Archive for Projections

Beat the Shift Podcast – Closer Thoughts for 2022 Drafts

The Closer Thoughts for 2022 Drafts Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

  • Closer thoughts for 2022 drafts
    • Don’t play the waiver wire for 2 closers
    • ‘Safe’ closers
    • Economics of closers in drafts
    • Paying up for closers
    • Relative market pricing vs. absolute market pricing
    • The exaggerated case of zigging and zagging
    • Spreading your closer picks throughout the draft
    • Market premium

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The Argument for Yordan Alvarez

No one doesn’t want Yordan Alvarez. He’ll be a low-third or high-fourth rounder in 2022 redraft leagues. This isn’t a binary buy-sell article on Alvarez in that we all know he’s good. But do we know how good he is?

Yordan Alvarez Career to Date
Season Age PA AVG OBP SLG xSLG ISO wOBA xwOBA wRC+ Barrel% HH%
2019 22 369 .313 .412 .655 .588 .342 .432 .405 176 16.30% 48.40%
2020 23 9 .250 .333 .625 .450 .375 .399 .358 158 0.00% 71.40%
2021 24 598 .277 .346 .531 .570 .253 .369 .389 138 15.90% 54.20%
Total 976 .290 .371 .577 .287 .393 153 15.90% 52.30%

Putting Alvarez’ first 976 PAs into context against other players with 750-plus PAs since 2019:

His SLG% ranks third, behind only Mike Trout and Fernando Tatis Jr. His wRC+ is tied for third. His wOBA ranks sixth. And he ranks seventh among hitters in barrel rate with 600-plus batted ball events.

Alvarez is somewhere in the top-ten among real-life hitters in MLB and will likely be toward the bottom of the top-20 among hitters in ADP. Houston is probably gonna keep getting on base a ton, with or without Carlos Correa, so the hitting in the middle of that order is gonna keep showing a profit. The profit that should make up for virtually no expected steals.

Alvarez has a history of injury, but I don’t really care about 25-year-old DH who just played a full season. Personally, I don’t even equate it.

His walk rate could be higher and strikeout rate is about fine. The team coaches contact, so there is room for growth on both ends. Even if the strikeout rate falls without the wall rate rising, we see in Alvarez’ elite barrel rate that contact is good for our purposes.

Alvarez’ .335 BABIP is really high, but I don’t really give a crap about that because he pulverizes the ball on contact so often. High BABIPs are usually ripe with good fortune, but there is such thing as a high quantity of high-quality contact. I’d bank more on his .369 wOBA in 2021 inches up closer to his .389 xwOBA because his quality of contact is so pure. And the super-raw, extremely early returns are agreeing with me out of the gate.

ATC has Alvarez 2022-projected wOBA at .385. THE BAT X at .382 and Steamer at .379.

Alvarez’ .570 xSLG% was far great than his .529 SLG%. ATC has him projected early at .557 for 2022, THE BAT X has .551, and the more conservative Steamer still has him boosted to .546 — .313-projected BABIP be damned.

Factoring in the bats around Alvarez boosting his run production — Jose Altuve the Everyman, a healthy Alex Bregman, the ageless Yuli Gurriel, the high power of Kyle Tucker, and the perpetual hitting efficiency of Michael Brantley — we should be projecting Alvarez as a top-12 fantasy hitter in redrafts and even higher in dynasty and keeper formats. He’s only turning 25 this season and without defense for fantasy or a speed-dependency on the table, he should age very well.


Beat the Shift Podcast – Projections & Corner Infield Episode w/ Dan Szymborski

The Projections & Corner Infield Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Dan Szymborski

Strategy Section

  • Projections
    • What goes into creating a projection system?
    • ZiPS
      • How does ZiPS set itself apart from other projections?
      • How does ZiPS handle multi-year projections?
      • How does ZiPS deal with free agents?
      • How does ZiPS handle rookies?
      • How does ZiPS handle the possible NL Designated Hitter for 2022?
      • How does ZiPS handle uncertain items (nature of the ball, run environment, sticky substances, etc.)?
      • How does ZiPS take into account positions [Question asked in mailbag]?
      • What is new for 2022?
    • Projecting playing time – Should projection systems attempt to do this?
      • ZiPS DC
      • FanGraphs Depth Charts

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Player Pool & Catcher Episode w/ Todd Zola

The Player Pool & Catcher Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Todd Zola

Todd’s Mastersball Projections

  • What’s new?
  • Assuming a DH in the National League
  • Adjusting for the Camden Yards’ new dimensions
  • Adjusting for the Blue Jays irregular home park in 2021

Strategy Section

  • Player Pool
    • Starting Pitchers
      • Is there more risk at the very top?
      • Is this the year to wait and grab pitchers in the early middle rounds?
    • Closers
      • Where is the value?
      • How many saves do you really need to be competitive?
    • Corner infielders
      • Bargains in the first base position
        • Pass on top talent?
      • The drop in talent at third base
        • How to attack/address the 3B position
    • Middle infielders
      • Do you need to obtain steals from the middle infield position?
      • Setting hotspot values and budgeting for the middle infield
    • Outfielders
      • At what price points should one purchase outfielders?
        • Early, middle, late, or spread them out?
        • The $1 outfielder conundrum
        • The effect of multiple position eligilibity on the OF pool

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2021 Projection Systems Comparison – A Game Theory Approach

Introduction

In 2018, I introduced a game theory approach for comparing baseball projection systems. Proudly, the original article was nominated for Baseball Article of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). Now, just days ahead of the release of the 2022 ATC Projections, the projections comparison article is back for its fourth consecutive year!

The approach used in this article is not the standard projections comparison analysis that most others use. The standard analysis involves calculating least square errors, performing chi-squared tests, or perhaps even hypothesis testing. Some type of statistical measure is used to determine the most accurate projections.

For example, late last year – my fellow RotoGraphs colleague Jeff Zimmerman put out a series of in-depth projection comparison accuracy articles. His study centered around the root mean squared error test applied to all projection sets surveyed. The first installment of this excellent series can be found here.

My methodology does not incorporate a statistical model. Instead, it looks to determine the profitability potential of each projection system by simulating what would have happened in a fantasy auction draft. Instead, it games the projections.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – NFBC Episode w/ Jenny Butler

The NFBC Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jenny Butler

First Pitch Arizona mishaps

Strategy Section

  • Playing in the NFBC
    • What is the NFBC?
    • How Jenny got into the NFBC and how you can get your start
      • Tools that a first time player should use
    • Differences between home leagues and the NFBC
    • Differences between standalone leagues and leagues with an overall prize
    • The value of multi-positional players in the NFBC
    • KDS selection preferences
  • Should we pay the market premium for saves and for speed?
  • Roster Construction
    • General principles
    • Should you create a “Do Not Draft” list?
  • Draft preparation tips
  • Incorporating risk into drafting decisions
  • Jacob deGrom – What to make of the current Steamer IP projection?
  • Power Drafters
    • Should you incorporate a “deGrom share” into your fantasy portfolio?
    • Should you diversify your player selections on your fantasy teams?
  • How to find fantasy baseball sleepers

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2022 Negative BABIP Regression Candidates

Work done by Voros McCracken has shown that a batter’s previous 3-year BABIP is a good predictor for next year’s BABIP, it is known. Here’s a quote from our own glossary:

..changes in BABIP are to be met with caution. If a batter has consistently produced a .310 BABIP and all of a sudden starts a season with a .370 BABIP, you can likely identify this as an instance in which the batter has been lucky unless there has been a significant change in their style of play.

 

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Format Episode w/ Frank Stampfl

The Format Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Frank Stampfl

Tout Wars Congratulations

Strategy Section

  • Drafting Strategy based on fantasy format
    • Rotisserie leagues vs. Head-to-Head Points leagues vs. Head-to-Head Category leagues
      • One win vs. full category score
    • Waiver wire leagues vs. Draft Champion/Draft & Hold Leagues
    • Roto leagues vs. Best ball leagues
    • Trading leagues vs. non-trading leagues
    • Deeper leagues vs. shallow leagues
    • 1-Catcher leagues vs. 2-Catcher leagues
    • Large vs. small bench size
      • Having IL slots vs. no IL slots
    • Daily lineups vs. weekly lineups
    • Overall competition vs. standalone leagues

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Creating Your Rankings? Start with Z-Scores

One of the greatest fantasy tutorials I’ve ever received came in Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell’s, The Process. In the book, there is a breakdown of two very important valuation systems; standing gains points and z-scores. Our auction calculator, for example, is built around z-scores. For a further dive into both, I highly suggest purchasing a copy of the book. In general, z-scores help us understand how good player A is compared to the rest of the draftable player pool and it can be used as a great jumping-off point for your rankings. I use the word “rankings” because they are not projections and that’s the beauty in z-scores. You are not trying to outsmart projections. Instead, you are using a projection system of your choice to create your rankings. In this post, I’ll be creating z-scores for shortstops in 2022 using Steamer projections.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Streaming Episode w/ Michael Simione

The Streaming Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Michael Simione

Joes vs. Pros Congratulations

Strategy Section

  • Streaming Players
    • Definition of streaming
    • Long-term holding of players streamed
    • Streaming hitters
    • Should you stream players in-season from the very beggining?
      • Should you set aside roster spots in your draft for streaming?
  • Streaming Starting Pitchers
    • Advice for first-time players
    • How to determine which starting pitchers to stream
      • What stats to consider?
      • Can you avoid getting “Gombered?”
    • Budgeting FAAB for Streaming
      • How much should you pay per week in FAAB on starting pitcher streamers?
    • How to manage your bench in-season for streamers?
      • How many slots should you allocate?

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