Playing Time Estimates (2/15/16)
A couple of weeks ago, I examined some players whose playing times seemed to be undecided. Today I am going to continue looking at somw more (full list of players in a spreadsheet).
When will Prince Fielder get 1B eligibility?
For owners in leagues with 18 or less games to gain eligibility, you have nothing to worry about this season. Now, for leagues with 20 game eligibility issues, most have a 10 game in season requirement.
Looking at his Fielders 2015 1B usage, half of his 18 1B games were in April. After then, it was just over 1 per month and of those nine games, seven were interleague contests. With Mitch Moreland handling normal 1B duties again, I see it being tough for Fielder to get a ton of time at 1B without a Moreland injury. He will need to play in all interleague games and here is when those games happen for the Rangers in 2016.
Apr: 0
May: 0
Jun: 3
July 3
Aug: 4
Sep: 0
With an optimistic two extra games a month at 1B, he won’t be eligible until July if he starts all interleague games. It could be longer with the eligibility pushed into late August.
I think I would only consider him a DH for the season and if he gets 1B eligibility, bonus.
David Wright will max out playing only 130 games. Probably closer to 112 games.
The 130 games was a recent statement from the Mets:
“We’re going to make sure that he’s not overworked,” Alderson told the paper. “So it’s important for us to find somebody who can play 30 games or so at third base when he’s not in there. But I think we have to be realistic, and not expect that he’s going to be an absolute everyday [player] out there playing 150 or 155 games. That’s not going to happen.”
Anderson also said that Wright likely would sit against a right-handed pitcher with Neil Walker or Asdrubal Cabrera, both switch-hitters, shifting to third. Wilmer Flores also is an option.
Going into the season, I would expect Wright to miss at least a month with injuries which puts him at 135 games. Now with him sitting out every 5th game (135/162= 83%, close enough to 80% played), he is in the 108 (135*.83) games played range. I think the 112 games is the most likely outcome with the downside of an entire missed season.
The rest of this article will concentrate on rookies. These are the toughest to pin down and I used a Twitter poll on each to start off and set the estimate.
A.J. Reed (Astros 1B): Projected near 106 games
I think this job is Reed’s once Jon Singleton starts to fail. I think the Astros will give Singleton a month to prove himself and monitor Reed. When May 1st hits, the Astros will start looking at the pair. I don’t think it is a guarantee for Reed to get called up. It could be a half a season (which is projected), but maybe longer. I see several scenarios playing out with the All-Star Game being a good guess.
Jose Peraza (Red Util IF): Projected near 88 games
I think a mid-season estimate seems fair with the Reds infield set for the season. If somehow Phillips allows himself to be traded, Peraza will immediately be a starter.
Joey Gallo (Rangers 3B/OF): Projected near 104 games
The Rangers are set with Beltre at 3B, Fielder at DH and Choo and Hamilton in the corner outfield. Hamilton looks to be the weak link of the three. I could see the Rangers give Hamilton two to three months to produce. Also, Fielder and Beltre are injury prone. The 104 games seems OK. I have a tough time getting a read on this situation.
Orlando Arcia (Brewers SS/IF): Projected near 86 games (my guess is closer to 120)
I think this is on the low side, by at least 20 games. The Brewers have Jonathan Villar as their shortstop. Villar is not near Arcia’s ability and I expect Villar to be the Brewers utility infielder. I see Arcia up after he gains another year of eligibility after the first couple weeks of the season or after the Super-2 date around June 1st. I think his number is closer to the 110 to 150 game range. I will disagree with my followers and bump up his playing time some.
Lucas Giolito (Nationals SP): Projected 75 innings pitched
The Nationals just have a good starting pitching staff which I think will keep his innings near this range. Expectations should be limited here
Julio Urias (Dodgers SP): Projected 55 innings pitched (my guess is closer to 30)
This seems on the high side for me. The Dodgers have what seems to 50+ starting pitchers which will all have to fail or get injured first for Urias to get a chance. I am also worried he may end up in the Dodgers’ bullpen at the season’s end. I am probably thinking 30 innings here.
Jose Berrios (Twins SP): Projected 106 innings pitched
I think the 106 innings is a reasonable guess, but his total won’t be near it. I think it will way over or under. On one hand, the Twins need all the help they can get and he would become the staff ace for the season. On the other hand, the Twins seem to never promote anyone and could way for him to become perfect in the minors. I am hoping for the higher total, but could understand if he doesn’t reach it.
Tyler Glasnow (Pirates SP): Projected at 85 innings pitched
Truthfully, I can’t get any read on his promotion. The 85 innings seems OK and I will look for more information as the season gets closer.
Blake Snell (Rays SP): Projected at 82 innings pitched
Right now he is tagged as probably the 6th starter in Tampa. He will get his time with Alex Cobb out (TJS) and with all pitchers having elevated injury risks. I may see him a bit higher, but understand the 82 inning value.
……….
Let me know why you agree or not on the estimates and I will keep doing these are the season gets closer. Additionally, let me know if you have any players you want estimates on.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I’d love to see estimates Trever Story, if he even makes it. Also of interest is Max Kepler.
The small and early returns on Gallo in LF were promising (+2 DRS). That improves his chances of sticking.
Anyone else feel like the hype on A.J. Reed is too soon? I feel like Tyler White is being overlooked. He’s got better K%/BB%/AVG/OBP than Reed over many more plate appearances in minor league ball. I realize Reed has the power but White is no slouch in that department either. Haven’t looked how they compare on defense, admittedly…
Not to mention everyone shoveling dirt on the incumbent Jon Singleton.
Agreed. Singleton has his flaws, but he is young and has impressive skills. Unwise to give up on a hitter with that kind of power, especially when he draws so many walks.
And, most importantly, White has been invited to Spring Training. I understand that Reed looks like a burgeoning superstar, but the Astros love White; he has hit at every level. It would make a lot of sense for the Stro’s to select White over Reed in order to trade him. Do not overlook White. Fantasy sites are definitely overlooking White, and it amazes me (especially after he got the invite to spring training). Let the games begin.
How about Red Sox Travis Shaw?
I could see Shaw grabbing some 3B duties from time to time.
If Hanley is a disaster afield, I imagine the Red Socks will be less patient this year.
I’d love to see an estimate for Javier Baez if you could. Thank you in advance!
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers left Arcia in AAA all year. Like he would have to be doing ridiculously well to basically be forced to bring him up for a team in the Brewers position. Bringing him up really just wastes service time and potentially takes AB away from prove it players
I completely agree. I keep hearing people predicting that Arcia will be up before the All-Star break, and I just don’t see why. They are going nowhere this year. I don’t see why they would call him up unless, like you said, he is hitting so well that it becomes a public relations problem if they don’t call him up.
What do you think is going to happen in Oakland with 1B/DH/corner OF? I have a $1 Canha that I could keep in a fairly deep league but he’d eat up an active roster spot.
“Also, Fielder and Beltre are injury prone.”
Prince Fielder’s PA totals for the last 10 years:
648
681
694
719
714
692
690
712
178
693
We’re reeeeally starting to throw around the ‘injury-prone’ label these days, huh?
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Beltre has been consistently healthy too.
That 37 year old mark for Beltre though….
Id bet that all small market teams who aren’t contending leave their guys down til past super-2 deadline. And Pirates too with Glasnow and Hansen.
How about Tim Anderson in CHI?
The Pirates normally don’t call up their prospects until June. Use Gerrit Cole to approximate when Glasnow will get the call. Both followed similar paths through the minors. Expect Glasnow to make his debut in mid-June, just like Cole did.