Category: Projections | Page 11 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Beat the Shift Podcast – Predictions Episode w/ Howard Bender

by Ariel Cohen

March 28, 2025

The Predictions episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Howard Bender

Strategy Section

Early drafting (January/February) vs. Late drafting (March)
- Pros & cons, advantages & disadvantages, differences
- Average draft position (ADP)
Our player shares in the 2025 draft season
- Players we drafted early but not late
- Players we drafted late but not early
- Our most drafted players
- Players we didn’t plan to draft, but did
- Players we planned to draft, but didn’t
FAAB
- What are you looking to accomplish in the first FAAB period?
- How do you evaluate players for the first FAAB period, and early on in the season?
- How much does a player’s hot performance in the opening week influence your FAAB bidding?

Predictions

Bold Predictions
- Player predictions
- Team predictions
- Baseball event predictions
Awards Predictions
- MVP
- Cy Young
- Rookie of the Year
  - Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
Playoff Predictions
- A team unlikely to make the playoffs that will
- A team likely to make the playoffs that won’t
- The worst team in baseball
  - Board bet !!!
- Pennant winners
- World series winner

Injury Update

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 26, 2025

by Jon Becker

March 26, 2025

Here are the most impactful changes to position player playing time projections since March 21st, headlined by some big-name prospects making Opening Day rosters.

Position Player Projected PA Changes, 3/21 to 3/25

Player	Positions	Team	Old PA	New PA	PA Change	Reason
Max Muncy	3B, 2B, SS	ATH	56	322	266	Made Opening Day roster and could stave off Gelof for more PT when he’s back
Cam Smith	RF, 3B	HOU	182	434	252	~~Likelier and likelier to be on the Opening Day roster~~ Officially made it shortly after Jon turned this piece in!
Alan Roden	CF, LF, RF, DH	TOR	203	427	224	Earned Opening Day spot, will have starting job at least until Varsho is back
Rowdy Tellez	DH,1B	SEA	147	350	203	Made Opening Day roster as strong-side platoon DH
Yuli Gurriel	1B	SDP	14	182	168	Made Opening Day roster, should get some DH PA too
Kristian Campbell	2B, DH	BOS	350	518	168	Made Opening Day roster and will be a regular as long as he deserves it
Brandon Lockridge	LF, CF	SDP	42	189	147	Made Opening Day roster; will platoon with Heyward in LF
Cooper Hummel	RF	HOU	14	140	126	Not a sure thing but likelier to be on Opening Day roster than he has been
Isaac Collins	2B	MIL	7	119	112	All but guaranteed of Opening Day spot now, could spell Turang against LHP
Ji Hwan Bae	2B, CF	PIT	42	147	105	Should have Opening Day spot as PR/defense/some starts against righties
Nick Martini	LF, DH, RF	COL	42	133	91	Contract selected, should play vs RHP to start but unsure of where PT will come from when Estrada is healthy
Manuel Margot	CF, LF	DET	56	147	91	Starting CF with Meadows out?
J.C. Escarra	C, DH	NYY	91	182	91	Won backup catcher job
Gavin Sheets	DH, 1B, LF, RF	SDP	238	322	84	Officially on Opening Day roster; will mostly DH against RHP
Bryan Ramos	DH, 3B	CHW	133	217	84	Injuries open up an Opening Day spot
Jordan Beck	LF, RF, DH, CF	COL	420	504	84	Jones trade, Veen demotion opens up even more time
Jake Bauers	1B	MIL	28	105	77	Will be on Opening Day roster barring late addition as PH/occasional Hoskins sub
Jose Iglesias	2B, DH, 3B, SS	SDP	266	336	70	Earned Opening Day spot and should start against LHP
Mark Canha	1B, LF, RF, DH	KCR	154	224	70	Late acquisition from MIL, will play against LHP
Brendan Rodgers	2B	HOU	196	266	70	Not a guarantee to be on roster but could split 2B with Dubón
Sean Bouchard	LF, DH, RF	COL	175	245	70	Jones trade, Veen demotion opens up more PT
Gabriel Arias	2B, 1B, SS, 3B	CLE	266	336	70	Freeman trade makes him the clear 2B until Brito is ready
Zac Veen	LF, RF, CF	COL	224	294	70	Sent down, but should be up sooner than expected coming off strong Spring, Jones trade
Chas McCormick	LF, RF, CF	HOU	413	343	-70	Smith emergence makes PT harder to come by
Jacob Melton	CF	HOU	126	56	-70	With Cam Smith exploding, when will he be a factor?
Alex Jackson	C	NYY	98	21	-77	Lost backup catcher job to Escarra
Joey Loperfido	LF, CF, 1B, RF	TOR	140	63	-77	Will start season in minors, and Roden also being a lefty makes finding PT tough
Connor Joe	LF, DH, 1B, RF	SDP	217	133	-84	Nice Spring but having an option means he’ll start in AAA
Jerar Encarnacion	DH, 1B, LF, RF	SFG	308	224	-84	Broken finger requiring surgery
Luis Campusano	C, DH	SDP	287	203	-84	Lost backup catcher job to Maldonado
Johnathan Rodriguez	LF, DH, RF	CLE	119	28	-91	Jones trade makes future OF PT hard to come by
Orelvis Martinez	DH, 3B, 2B	TOR	245	154	-91	Starting season in minors and if Roden pops, Santander DHes more
Thairo Estrada	2B	COL	518	420	-98	Broken wrist, out 4-8 weeks
Luis Guillorme	2B, 3B, SS	HOU	126	28	-98	Won’t make team but could stick around as depth
DJ Stewart	RF, LF, 1B	PIT	119	21	-98	Won’t make team but could stick around as depth
Tirso Ornelas	LF, DH, RF	SDP	301	203	-98	Optioned to minors but should still factor in at some point
Parker Meadows	CF	DET	497	392	-105	60-day IL with nerve issue
Jon Singleton	DH, 1B	HOU	112	0	-112	Released after not making roster
Will Brennan	RF, CF, LF	CLE	273	154	-119	Sent down after Jones trade
Nelson Velazquez	RF, DH, LF	KCR	133	7	-126	Outrighted off 40-man
Masataka Yoshida	LF, DH	BOS	259	133	-126	With Campbell on the roster, where will he find PA even if he can play OF?
Brandon Drury	2B, 3B, DH, 1B	CHW	336	203	-133	Great spring ruined by fractured thumb
Eguy Rosario	RF, 3B, SS, LF, DH, 2B	SDP	238	35	-203	Won’t make team; out of options
Zack Gelof	2B	ATH	630	364	-266	Hamate injuries don’t cost too much time but they do cost power; might Muncy keep his job when Gelof is back?

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: March 24, 2025

by Jon Becker

March 24, 2025

Below are all of the changes in projected playing time (games started for starters, innings pitched for relievers) for pitchers since our last update on March 19. We learned quite a lot in the last five days, so this is our most robust update yet!

SP Projected GS Changes, 3/19 to 3/24

Pitcher	Team	Old GS	New GS	GS Change	Reason
Matthew Liberatore	STL	3	18	15	Won SP5 job over Matz
Logan Allen	CLE	6	19	13	Won SP5 job over McKenzie
Shane Smith	CHW	6	16	10	Likely SP5 over Bryse Wilson
AJ Smith-Shawver	ATL	13	19	6	Won rotation spot; Anderson traded away
Bryce Elder	ATL	5	10	5	Optioned to minors but Anderson trade opens starts up down the line
Hayden Wesneski	HOU	13	18	5	Stronger hold on SP5 with Luis Garcia setback
Griffin Canning	NYM	13	16	3	Tighter hold on rotation spot with excellent camp
Joey Estes	ATH	16	19	3	Won SP5 over Spence, others
Paul Blackburn	NYM	11	8	-3	Rough camp; will start in bullpen
Kyle Harrison	SFG	16	13	-3	Officially lost SP5 to either Birdsong or Roupp
Andrew Abbott	CIN	24	21	-3	Not injured, but starting on IL as he continues to build up
Joey Cantillo	CLE	16	13	-3	Probably starting out in minors to stay stretched out
Shinnosuke Ogasawara	WSN	10	6	-4	Really bad Spring, starting in AAA
Jared Jones	PIT	28	24	-4	Continued uncertainty as we await word on elbow
Luis L. Ortiz	CLE	23	19	-4	Kept rotation spot but a rough camp means he has a lot to prove
Ian Anderson	LAA	15	10	-5	Likely to spend most of his time as an Angel in the bullpen
Kenta Maeda	DET	8	3	-5	Will start in bullpen; hard to see many starts with Jobe, Mize, eventually Cobb, maybe Montero
Triston McKenzie	CLE	18	13	-5	Starting out in bullpen; velocity is coming back but command hasn’t
Mitch Spence	ATH	19	13	-6	Opening the year in the bullpen
Caden Dana	LAA	13	6	-7	Really bad Spring + Ian Anderson addition means he might need more time than thought to keep developing
Ryan Weathers	MIA	26	19	-7	Starting season on IL (forearm strain)
Luis Garcia	HOU	18	11	-7	Setback in Tommy John recovery
Cade Povich	BAL	18	8	-10	Won SP5, but that’s more than canceled out by Gibson addition
Quinn Mathews	STL	16	6	-10	Six-man rotation, good McGreevy Spring means he’ll be eighth on the depth chart for a bit
Drew Thorpe	CHW	15	0	-15	Tommy John surgery, see you in 2026 🙁

RP Projected IP Changes, 3/19 to 3/24

Pitcher	Team	Old IP	New IP	IP Change	Reason
Matt Bowman	BAL	15	52	37	Contract selected; frontrunner for last bullpen spot
Patrick Murphy	TEX	24	60	36	Dunning on outright waivers, Murphy can provide long relief
Ryan Johnson	LAA	10	44	34	Impressive camp could get him on the roster sooner than later
Hunter Stratton	PIT	15	46	31	Contract selected, should factor in soon if not Opening Day
Ian Anderson	LAA	13	42	29	Likely to spend most of his time as an Angel in the bullpen
Brad Keller	CHC	26	54	28	Not official yet, but should be last reliever to make bullpen
Mitch Spence	ATH	10	38	28	Starting out in the bullpen after entering camp as SP5
Jackson Rutledge	WSN	23	50	27	Converting to relief full-time, likely to make Opening Day roster
Zack Kelly	BOS	26	50	24	Nice Spring Training showing makes him less of an up-and-down option and closer to a stalwart
Sean Newcomb	BOS	14	36	22	Likely to be SP5, move to bullpen after 1-2 of Giolito, Bello, Crawford return
Joel Peguero	SFG	14	34	20	Went from under-the-radar NRI to possible Opening Day reliever, or early call-up
Jonathan Hernández	TBR	26	46	20	Six good Spring appearances have him on the verge of an Opening Day spot
Ryan Gusto	HOU	18	36	18	Haven’t fully committed, but could be in Opening Day bullpen
Steven Matz	STL	22	39	17	Will start out in bullpen, move to rotation April 16
Kevin Kelly	TBR	41	57	16	Vasil trade, Faedo injury opens up PT
Alex Faedo	TBR	57	41	-16	Opening on IL with shoulder discomfort
Sean Hjelle	SFG	66	50	-16	Sent down after entering camp with a great shot at Opening Day bullpen, should be back soon though
Declan Cronin	MIA	67	50	-17	Starting season on IL (hip discomfort)
AJ Smith-Shawver	ATL	46	26	-20	Won last rotation spot, but could still get RP innings when Strider’s healthy
Zach Pop	TOR	56	35	-21	Starting season on IL (elbow discomfort)
Matthew Liberatore	STL	64	40	-24	Made Opening Day rotation; this projected RP IP total could keep going down
Shane Smith	CHW	51	25	-26	Frontrunner for SP5 but could still get some RP innings
Dane Dunning	TEX	60	18	-42	Reportedly on outright waivers after rough Spring

Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 21, 2025

by Jon Becker

March 21, 2025

Below are the latest playing time changes for position players since last Tuesday. We’ve mostly just got some Gavin Sheets– and Alex Verdugo-related shuffling for the Padres and Braves, respectively.

Position Player Projected PA Changes, 3/18 to 3/21

Name	Team	Positions	Old PA	New PA	PA Change	Reason
Alex Verdugo	ATL	RF, LF, CF	FA	126	126	Will start in AAA, probably has to beat Acuña to MLB to get significant PT
Gavin Sheets	SDP	DH, 1B, LF, RF	126	238	112	Contract selected; not guaranteed to make roster but likeliest to be DH vs RHP
José Fermín	STL	2B, SS, 3B, LF	7	98	91	Likeliest to win final bench spot; could spell Gorman against LHP
Alan Roden	TOR	LF, RF, CF	133	203	70	Outplaying all the other OF contenders; Varsho probably IL’ed until he can throw
Jose Iglesias	SDP	2B, DH, SS, 3B	336	266	-70	Sheets addition reduces PA, especially against righties
Jarred Kelenic	ATL	RF, CF, LF	182	112	-70	Verdugo addition cuts into PT

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: March 19, 2025

by Jon Becker

March 19, 2025

Below are the latest playing time changes for pitchers since Monday, with the Patrick Corbin signing further reshuffling projected starts for the Rangers.

SP Projected GS Changes, 3/17 to 3/19

Player	Team	Old GS	New GS	GS Change	Reason
Patrick Corbin	TEX	FA	16	3	Will help cover starts, especially in the first half
Stephen Kolek	SDP	8	11	3	Darvish injury opens up more starts
Adrian Houser	TEX	5	2	-3	Corbin signings eats into PT
Yu Darvish	SDP	29	26	-3	Elbow inflammation, hard to see him ready for Opening Day
Jack Leiter	TEX	23	19	-4	Corbin signings eats into PT; maybe some RP innings later on?
Cody Bradford	TEX	8	3	-5	Corbin signings eats into PT; could relieve when healthy

RP Projected IP Changes, 3/17 to 3/19

Player	Team	Old IP	New IP	IP Change	Reason
Richard Lovelady	TOR	26	55	29	Contract selected; not guaranteed to make roster but he’s out of options os he’s got a good shot
Anderson Pilar	ATL	8	35	27	Perdomo trade, Farmer reassignment makes bullpen spot more plausible for the R5 pick
Luis Garcia	LAD	16	33	17	Contract selected for Tokyo Series, would be odd to DFA him before Opening Day
Nick Hernandez	HOU	44	28	-16	Optioned to minors after bad Spring Training
Blake Walston	ARI	32	0	-32	Tommy John surgery

Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 18, 2025

by Jon Becker

March 18, 2025

Kareem Elgazzar / The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Below are the latest playing time changes for position players since last Friday. The highlight here is a couple Reds developments opening more playing time for Christian Encarnacion-Strand:

Position Player Projected PA Changes, 3/14 to 3/18

Name	Team	Positions	Old PA	New PA	PA Change	Reason
Jose Barrero	STL	SS, 2B, CF	21	105	84	Saggese/Helman optioned; Opening Day spot appears likely
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	CIN	DH, 1B	364	441	77	Benson optioning, Stephenson injury opens up more PA
Gavin Sheets	SDP	1B, DH	56	126	70	Swing change is working wonders, but still battling a slew of hitters for DH/1B time
Masataka Yoshida	BOS	DH, LF	329	259	-70	Could start on IL as he’s still not throwing in games, Devers could eat up DH time
Will Benson	CIN	LF, RF, CF	175	98	-77	Optioned to minors, team already has Fraley, Friedl, maybe Lux as LHH OF
Tyler Stephenson	CIN	DH, 1B, C	525	434	-91	Even the most minor of oblique strains is multiple weeks
Jace Jung	DET	3B	350	245	-105	Optioned to minors, unknown when he’ll work his way back up
Jesús Sánchez	MIA	LF, RF, CF	539	406	-133	Strained oblique could keep him out through April; will he face LHP when he’s back?

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: March 17, 2025

by Jon Becker

March 17, 2025

Below are the latest playing time changes for pitchers since Thursday, with the big development being the Rangers scrambling to fill their rotation after injuries to Jon Gray and Cody Bradford.

SP Projected GS Changes, 3/13 to 3/17

Name	Team	Old GS	New GS	GS Change	Reason
AJ Smith-Shawver	ATL	8	13	5	Great Spring Training could accelerate return to majors if Holmes or Anderson struggle
Jack Leiter	TEX	19	23	4	Jon Gray injury; new pitch mix is working for Leiter but beware of walks
Landen Roupp	SFG	11	15	4	13 Ks in minor league game buttresses strong push for SP5
Michael McGreevy	STL	5	8	3	Just two runs allowed in 11.2 IP, could force team into six-man rotation or early switch to McG
Adrian Houser	TEX	2	5	3	Increased velocity + Gray injury makes him clear SP6, maybe even SP5
Chase Dollander	COL	16	19	3	Gomber injury may hasten MLB debut, stuff looks great; don’t worry too much about his Spring ERA!
Kyle Harrison	SFG	19	16	-3	Velocity is finally ticking back up but running out of time to seize SP5
Jon Gray	TEX	26	19	-7	Broken wrist on comebacker, will be out months

RP Projected IP Changes, 3/13 to 3/17

Name	Team	Old IP	New IP	IP Change	Reason
Omar Cruz	SDP	22	38	16	Optioned to AAA; started last year but best lane to MLB time is relieving
Doug Nikhazy	CLE	56	27	-29	Looked to be in strong position for Opening Day bullpen but then was optioned; being outpitched by Allard
Evan Reifert	WSN	50	13	-37	Horrendous Spring (30.8% BB%) makes R5 pick highly unlikely to make team; would be returned to Rays

Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 14, 2025

by Jon Becker

March 14, 2025

Below are the latest playing time changes (in plate appearances) for position players since Wednesday. Kristian Campbell might be an even bigger factor this year than we thought!

Position Player Projected PA Changes, 3/12 to 3/14

Name	Team	Positions	Old PA	New PA	PA Change	Reason
Victor Scott II	STL	CF	294	434	140	Having a fabulous camp, earning himself starting CF over Siani
Drew Avans	ATH	RF	14	84	70	Quietly solid camp; might be better to give Esteury regular time in AAA
Kristian Campbell	BOS	2B, LF, DH	238	308	70	Turning heads after a slow start; Devers DHing more would open up 2B time. Might not be Opening Day, but soon!
Masataka Yoshida	BOS	DH, LF	399	329	-70	Devers DHing more would take away playing time; still hasn’t played OF this Spring
Michael Siani	STL	CF, RF, LF	259	175	-84	Nightmarish camp that’s the opposite of Scott’s; can be optioned but still has value off bench for defense
Jeff McNeil	NYM	DH, 3B, 1B, 2B, LF	518	427	-91	Oblique strain; unlikely to be back in MLB until late April at best
Joey Gallo	CHW	LF, 1B, RF, DH	168	63	-105	Striking out over 50% of the time in Spring Training; Jankowski MiLB deal pushes him off projected roster

Pitcher Playing Time Changes: March 13, 2025

by Jon Becker

March 13, 2025

Below are the notable pitcher playing time changes in the last 48 hours or so. For further detail on the methodology and more recent changes, my first rundown from Tuesday is here.

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher	Team	3/11 GS	3/13 GS	GS Change	Reason
Stephen Kolek	SDP	3	8	5	Taking to the rotation very well, might have a leg up on Hart
Zebby Matthews	MIN	11	15	4	Could build on brilliant Spring Training and take starts from Paddack or SWR down the line
Landen Roupp	SFG	8	11	3	Separating himself from Kyle Harrison for SP5 (keep an eye on Birdsong, too)
Michael McGreevy	STL	2	5	3	Pitching great, but when will a spot open up for him?
Kyle Hart 하트	SDP	15	11	-4	Could start in bullpen; rainout knocked him out of his first start after 2 IP and he might not have enough time

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Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 12, 2025

by Jon Becker

March 12, 2025

There aren’t many big changes since our first iteration of this series, but knowing that it’s draft time, I’ll be keeping you posted on hitters every other day until the season starts! Here’s the playing time swings of at least 70 plate appearances since Monday.

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