The Blue Jays Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Rob Silver

LABR Mixed Auction League Update

Ariel’s Softball League Update

Rob’s Personal History in Fantasy Baseball

All-Star Trivia

Strategy Section

• Waiver Wire
  • Was bidding for Alek Manoah too high?
  • Does standing position matter when making bids?
  • Bidding on a dropped top-50 player.
  • Dropping closers late in-season to burn others’ FAAB.
• Middle Relievers
  • Using middle relievers over 6th/7th starting pitchers in fantasy lineups.
  • Streaming middle relievers
• Richard Rodriguez
  • Is there any action that fatnasy owners should take in the next week?
  • What is the probability that he will accumulate meaningful saves for the rest of the season?
• Bench Slots
  • How to balance your roster with injuries vs. potential closer gambles vs. player streaming.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Closer Situation
  • Julian Merryweather update
• Deadline Trades – Team Needs
  • 3B/OF
• Randal Grichuk
  • Rankings Game – versus:
    • Bryan Reynolds
    • Hunter Renfroe
    • Andrew McCutchen
    • Max Kepler
    • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
• Catcher Situation

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Note: During the All-Star break, at least Paul and I are going to break down pitcher results and they will all be in this article for easy reference. The article will grow throughout the week as more and reports get done. Please submit pitcher recommendations in the comments making sure it’s only actionable pitchers (no Cole’s or Giolito’s).

Background

For those coming back from a two-year submarine tour, here is some background on the current state of the sticky substance ban. Pitchers who use sticky stuff on baseballs create more spin and more spin can lead to more strikeouts for certain pitches. Someone(s) felt it was finally important to start enforcing the rule after decades of turning a blind eye. Here is the time timeline for the crackdown. Read the rest of this entry »

The Fantasy All-Stars Roundtable Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Paul Sporer & Justin Mason (The Sleeper & The Bust)

Injury Guru Trivia of the Week

1st Half Fantasy MVP – Hitters

• Shohei Ohtani
• Cedric Mullins
• Kyle Schwarber
• Jared Walsh

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The Lone Star State Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Kevin Goldstein

Personal history in the business

Texas Rangers

• Potential Trade Candidates
  • Ian Kennedy
• Closer Situation should Kennedy be traded
  • Joely Rodriguez
  • Taylor Hearn
  • Josh Sborz
• Adolis Garcia
  • Where does he rank amongst outfielders in 5×5 roto?
  • Rankings Game
• Dane Dunning
  • Possible innings limit in 2021?
• Rangers Prospects
  • Josh Jung
  • Cole Winn
  • Davis Wendzel

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A whopping eight years ago, I shared the hitter xK% metric I developed using a couple of our plate discipline metrics. It was quite good, using only three variables, but still had a strong R-squared of 0.81. Since then, I haven’t discussed it all that much, but still use it to help formulate my Pod Projections. However, I have actually been using an updated version that I had never shared and it’s even better. The comments on my recent xwOBA articles inspired me to finally reveal the latest and greatest version of the hitter xK% metric.

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The DC Area Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Britt Ghiroli

Personal history in the business

Strategy Section

• 2021 Doubleheaders – Setting fantasy lineups

Sticky Substances

Washington Nationals

• Will the Nationals be buyers or sellers?
  • Potential Trade Candidates
• Closer Situation
• Josh Bell
• Updates on Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg
• Nationals Prospects
  • Cade Cavalli
  • Jackson Rutledge

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Today’s article has been a couple of weeks in the making. I know it came up when one of my co-managers, Fred Zinkie, asked how much a pitcher’s performance changes if they immediately reface the same team. I don’t remember the pitcher or team involved but I didn’t know the answer so I’d find it out. The obvious answer is sure, a pitcher will be worse. It makes sense that the team that just faced him will have some familiarity. Two questions do come up though. First, how much does the pitcher’s performance degrade in the second matchup? Next, if there is a familiarity factor, how long does it take to go away? After examining the data, a small factor exists and quickly disappears.

Simply, this is one of the noisiest, possibly biased studies I’ve ever worked on. First, a starter usually doesn’t see a team right away since schedules have quite a bit of variation in them. This limits the sample size. Second, the data is clumped at five-day multiples because the starters need rest. I begged for a possible solution on Twitter but no solution was found. Even with the limitations, I forged ahead with some workable results. Read the rest of this entry »

The Angels Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jeff Fletcher, Orange County Register

Personal history in the business

Los Angeles Angels

• Who is the Angels MVP to date?
• Can Shohei Ohtani be the American League MVP?
• Jared Walsh
• One Up, One Down
  • Alex Cobb’s resurgence
  • Dylan Bundy’s regression
• Will the Angels be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?
  • Trade deadline needs
• Mike Trout injury update
• Jo Adell
• Other Angels Prospects
  • Brandon Marsh
  • Reid Detmers

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The Yankees Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sweeny Murti, WFAN

Personal history in the business

New York Yankees

• Who has been the Yankees MVP to date?
• Gerrit Cole
• DJ LeMahieu
• Deadline trade needs
• Gleyber Torres
• Giancarlo Stanton / Luis Severino – Injury updates
• How will the Yankees handle innings limits for starting pitchers down the stretch in 2021?
• Is Aaron Boone on the managerial hot set?

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The Rays Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Carney

Personal history in the business

Baseball in 2021

• Effect of fans
• New rules – 3 batter minimum, 7 inning doubleheaders, extra innings

Tampa Bay Rays

• Who is the Athletics MVP to date?
• Tyler Glasnow
• Closer situation
• Ji-Man Choi
• Vidal Brujan / Wander Franco – Timetables

AL East Predictions

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