Yesterday, I shared the history of my xHR/FB rate equation and the first pieces of research on my journey toward developing Version 4.0. Today, I’ll discuss a myriad of correlations for a myriad of metrics and how those calculations helped me determine which would win a spot in my final equation. Fun!
If it’s really true that Chicks Dig the Long Ball, then how do they feel about the nerds trying to figure out who will hit those long balls and how many of them they will hit? As fantasy owners, the home run is the ultimate result of a hitter’s plate appearance. It counts for a homer, obviously, but also a run scored, at least one run batted in, and a 1.000 batting average. Unfortunately, a hitter can’t also steal a base while rounding the bags on his trot home, but contributions in four of five categories in just one plate appearance seems good enough. Because of the value of a home run, accurately projecting them is one of the keys to a fantasy championship. Luckily, I’ve spent six years trying to do just that.
The Middle Infield Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Rick Wolf
Strategy Section
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In 2019, I participated in AL LABR and struggled to stay out of the cellar. Coming out of the auction, I thought I would accumulate too many stolen bases but could trade one of Mallex Smith or Dee Strange-Gordon. I ran into the simple problem, they played themselves out of their jobs. From that point forward, I told myself “I will no longer rely on sh##ty baseball players”. Talent declines during a draft, but I don’t want a core piece of any team demoted to the bench or the minors. I’m going to examine a few hitters drafted in the first 10 rounds and fall into this playing time trap.
Looking back at Smith and Gordon, I should have had an inkling that they’d disappoint. Going into the season, Steamer projected Smith for a .695 OPS and Gordon for a .664. For the 2020 edition of The Process (after the fact research), I researched the production level needed to keep a hitter in a lineup. Depending on the player’s defensive ability and position, the average production level that gets a hitter demoted is between .600 OPS and .650 OPS with the average being around .635 OPS. The following chart shows the chances a player’s in-season OPS may drop to knowing their projected OPS.
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The Starting Pitcher Episode (Part I) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Paul Sporer
Strategy Section
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1/15/21
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2021 STEAMER GEMS
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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of eight more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8).
#523 Bryse Wilson
I’m a little surprised Wilson is being drafted this high (i.e. at all). In 42 career innings over three seasons, he has a 5.91 ERA supported by a 5.3 BB/9. He has been unplayable. I could just go through the plethora of negatives, but instead, I’ll state the few positives (career numbers).
Although the year just flipped to 2021, it’s already Pod Projections time! The 2021 forecasts are not available yet, and it’s looking likely that I’ll have more time to finish them once again, just like last year. So consider this an early preview to whet your appetite, for a hopefully longer season than in 2020, even if we don’t return to a 162 game schedule. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.
I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of the six more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6).
#596 Jaime Barria
Barria is a steady below-average MLB starter who should be streamed in half his starts. Here is what is known about him.
The same upside exists with him with just about every other pitcher. Throw harder. Improve or add a pitch. Ideal pitch mix. Until he shows an improvement, just stream him against weaker opponents.
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Many thanks to Derek Carty of RotoGrinders for his assistance on this article, and for his player notes on a few 2020 player projections.
In my previous article, 2020 Projection Systems Comparison – A Game Theory Approach, I compared several excellent projection systems in terms of fantasy baseball profitability for 2020. It was not the typical statistical comparison, rather – I used a game theory approach. This was the third such annual article that I had put forth in evaluating projection systems.
Earlier this year, Derek Carty unveiled a new version of his already excellent THE BAT projection system. The new system is called, THE BAT X. The major innovation of THE BAT X is that it incorporates Statcast data into the fold. You can read more about THE BAT X works in Carty’s introductory article found here on the pages of FanGraphs.
I have typically evaluated THE BAT within my 2020 Projections comparison. With this season (despite the short duration) as the inaugural run of THE BAT X – Derek asked me to take a deeper look into how his new projection system had performed. To do this, I went back and revisited the same game theory methodology applied to THE BAT X. The initial results look very promising for the young system.
In this article, I will go through what had changed between THE BAT and THE BAT X as far as the game theory simulations. For a few of the largest and most impactful player performance differences, I will also include some analysis from Derek Carty himself as to why THE BAT X made those adjustments. Read the rest of this entry »