The Angels Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jeff Fletcher, Orange County Register

Personal history in the business

Los Angeles Angels

• Who is the Angels MVP to date?
• Can Shohei Ohtani be the American League MVP?
• Jared Walsh
• One Up, One Down
  • Alex Cobb’s resurgence
  • Dylan Bundy’s regression
• Will the Angels be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?
  • Trade deadline needs
• Mike Trout injury update
• Jo Adell
• Other Angels Prospects
  • Brandon Marsh
  • Reid Detmers

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The Yankees Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sweeny Murti, WFAN

Personal history in the business

New York Yankees

• Who has been the Yankees MVP to date?
• Gerrit Cole
• DJ LeMahieu
• Deadline trade needs
• Gleyber Torres
• Giancarlo Stanton / Luis Severino – Injury updates
• How will the Yankees handle innings limits for starting pitchers down the stretch in 2021?
• Is Aaron Boone on the managerial hot set?

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The Rays Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Carney

Personal history in the business

Baseball in 2021

• Effect of fans
• New rules – 3 batter minimum, 7 inning doubleheaders, extra innings

Tampa Bay Rays

• Who is the Athletics MVP to date?
• Tyler Glasnow
• Closer situation
• Ji-Man Choi
• Vidal Brujan / Wander Franco – Timetables

AL East Predictions

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The Bay Area Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jessica Kleinschmidt

Personal history in the business

Oakland Athletics

• Chris Bassitt
• Who is the Athletics MVP to date?
• Ramon Laureano Injury Update
• Closer situation
  • Jake Diekman
  • Lou Trivino
• Athletics needs via trading
  • Potential trade candidates (as buyers)
• Athletics Prospects
  • Daulton Jefferies
  • Grant Holmes
  • Nick Allen
  • Logan Davidson
  • Luis Barrera
• Marcus Semien contract thoughts

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The Miami Marlins Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Craig Mish

LABR Mixed Auction Update

Working in the Business & Playing Fantasy Baseball

• Craig Mish Personal History
• Advangates gained for fantasy baseball
• Thoughts on Marlins GM Kim Ng [later in the show]
• Working as a beat reporter in COVID times [later in the show]

Miami Marlins

• Closer situation
  • Yimi Garcia
  • Anthony Bass
• Trade Possibilities as sellers
• Jazz Chisholm Jr. outlook rest of season
  • Rankings game
• Trevor Rogers
  • Innings Limit
• Sixto Sanchez Update
• Marlins Prospects
  • Edward Cabrera
  • Jake Eder
  • Max Meyer

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Today, I’m going to take a stab to answer the simple question:

“Do hitters perform better with regular at-bats?”

While the question is simple, finding an acceptable answer is not so easy. While my final approach is far from “perfect”, it verifies the statement is true to a small extent.

The concept behind the rule-of-thumb is that with regular at-bats, a hitter can get into a groove and perform better. Usually, the idea references a hitter in a platoon.

Besides being in a platoon, he could be in the National League and used primarily as a pinch hitter. Anyone going from mainly being a pinch hitter to a full-time role will no longer occur the pinch hitter penalty.
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The NL Central Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sara Sanchez

Strategy Section

• Injured List roster slots in fantasy baseball
  • Do they add or remove “luck” to the game?
  • Do they take away “decisions” that fantasy owners have to make?
  • Is 2021 different than other seasons with regard to its use?
  • The use of a Limited IL slot for high value / undropable players.

Chicago Cubs

• Closer situation
  • Will Craig Kimbrel still close if traded?
  • Who is next in line for saves?
• Anthony Rizzo & Kris Bryant
  • Contract status
  • Who is more likely to be traded?
  • Who is more likely to be a Cub in 2022?
• Javier Baez outlook rest of season
  • Who would you rather have ROS – Baez or Lindor?
• Kyle Hendricks outlook rest of season
  • HR/FB rates and when FIP differs greatly from xFIP
• Prospects that may have an impact in 2021
  • Keegan Thompson
  • Miguel Amaya
  • Brailyn Marquez
• Underperforming players worth considering in fantasy
  • Ian Happ
  • Joc Pederson
  • Matt Duffy

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Today’s post is brought to you by Vince Velasquez who is schedule to face the Marlins. When I decide which pitchers to target, I look for who is facing some of the weaker offenses and Velasquez popped for being interesting (3.68 ERA, 11.4 K/9) and available. I noticed his 15% K% (5.8 BB/9) and moved on. He broke my simple rule of not rostering a player with a walk rate over 10% BB%. But is 10% the right value? After diving into the numbers, it’s not a bad rule, but I’ll try to shrink that number down.

I use 10% because it’s simple to remember. The equivalent is 3.9 BB/9 which could be rounded up to an even 4.0 BB/9. The deal is that while simple rules help, I’d like to have every advantage. For example, I used to use a 50% GB% to show an advantage. The deal is that between 50% and 55% GB, the pitcher doesn’t gain any advantage in double plays and additional high flyballs (i.e. outs).

The other reason I picked 10% is that only a few pitchers reach this total. Of the 68 qualified starters this season, nine have a walk rate of 10% or higher.
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A while back on Twitter, Razzball’s Rudy Gamble made the following comment in a discussion of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his high groundball rate.

trying to think of any plus power guys that never figured out how to reduce a ton of GBs.

maikel franco is the only one that comes to mind with hosmer a possible second

— Rudy Gamble (@rudygamble) March 1, 2021

Vlad’s career groundball rate in just 900 PA is 50.5% which would rank as the 5th highest of 75 hitters. Over the same sample, his 118.9 mph Max Exit Velocity is the highest. It’s like he’s been blasting holes in the infield. So coming back to Rudy’s comment, will a power hitter, like Vlad, eventually get the ball in the air. While the answer is some, it’s likely not enough to make a difference.
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The Returnee Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jeff Erickson

Strategy Section

• Returning players to active lineups
  • When to return struggling hitters
    • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • When to return struggling pitchers
    • Luis Castillo
  • When to return recovered injured players
  • When to insert prospects
    • Jarred Kelenic
    • Bobby Dalbec
    • Jo Adell
• How to determine when a “hot” waiver wire player is worth a pickup

Cincinnati Reds

• Closer situation
• Nick Castellanos – Where does he rank ROS among outfielders?
• Is Tyler Mahle for real?

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