down to 3.03, exactly what Steamer projects! So here’s the deal — Greinke sports a career .305 BABIP, has struggled with line drives for the majority of his career (normally line drives are fickle, but when one allows an above average mark over 1,872 career innings, it clearly means something) and has posted a BABIP mark of at least .303 in eight of his 10 full seasons.

We project the Dodgers to trot out a strong defensive unit, something that didn’t happen last year judging by UZR. Yet, the Dodgers pitching staff posted a .292 aggregate BABIP, and Greinke still managed to post an inflated .311 mark. It doesn’t matter who’s playing behind you when you allow line drives 23% of the time. I could see an argument for projecting a .300 mark given the team’s improved defense, but Steamer’s .284 projection appears far too low. That BABIP gap alone is driving the LOB% difference, so it’s not a separate explanation.

I had been asked why my Greinke ranking seemed pessimistic several times. I hope you enjoyed your backstage tour!

James Shields

System	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	BABIP	LOB%
2014	227.0	3.21	1.18	7.1	1.7	0.91	19.2%	4.7%	0.295	74.6%
Pod	220.0	3.67	1.24	7.7	2.3	0.96	20.3%	6.2%	0.300	73.0%
Steamer	210.0	3.47	1.19	8.2	2.2	0.84	21.9%	5.7%	0.296	72.2%

Before we begin, it’s worth noting that of the three projections on Shields’ player page, Steamer’s is most pessimistic, and yet, I’m even more bearish than that! So let’s look at where we agree…nowhere! It’s rather remarkable that we essentially argue at every point, and yet our ERA projection is only off by 0.20, which in the grand scheme of a full season, is like an extra squib here and bloop there. It’s nothing. We essentially both agree that Shields is a pretty good pitcher, but surely not elite or at ace level.

Let’s start with the strikeout rate. Shields posted his lowest mark since 2009 as his SwStk% dropped to its lowest level since 2010. His once lethal changeup is the primary culprit, as the pitch generated its lowest SwStk% of Shields’ career. He had previously posted SwStk% above 20% with the pitch in five of his seven seasons, but it dropped to 16.3% last year, which is just marginally better than average and not very Shields-like. Steamer is likely factoring in both a rebound in strikeout rate, plus the boost from the move to the National League. I factored in the move to the National League, but that’s really all. At age 33, there’s less certainty of a strikeout rate rebound excluding the assumed jump from facing the pitcher.

Steamer and I differ on walk rate as well, and it’s the same gap we found above with Greinke. Just like Greinke, Shields has also beaten his xBB%, but unlike the former, Shields has only done so a majority of his seasons, not every one of them. Still, his projected xBB% was above what I ultimately projected his walk rate to be. I consider 2014 to be an outlier and my walk rate projection fits well with his 2011-2013 years.

The next metric we find disagreement on is the home run rate. Even if I increase my strikeout rate projection to that of Steamer’s, it doesn’t fully explain our HR/9 gap. Kauffman Stadium and Petco Park sport nearly identical home run park factors, so Shields shouldn’t experience any change from the park switch. But he owns a career 11.2% HR/FB rate, which can’t be ignored. So accounting for the home run suppressing ways of Petco, I projected an improved 10% HR/FB rate. Steamer appears more optimistic.

Last, we end on another BABIP note. While Shields’ BABIP has bounced around a bit, like it does for most pitchers, his career mark sits right near the current league average. Given a neutral defense, it would have been reasonable to project another league average BABIP of .295, especially given his league average batted ball profile. BUT! The Padres offseason transaction ledger made it clear that defense wasn’t a priority, but rather offensive firepower. That’s well and good, but it’s not going to make their pitchers happy who are hoping those fielders are going to convert their balls in play into outs. Our Depth Charts project a putrid -25.4 fielding value for the Padres, which is going to lead to some bloated BABIP marks.

What’s really strange is that Steamer is more bullish on Shields’ strikeout, walk and home run rates, as well as BABIP, yet is projecting a lower LOB%!

So which side do you lean toward, mine or Steamer, for these two veteran starting pitchers?