Actionable Adjustments Inspired by First-Half Breakouts

We are all learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. -Charlie Munger

It’s time to see if I need to adjust my fantasy baseball beliefs by analyzing the first half busts and breakout lists. While it’s great to acknowledge these players, owners need to sit down and figure out why everyone missed on them. By hitting on one or two of these breakouts, a team could be competing for the top spot. Here are the groups and how to identify the breakout next preseason.

For the player situations I analyzed, I’m used Paul Sporer’s First Half All Value Stars and Fantasy Team for inspiration. I looked for actionable traits or tells which can be used next season.

Unknown Playing Time

Jesus Aguilar

Everyone understood coming into this season that the Brewers playing time situation was going to be a mess, so not owning Aguilar is understandable. He was to be in a platoon with Domingo Santana with middling projections. The deal with Aguilar, he really didn’t have a horrible platton split. It was .372 wOBA vs .338 wOBA in 2017. It’s .444 vs .405 this season.

Without the prospect and star pedigree as some other Brewers, he dropped in drafts and auctions. Thinking about it, he should be the bat owners in 15 to 20-team should be targeting pre-season. since they are on the flat part of the talent curve.

In shallower leagues, owners should be taking chances on full-time players. In deeper leagues with no waiver wire, it’s tough to roster a player who may eventually give them a zero in production.

There is a nice balance in medium-sized leagues. As a reserve pick, he’s not being counted to immediately provide production. On the other hand, the player’s real-life team will quickly determine who is going to play and where. Within a couple weeks to a month, the roles are known and the at platoon risk player will be dropped or started. The time frame while not perfect is better than the call-up times for some top prospects.

Others: Matt Kemp

I Didn’t Believe

Scooter Gennett

At the bend of Tout Wars auction, Gennett was my highest projected hitter, I just passed on him, and he went for $1. While I was digging for some steals, it was a dumb move on my part. I needed to believe my projections. And why not. He should have been a nice middle-infield power play since he’s averaged 20 home runs in ~500 PA the previous two seasons.

I still a little mad at myself for letting him go as my teams thrive off of being full of boring value picks. I need to go even more boring.

Others: Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp

Injuries

Michael Brantley

I can completely understand Brantley’s 240 ADP. Owners wanted a share but didn’t want to rely on him. While I didn’t think Brantley would be this good, he had top-50 hitter upside. I’m considering taking chances on these injury risks (see 2019 Miguel Cabrera) around pick 200. The talent curve is still flat at this point so drop off to his possible replacement would not be much.

Also, I should probably do some video scouting of these injury risks pre-season. I was all over Miggy as he was the top player with the most injury influenced production variation. I need to move further down the talent spectrum to get takes on other hitters.

Others: Matt Kemp

Batting Average Variations

Trevor Story

Some high strikeout hitters will always make these lists. With fewer balls in play, their batting average will fluctuate a ton. With every player breaking out, there are the Chris Davis’s and Miguel Sano’s who’ve been benched.

The nice aspect of Baez and Story hitting for a better average is their additional stolen base opportunities which both have used to their advantage. Having some element of speed doesn’t make them hit better like with Jonathan Villar and Rougned Odor. It’s just a little more upside.

The only way I can see myself betting for the extra stolen bases is in a draft. If I have the choice between two high batting average variance hitters, I’ll take the one with more speed. It has to be a near perfect storm to occur but I can’t see another way to take advantage.

Others: Scooter Gennett, Matt Kemp, Javier Baez