Drafting the Draft: Fantasy Hitters

by
June 8, 2018

The MLB Draft is unique in that it happens during the season. For the football and basketball drafts, they happen well before the season starts because the players can contribute for the upcoming season. With baseball, the odds are against one single player getting the call this season. That doesn’t mean fantasy owners, especially those in keeper and dynasty formats, shouldn’t possibly be making some moves depending on their needs.

The biggest key for anyone considering rostering a just drafted player, know your league rules. First, some leagues may not allow the drafted players to be rostered until the next offseason draft. Other leagues don’t allow owning a player until they’ve at least played a minor or major league game. In some other leagues, the players are rosterable this next FAAB period. Each one is unique. Let me start the discussion with the last league type.

Most keeper leagues either have a set player limit (e.g. nine keepers) or a few minor slots. In these leagues, I’d hope owners aren’t desperate for a player to add and have some close-to-the-majors keepers. This draft class does not have any must adds (e.g. Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg) in which FAAB dollars should be used. If an owner’s minor league options are so bad they must pick up a player, make sure it a hitter and don’t spend over $1 for the addition.

Even though Casey Mize is considered by many experts to be the drafts best player, I’ll never roster a pitcher until they get closer to the majors. The injuries and failure rate is too high. If I’m going to wait on a prospect, I want a batter and will piece together a pitching staff. Besides the increased stability of hitters, they make great trade chips for rebuilding teams. Most owners are always looking for cheap. young hitters. An owner might as well roster as many of these desirable trade chips as possible.

The second key is to focus on just the prospect traits which will lead to fantasy production. Previously, I created a simple formula to take a hitter’s scouting grades and formulate a decent roto stat future value.

Fantasy Prospect Grade = 0.292 * Hit Grade + 0.406 * Power Grade + 0.302 * Speed Grade

This initial evaluation doesn’t take position and defense into account. Instead, it focuses on generating fantasy relevant stats. Both defense and position are still a consideration as they help keep the hitter on the field. They are a nice tiebreaker.

Using the above formula and our prospect future grades, here are the hitters ranked by fantasy value using the 20-80 scale. It seems like Jordyn Adams is the clear #1 in potential fantasy value with everyone else’s value leveling off.

 

Drafted Hitter Ranks
Name Position Age Hit Raw Power Speed Overall Fantasy Value
Jordyn Adams CF 18.6 50 60 80 63
Max Marusak CF 18.6 40 60 80 60
Nick Madrigal 2B 21.2 70 45 70 60
Travis Swaggerty CF 20.8 50 60 65 59
Xavier Edwards 2B 18.8 55 45 80 58
Nico Hoerner 2B 21.1 55 50 70 58
Parker Meadows CF 18.6 45 60 65 57
Nick Schnell CF 18.2 50 60 60 57
Kyler Murray CF 20.9 45 55 70 57
Connor Scott CF 18.7 50 55 65 57
Triston Casas 1B 18.4 50 80 30 56
Ryder Green RF 18.1 40 70 50 55
Alec Bohm 3B 21.8 50 70 40 55
Nolan Gorman 3B 18.1 50 70 40 55
DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. CF 21.1 50 55 60 55
Jeremiah Jackson 3B 18.2 55 55 55 55
Jarred Kelenic CF 18.9 60 55 50 55
Zach Watson CF 20.9 45 50 70 55
Trevor Larnach RF 21.3 50 65 45 55
Cadyn Grenier SS 21.6 45 50 70 55
Mike Siani CF 18.9 55 50 60 54
Brennen Davis CF 18.6 40 60 60 54
Tristan Pompey LF 21.2 45 60 55 54
Jordan Groshans 3B 18.6 50 60 50 54
Gage Canning CF 21.1 40 50 70 53
Greyson Jenista RF 21.5 45 65 45 53
Jake McCarthy CF 20.8 50 50 60 53
Brice Turang SS 18.5 50 50 60 53
Osiris Johnson CF 17.6 45 60 50 53
Joe Gray, Jr. RF 18.2 45 60 50 53
Nick Decker RF 18.7 50 60 45 53
Lawrence Butler RF 17.9 55 60 40 53
Alek Thomas CF 18.1 55 45 60 52
Kyle Isbel RF 21.3 50 55 50 52
Noah Naylor 3B 18.3 55 55 45 52
Richie Palacios 2B 21.1 55 40 65 52
Grant Lavigne 1B 18.8 50 65 35 52
Jeremy Eierman 3B 21.7 45 60 45 51
C.J. Willis C 17.9 50 60 40 51
Matt McLain 2B 18.8 60 45 50 51
Tanner Dodson RHP 21.1 40 55 55 51
Jonathan India 3B 21.5 50 55 45 51
Elijah Cabell RF 18.9 40 65 40 50
Charles Mack 2B 18.6 50 50 50 50
Jonathan Ornelas SS 18 50 50 50 50
Anthony Seigler C 19 55 50 45 50
Joey Bart C 21.5 45 60 40 50
Carlos Cortes LF 20.9 45 60 40 50
Griffin Conine RF 20.9 45 60 40 50
Jameson Hannah CF 20.8 50 45 55 49
Grant Little 2B 21.2 55 45 50 49
Steele Walker LF 21.8 45 55 45 49
Terrin Vavra 3B 21.1 50 50 45 48
Tyler Frank 2B 21.4 50 45 50 48
Brandon Dieter SS 18.5 50 45 50 48
Will Banfield C 18.5 40 55 45 48
Nander De Sedas SS 18.9 40 55 45 48
Ryan Jeffers C 21.2 45 55 40 48
Cal Raleigh C 21.5 45 55 40 48
Josh Breaux C 20.7 40 65 30 47
J.T. Schwartz 3B 18.5 50 50 40 47
Kam Guangorena C 18.6 50 50 40 47
Bren Spillane 1B 21.7 45 60 30 47
Seth Beer DH 21.7 40 70 20 46
Blaze Alexander SS 19 40 55 40 46
Jeremy Pena SS 20.7 45 40 55 46
Nick Dunn 2B 21.3 55 50 30 45
Adam Hackenberg C 18.7 45 55 30 45





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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jrogersmember
5 years ago

I really hope Jonathan Ornelas becomes fantasy-relevant someday, just so I can name a team “The Ones Who Walk Away From Ornelas”.

5
TradeDeadlinemember
5 years ago
Reply to  jrogers

How well known is this reference? I happen to get the reference. But is this a well known reference?

A few years ago Andrew Stoeten wrote a blog post about Esmil Rogers called “For Esmil with Love and Squalor” that made me pretty happy but I would think Omelas is even more obscure.

Anyway I would like to be in your fantasy pool.

0