2022 Pod vs Steamer — SB Upside

Today, I continue my Pod Projections vs Steamer battle, this time moving along to stolen bases. Similarly to the way I compared our home run forecasts, I’m going to calculate a PA/SB rate first and then extrapolate that projection over 650 plate appearances so we’re only comparing stolen base projections and playing time forecasts don’t factor in. I’ll begin with the players I’m projecting for more stolen bases, or the upside guys.

Look at that name at the top! Jorge Mateo is certainly a blast from the past. Mateo was at one time a top prospect, bringing blazing speed and power potential. But despite beginning his professional career at just 17 years old all the way back in 2012, he has recorded just 237 MLB PAs, the majority of which didn’t come until last season.

My OBP projection is a bit higher than Steamer’s, and more optimistic than the rest of the systems, driven by a higher BABIP forecast. While Mateo might not enter the season with a starting job, he was used at multiple positions last years, so there are many ways he could earn close to every day playing time. Of course, he’ll likely need to do better than a .291 wOBA to keep a starting job, but the stolen base upside is big.

Never would I imagine I would be more bullish on anything Luis Robert, but here I am, projecting a significantly higher stolen base total. Surprisingly, it’s not because of a higher OBP this time. In fact, my projection is tied with ZiPS for the lowest among all the systems. It’s merely a bet that his stolen base attempt rate bounces back (I am projecting it to slightly more than double) after last year’s disappointing mark.

There’s Adalberto Mondesi, whose appearance here might partially explain why I scooped him up in LABR mixed yet again. Incredible, Steamer is the most bullish on his OBP, and I’m at the bottom, right in the ballpark of THE BAT and THE BAT X. So clearly my higher stolen base forecast has nothing to do with thinking he’ll get on base more often. Even with a career worst stolen base attempt rate, Steamer is still forecasting significantly fewer steals, which is very surprising. Our success rate projections are close enough and only results in the difference of about one steal. Perhaps its model just predict a big dip in stolen base rate at age 26, because I can’t explain it otherwise.

We’re pretty close on Myles Straw’s OBP, so that’s not the explanation for him. It appears as though I’m projecting more of a rebound in his attempt rate, whereas Steamer is weighing his disappointing 2021 more heavily. I still salivate at his minor league numbers. Don’t forget that he was on a 650 PA pace of 39 steals at Triple-A in 2019 and an absurd 76 steals at Double-A and Triple-A in 2018. So he’s had the stolen base juice flowing through his veins in the past.

Sticking with the Indians, is Oscar Mercado a sleeper again?! After another disappointing offensive performance, his chances may be running out to claim a starting job. It’s pretty clear why I’m so much more bullish here — this time I’m more optimistic than everyone on his OBP. That’s due to a better combo of most factors driving his BABIP, a lower strikeout rate, higher walk rate, and better BABIP. It’s pretty clear that things have not worked out in the Majors so far, but I’m still considering his significantly better minor league record. Don’t forget he’s only recorded 813 MLB PAs, which is like a season and a third. That’s far too early to take his performance at face value and ignore his minor league stats.

After a shocking breakout 159 PAs in 2020, Dylan Moore hit his way out of a job last year and is likely to open the season as a reserve for multiple positions. Once again, I’m far more bullish on his OBP than the rest of the systems and ZiPS is the only other that even forecasts an OBP over .300 like I do.

Yet again, it’s all 3 variables contributing to the bullish OBP — lower strikeout rate, higher walk rate and BABIP. My xBABIP equation suggests he was supremely unlucky last year and should have posted a mark just below my 2022 projection. Furthermore, his xBB% has been above 10.5% in two of his three seasons, the two with the larger sample sizes. He underperformed significantly in 2019 and mildly last year, keeping his actual career K% down and confusing the projection systems. Finally, I’m betting on an improvement in strikeout rate, simply because he had been far better in the minors, and this new version of him clearly isn’t cutting it offensively.

After missing most of last season to injury, Nick Madrigal is a bit of a crapshoot. His stolen base attempt rate has been a massive disappointment, so it’s really anyone’s guess whether he’ll start running again like in the minors. From a fantasy perspective, he’s going to have to, or he’ll be at great risk of being a one category contributor in just batting average.

Finally, I’m considering minor league stats again when projecting Dylan Carlson. He attempted 25 steals, succeeding 18 times, back at Double-A in 2019 and his sprint speed is well above the league average. Yet, he attempted just three steals last year. It’s really anyone’s guess whether he’ll run more often, kind of like Madrigal, but the upside is there. So tuck that away, pay for five steals, and hope for nine or more.