It’s time for another Pod Projection review and today it’s new top 10 starter Jacob deGrom. After a dominating performance during his 2014 rookie campaign that essentially came out of nowhere, we all wondered how much regression he would experience in 2015. Instead, he laughed at the notion of regression and took his performance to further heights, earning more than $24 and finishing as the ninth most valuable starter. Refresh your memory by reviewing my initial Pod Projection post.

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My fellow RotoGraphs writers and I have been working through our 2016 player evaluations. I was tasked with the declining J.J. Hardy. I noticed that two of his core hitting traits, the ability to make contact and pull the ball, had degraded from 2013 to 2014. While Hardy saw an overall decline in his skills when these two skills declined, I wanted to see it was common among other players. I was able to find that decline in these two areas is a sign of a player on a fast decline.

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It’s Holiday time. Here is my Holiday present to you: 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings and $ Values using Steamer Projections and NFBC’s Format: (2)c,1b,2b,3b,ss,ci,mi,(5)of,u,(9)p and (17)bench spots.

For review, I’ll discuss the approach after the rankings, but you can check out Zach’s FVARz series of posts as well. Zach and I do a few things differently, but I use this template over others, such as SGP because I like how hands-on it allows you to be when ranking your projections. It allows for both pragmatism (drafting a certain number of players within a specific position for your league format) and objectivity (focusing on the Z-Sum/5×5 value of each player). I will describe below:

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Today I continue reviewing my preseason posts and this time I will bravely recap how my Pod Projection fared against the Steamer projection for Zack Greinke. As we are all well aware, Greinke just so happened to lead all Major League starters in ERA, en route to a second place finish in the Cy Young voting. Sadly, Greinke wiggled his way into a Steamer and I post because Steamer was significantly more optimistic about his performance than Pod was. I guess we know how this is going to go…

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We finally move along to our first starting pitcher Pod Projection recap of the offseason. I will start with final 10 starts of the 2014 season breakout Carlos Carrasco, who finally made good on all the hype I sounded on him. Refresh your memory of my original projection post.

Naturally after those scintillating set of starts to end the season, Carrasco shot up preseason ranking lists heading into 2015. And he didn’t disappoint, finishing 15th among starters in value, earning about $16.

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Valuing injured pitchers who plan on returning at a later date can be tough to do correctly. Yu Darvish an example of such a pitcher. After having Tommy John surgery in mid-March this past season, Darvish should return some point after mid-May (14-month rehab is the norm now). An owner can expect above replacement level from Darvish, but for a couple months, a lesser pitcher will be used. I will step through the process of valuing Darvish by combining his value with a replacement level pitcher.

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For the previous Steamer and I reviews, I separated the two players into their own recaps, as there was simply too much to discuss for one post. However, for the motley pair of Shane Greene and Jesse Hahn, this is unfortunately not going to be a problem. You see, both of them saw their seasons cut short by injury and one of them was so bad that including his name as part of the title of an article will do little to motivate potential readers from clicking. So, combined they are.

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Here at RotoGraphs, we’re deep into the heart of player profile season. Right now, we’re reviewing outfielders. Part of our analysis is geared towards our expectations for next season. Often, you’ll see us juxtapose our own impressions with Steamer’s projections.

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The last of the hitter Steamer and I reviews is upon us, as I recap how my Pod Projection compared to Steamer’s preseason forecast, and how both systems performed against what actually transpired. I was significantly more bullish about A.J. Pollock’s 2015 prospects than Steamer was. In fact, out of all full-time players, the difference between the two Pollock forecasts was the greatest.

Who knew Pollock would go on to finish as the second most valuable outfielder and overall hitter?!

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For our third Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for George Springer in his sophomore season. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.

Heading into 2014, Springer ranked as one of the top prospects in baseball and didn’t disappoint upon his arrival to Houston. He did exactly what his minor league record suggested he might — strike out a lot, supplement those swings and misses with a strong walk rate, and display immense power. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by a quadriceps injury, but naturally, expectations were high for 2015.

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