With the season underway, owners need to start adjusting some player’s fantasy value. Some of the tweaks can be from talent changes (e.g. increase in talent) or role (e.g. moving for a long reliever to starter). Three players, Kenley Jansen, Trea Turner, and Luke Weaver, are three such players on the move.
This past weekend I was again honored to be asked to participate in the 15-team Tout Wars auction held bright and early on Saturday morning at Staten Island’s Richmond County Ballpark. After a short ferry ride, I caught up with old friends and then auction began. Like last year, it rolled at a fast pace and ended in about four hours later. While my final team’s roster doesn’t resemble any team I’ve previously rostered, it has a nice chance to compete.
Prep
The biggest decision I made when constructing this team happened months ago when I looked back at my 2017 fantasy teams and found my pitching way outperforming my hitting.
To help offset this final imbalance, I decided to go with a 70%/30% hitter/pitcher split. Over the past few seasons, this league’s split has been 67.8%/32.2%. The difference works out to a $6 difference. I am not married to reaching this exact mix at the auction but it gives me a general guideline to follow. It had a side effect I didn’t fully understand but the anomaly ended up driving my auction.
What’s up, FanGraphs! My name is Derek Carty. If you’ve been into sabermetrics long enough, perhaps you recognize me from my time managing the fantasy sections for Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times a while back. The past half-decade or so I’ve been focused solely on daily fantasy sports, most notably with ESPN.com, Baseball Tonight, RotoGrinders, and on Twitter (@DerekCarty). I’m so pumped to be announcing today that I’m getting back involved publicly on the sabermetric side (privately, I never left!) by integrating my projection system, THE BAT, into the offerings here at FanGraphs!
This means we’re actually getting close to official baseball, right? It’s bold prediction season and you know the drill (with an Ottoneu context), so let’s get started.
1. Freddie Freeman achieves 8.0 WAR
The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).
2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani
Tommy Pham
Last week and earlier this week, I highlighted a group of hitters who my Pod Projections projected stolen base upside and stolen base downside compared to Steamer projections. Until I performed the comparison, I had no idea I was so bearish on steals, relative to both Steamer and to 2017.
Chasing Saves frustrates many owners as injuries and poor performance piles up. Trying to accumulate Saves can be a tiring game with roster spots and FAAB wasted on arms who only keep their job for a week or two while piling up a 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Last pre-season, I went through and examined reliever talent and how likely they were they were to keep their job. It’s time to give the 2018 bullpen arms their chances to make it a full season.
The LABR only league auctions are a fantastic way to start off the fantasy season (AL and NL results). I’m co-captaining one of the AL-only teams with Eno Sarris who is making one last attempt for a championship. Here are some takeaways from the weekend.
For a quick rundown of the rules.
In a few days, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational will begin drafting. The invitational is the combination of 13 different 15-team leagues full of the industry’s best and brightest (and Howard Bender). We’ve been given our draft positions and I got the third pick. After Arizona installed the humidor and dinged Goldschmidt’s value, the pick has no easy options. Instead of focusing on the first-round pick, I’m going to dive into my second and third round options to hopefully make a better choice with the first one.
With any draft or auction in which my draft pick is known, I plan my first two to three picks. Beyond that point, the variables increase, plan is out the window, and owners need to target values and needs.
The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).
2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani