Opening day is finally here!

Draft season is now ending. It is time for our fantasy teams to finally start accumulating statistics (Japan series aside). After the long winter, the excitement of a new season has finally reached its pinnacle.

Now it is time to share my 2019 bold predictions with you. The ATC Projections helped shape some of these. Others come from my own personal analysis on the player, or team situation. The rest arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.

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Yesterday, I identified and discussed 13 starting pitchers the 2019 Pod Projections forecasted a significantly lower ERA than Steamer. Today, I’ll take on the other group — those the Pod Projections are more bearish on than Steamer in ERA. I’ll only discuss those pitchers you truly care about.

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Let’s continue our comparison of the 2019 Pod Projections (last year’s most accurate non-aggregate forecasting system!) and the Steamer projections. Today, we move on to pitchers, where I’ll compare our ERA projections. First, it’s worth noting that Steamer is far more pessimistic on ERA than Pod is, so there are more upside guys than downside. It’s not a big deal for fantasy baseball though, as value is driven by projected stats versus replacement. So whether the league ERA is projected at 11.00 and Chris Sale is at 9.50 or the league is at 4.50 and Sale is at 3.00, it doesn’t make a difference from a valuation perspective.

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I’m headed back from a weekend in New York City after participating in the 15-team Tout Wars mixed auction and a NFBC Main Event league. It was great catching up with everyone and meeting some new faces such as our first president. The weekend didn’t completely consisit of bagels and beers. I had work to do and compiled a couple of teams. Here are my thoughts which other fantasy owners may find helpful.

Pre-weekend thoughts (written before either event).

• Historically the Tout Wars hitter/pitcher split has been a steady 70%/30%. With pitchers being taken earlier and earlier this season, I wonder if this split will change. I’m creating my values with the 70/30 split but know I may need to adjust the split on the fly. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I compared my 2019 Pod Projections to Steamer in the stolen base category, identifying five hitters I was forecasting upside for versus the computer system. Today, I’ll discuss five of the downside guys.

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We continue the 2019 Pod vs Steamer series, moving onto stolen bases. I will use the same process as I did with home runs and identify the guys the Pod Projections (the best non-aggregate projections in 2018!) are forecasting upside for versus the Steamer projections.

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Yesterday, I began comparing my 2019 Pod Projections to Steamer projections. I kicked off this year’s series by comparing our home run per 600 at-bat forecasts, starting with the hitters my projections deemed as having significant upside. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters on the opposite end — those that Steamer is dramatically more bullish in the home run department.

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Welcome to the 2019 Pod vs Steamer series, in which I pit my Pod Projections against Steamer projections in a variety of categories. First, I’ll start with home runs and today will be the upside guys.

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In this series, I have previously uncovered potential undervalued speedsters, power bats, batting average and RBI hitters. To round out the standard fantasy offensive categories, let’s tackle the sluggers who are due to wear out the third base line, en route to crossing the plate this season. Let’s look at some potential high runs scored batters going for a discount at the draft table this year.

In 2018, there were 43 players with least 85 Runs. There were 22 players above the 95 mark, and 9 with 105 runs scored. World Series champion Mookie Betts, and Francisco Lindor led all of baseball with 129 R. Finishing in 3^rd in the runs department with 119 was Colorado outfielder Charlie Blackmon.

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It’s Pod Projections time again, as the 2019 forecasts are now available and its forecasted player population keeps growing! As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

2019 Pod Projection Index
Yusei Kikuchi

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