Archive for Projections

2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Hitter Projected $ Value, Part 2

Yesterday, I continued my 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X forecasts against Steamer projections in the various fantasy categories, by comparing fantasy value projections and identifying the hitters THE BAT X valued more highly. Let’s now turn to the hitters that Steamer values significantly more than THE BAT X.

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2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Hitter Projected $ Value, Part 1

Over the last couple of weeks, I debuted and published the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X forecasts against Steamer projections in the various fantasy categories. Now let’s combine everything we have reviewed and compare projected dollar value. Really, that’s all we care about as fantasy leaguers! Does THE BAT X think the player is more valuable than Steamer, or not?! So let’s now find out which hitters THE BAT X is projecting to earn a higher value than Steamer. These are the hitters THE BAT X believes to be undervalued, at least compared to someone using Steamer forecasts to draft.

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2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher ERA, Part 4

We finish up our starting pitcher ERA projection comparison, as part of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT against Steamer. Today, I’ll discuss the next six names down on the list of Steamer ERA favorites compared with THE BAT. This is the list of the six pitchers Steamer was most bullish on compared to THE BAT.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – 2023 Pre-Draft Injury Episode

The 2023 Pre-Draft Injury episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

  • Injury Overview / Ortho 101
  • Injury reoccurrences
  • World Baseball Classic injury concerns

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2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher ERA, Part 3

Today, let’s continuing comparing starting pitcher ERA forecasts as part of our 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT against Steamer. This time, I’ll discuss the next six names on each system’s leaderboard. Today, we’ll jump back to THE BAT’s favorites. If you forgot who their top six bullish names were, here’s a refresher.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Relief Pitcher Episode w/ Greg Jewett

The Relief Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Greg Jewett

Strategy Section

  • General closer landscape
  • Optimal closer strategy last year
  • Is a closer who gets a half a year’s worth of saves a successful draft pick?
    • Closers who are traded mid-season
  • General closer draft strategy
    • Is drafting a 2nd round closer cost prohibitive for the rest of your roster?
  • What is the best way to throw a cheap closer dart?
  • Is it worth buying split closer situations?
  • Is it worth skipping out on reliable closers and acquiring saves in-season via FAAB?
  • Should we purchase middle relievers in drafts?

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Ottoneu: These Pitchers Are More Valuable In Points Leagues

Question: What’s the most important thing to remember when drafting in any fantasy baseball league?

Wise-Guy Answer: The type of beer you have on deck.

Wise-Guy’s Friend’s Answer: Making sure you have snacks that don’t grease up your keyboard!

Serious Answer: Your league’s scoring system.

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An Exercise in Injury Impact

Last week I built two hypothetical fantasy teams. The first team, the ATC Swiss-Army Knives, was comprised of players from each of the first ten rounds (12-team) with the lowest ATC IntraSD measurement. The second team, the ATC Scary Single Blades, was built in the opposite way, taking the player in each round with the highest IntraSD. For kicks, I then built a third team that was a healthy mix of the two. Read the rest of this entry »


2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher ERA, Part 2

Yesterday, I moved on to comparing ERA forecasts as part of my 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT against Steamer, discussing the starting pitcher THE BAT was more bullish on. Now let’s switch on over to Steamer’s favorites.

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2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT vs Steamer Starting Pitcher ERA, Part 1

Today, I’ll continue the starting pitcher side of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT against Steamer projections. This time, we’ll hop on over to ERA. This is probably what we all pay most attention to and it’s likely what keeps a pitcher in his team’s rotation. There are a number of drivers of a pitcher’s ERA, such as skills like strikeout and walk rates, along with luck-influenced metrics like BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB rate. So let’s begin by reviewing the starting pitchers that THE BAT is more bullish on for ERA compared to Steamer. It’s important to note that THE BAT’s ERA projections are meaningfully higher than Steamer, so you’ll see smaller differences among its favorites, compared with Steamer’s favorites that will be revealed on Thursday.

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