Where Has Their Power Gone?
In my chat last night, I got several questions on Joey Votto and his power loss. I decided I investigate the drop along with several other regulars who currently have an isolated power (ISO) less than their projected Steam projections.
To get a list of hitters, I took the hitter with a least 150 PA this season and compared their projected and actual ISO’s. Here the top 20.
| Name | Age | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Davis | 32 | .249 | .079 | .170 |
| Kole Calhoun | 30 | .171 | .035 | .137 |
| Rougned Odor | 24 | .224 | .088 | .135 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 28 | .367 | .244 | .123 |
| Jay Bruce | 31 | .225 | .109 | .115 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 27 | .227 | .113 | .114 |
| Neil Walker | 32 | .197 | .088 | .109 |
| Domingo Santana | 25 | .211 | .107 | .104 |
| Joey Votto | 34 | .225 | .134 | .092 |
| Addison Russell | 24 | .192 | .102 | .090 |
| Michael Conforto | 25 | .231 | .144 | .087 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | 34 | .182 | .101 | .081 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 28 | .187 | .110 | .076 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 25 | .268 | .191 | .076 |
| Orlando Arcia | 23 | .143 | .067 | .076 |
| Adrian Beltre | 39 | .184 | .109 | .076 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 28 | .261 | .187 | .074 |
| Jose Pirela | 28 | .151 | .078 | .073 |
| Kendrys Morales | 35 | .210 | .138 | .073 |
| Josh Donaldson | 32 | .261 | .190 | .072 |
When analyzing these players, the first item I look for is an injury (see Josh Donaldson). The next item is to compare their StatCast data, exit velocity, launch angle, and distance to see if the hitter has changed their approach (i.e. launch angle) or are weaker.
While I won’t cover all the players listed, here are my thoughts on some:
Chris Davis
In my opinion, Davis was a buy-low option coming into last season because he played through a hand injury in 2016. Since that injury, he’s been useless as a fantasy option. He’s either aging quickly into uselessness or hiding a major injury.
Right now, there is nothing positive to point to. A 0.23 BB/K is his lowest since 2012. His 46% GB% is a career high. Hard hit rate (34%) is the lowest since 2011. There is nothing positive with his batting profile, no power or plate discipline, to make him a fantasy asset. The only thing keeping him on the field right now is the ~$100M he is owed on his contract.
What a mess. Everything points to him hiding an injury and at least he’s finally on the DL for an oblique.
A power hitter is going to struggle when they put the ball on the ground 46% of the time.
The more I dive into his profile, I think his 2018 production is in line with his historical outputs, especially home runs. Here are his HR/FB% since 2014.
Season: HR/FB%
2014: 17%
2015: 9%
2016: 14%
2017: 23%
2018: 10%
Career: 15%
A 10% HR/FB% is not an outlier consider his 15% career value. It’s just a stark contrast to the 23% mark from last season.
One issue which does worry me is his 50% GB%. That’s way too high for a power hitter.
While a surplus of Brewer outfielders has cut into his playing time, he’s not helped his cause while playing by hitting only 3 HR in 200 PA. Like with several of the other hitters I wrote about, he has a 50% GB%. He’s hitting hard grounders and with his speed, he has a spiffy .371 BABIP (.357 on career). Otherwise, I can’t find a smoking gun for his power outage.
The only part of Votto’s game which is suffering is his power. In previous seasons, his HR/FB% was near 20%. Now, it is hovering around 11%. After examining his StatCast data, the only item which really stood out is his Barrell rate dropping from being consistently over 6% to under 4%.
Finding a reason behind Votto’s struggles is easy. His back is giving him issues. The first time his back pain came to light was when he left a game on May 14th.
Votto left the game with lower back tightness.
— Reds Media Relations (@RedsPR) May 15, 2018
He missed some more time after this game as he tried to heal.
I think his back had been a problem up to that point and continues to be. His ISO continues to slide.
Month: ISO
Apr: .140
May: .130
Jun: .125
It will be interesting to see if and when his power returns.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Why was Chris Davis projected for such a high ISO? He hasn’t surpassed that projection since 2015, and only has 3 times in his 10 year career (including year 1 – so really could say 2 times in the last 9 years).
Baltimore should have stood firm when they pulled the contract they offered him when he was a free agent since he was trying to use it as leverage for a better deal. I *think* most people thought he already hit his ceiling.
Giancarlo had essentially the same GB rate last year. Do you think something else has changed? Some on this site have mentioned he is pulling less. Are pitchers in the AL approaching him differently?
What’s up with Bruce?
Kendrys’s statcast numbers look promising. Any hope for a strong finish?
Stanton has the same profile and is putting up the same numbers at the same pace as last year. He had that crazy hot summer that may not be replicated but I think the reason why he’s on this list is because the projections were absolutely insane for him this preseason
Bruce was reportedly dealing with plantar fasciitis in April. I haven’t seen more recent reports but if he’s still got pain or discomfort in his lower half that it could certainly explain the power outage.
According to some stats at Baseball Savant, Stanton’s struggling a lot more with up an in than last year. I doubt that’s been enough to significantly affect his stat line, but it could be one of multiple contributors.
What about Odor?
He stinks
swings at everything.
Yup. He’s got a wRC+ of 60 over his last 802 PA.
Baseball Savant thinks Votto has been all kinds of unlucky. His xSLG is .556 vs an actual .444 and only 21 points of that is his xBA v actual BA. Prior years show no such discrepancy so he is unlike some of the lumbering sluggers who you’d expect to underperform.
Is he being shifted? His line drive rate is insanely high, easily leading the league. If those line drives are going right to a shifted 2B playing rover, that could explain some of it.
He is being shifted a bit more this year but not much different than 2016 when he put up a .985 OPS. Moreover, Statcast says he has put up a .453 wOBA against the shift so it isn’t shifting. As a Votto owner I have pored over the numbers quite a bit the last few weeks and other than trading in some fly balls for line drives*, his numbers are just not that different from what he has done the last 3 years. I would expect a drop in HR as a result but he should be banging out a lot more 2B and 3B then because he’s hitting the ball as well as ever.
* and even LD v FB isn’t that clear. His FG page shows him with lower FB and higher LD, but his Statcast page says even that isn’t all that different.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joey-votto-458015?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
Personally, I’m going with unlucky myself.
Domingo Santana mystifies me: he’s always skewed toward a GB/LD heavy batted ball mix and has the plus wheels to make that profile yield a plus babip however he’s also always posted a 25+% HR/FB mark to bolster his production on those rare air balls.
Was that blend of skills a mirage for the ~900 PA he sustained them for prior to this season? It’s hard to believe that could be the case but the Brewers seem tired of waiting to see and have at least currently better options. Rough case of better fantasy than real life player here….
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I wholeheartedly disagree.
Period
Any silver lining for Rhys?
He still hits a lot of flyballs? For some reason his hard hit rate is down big time from last season. If he had last season’s hard hit rate I’m sure more of those flyballs would be homeruns. Would have to wonder of there is a hidden injury or change in swing.
Would you say that injuries are the main cause of Beltre’s decline in ISO?
he’s only played 37 games. hard to dig too deep into such a small sampling. if he hit 5 homers next week, his iso, along with this other numbers, would look a lot different.
Don’t ever doubt Beltre even though he is approaching 40. EVERY YEAR I say this is the year he finally succumbs to age and every year he continues to hit. At the end of the year he will be at .290/.350/.500. Although the K% is creeping a bit.
Chris Davis should not be on anyones roster no matter how deep. hes the worst player in histroy
Bill Bergen has something to say about that. It seems he put up -16 WAR over his career (11 years, none positive), which appears to be the lowest career WAR on Fangraphs.
If seasons are more your thing, then Jim Levey “wins” with -4 WAR in one season.
I don’t recommend either of them for your team.
Anything on Kris Bryant? He is a punch and judy hitter now. If you look up his statcast data, he is somehow below average on virtually everything and his only saving grace is OBP/ Runs
Doesn’t put up elite EV, Elite Barrels, Elite anything for that matter. 119th out of 237 qualifying hitters in Max EV, 172 out of 237 qualified hitters in average EV, 82nd out of 237 in max distance, 149th out of 237 in hard hit percentage.
Guy has 37 home runs over his last 1050+ at bats. Think how crazy that is.
To be fair, Ozuna has lately turned the power back on somewhat. I imagine he’ll be back to at least his career 15% HR/FB rate by the end of the season.