Welcome to the kickoff of our 2017 rankings. We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Mike Podhorzer
• Brad Johnson
• Justin Mason
• Al Melchior

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable.

If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

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The fantasy community is down on Justin Upton. I get it, but it’s a little strange to me given our collective penchant for recency bias. Upton had a monster second half and finished the season an almost-perfect replica of his usual self. (The operative qualifier being “almost.” We’ll get to that in a second.) Sure, it was a rocky year, but hey, Joey Votto had one, too. Dude was batting .213 with a 27 percent strikeout rate (K%) through May…

Right, so Upton was an almost-perfect replica of himself. In a vacuum, his production looks nearly identical to his typical annual accomplishment, down to nearly every statistic except for his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In my investigation of his woes, I noticed his uncharacteristically low infield hit rate (IFH%). Here’s a list of hitters with higher infield hit rates than Justin Upton in 2016:

• Salvador Perez
• Kendrys Morales
• Albert Pujols
• One hundred and thirty five other players not surnamed Ortiz, Mauer, Seager, Granderson, Cabrera, Votto or Kemp

Yes, Upton ranked among the bottom 6 percent of hitters in terms of infield hits. If there’s a single bone to pick about Upton’s season — well, aside from the insane volatility — it’s that his BABIP failed to get back on track, continuing to linger at a league-average mark. It seems a trend has emerged; accordingly, it’s easy to accept said trend as a new normal, as a resignation of Upton’s fifth tool.

I’m here to make the classic* Infield Hit Rate Defense, or IHRD, as it’s known in the infield hit community.**

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Jay Bruce has become a bit of conundrum for the Mets and their almost ludicrously deep corner outfield depth. They have Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce as their starting right fielders, plus Cespedes patrolling left field. Juan Lagares is their lone center fielder, although he’s going to have to wait in line for playing time. Oh, and Brandon Nimmo is waiting on the wings down in AAA.  Of these, Granderson, Conforto, Bruce, and Nimmo are left handed batters, so we’re talking about four left handed corner outfielders. Whether you wish to consider Lagares a starting center fielder or not is a bit irrelevant here, because one of the corner outfielders will, probably, move to center.  Granderson, most likely, perhaps Conforto on occasion.

The Mets took on Bruce’s 13 million dollar option early in the offseason with the clear intent to trade him. Some may claim the Mets held onto him as insurance in case the Mets lost Cespedes to free agency, but that doesn’t appear to hold much water. Without Cespedes, their starting outfield would be Conforto in left, Granderson in center, and Bruce in right.  Three left handed corner outfielders patrolling the outfield.  Granted, the Mets have some flexibility in the infield, since both Walker and Cabrera are switch hitters, but David Wright would be the only dedicated right handed batter in the lineup, an untenable position.  It appears trading Bruce was a focus this off season, which has not gone well and the team has now settled on tentatively naming him the starting right fielder.

Much has been written about the various factors limiting Bruce’s value on the market, ranging from his weak defensive skill to the host of alternatives on the market. I’m not going to get into either of those topics, instead I want to delve into the offensive merit of Jay Bruce, and the various changes to his batted ball profiles over the span of his career. Read the rest of this entry »

Outfield deserved two parts given its depth so we’re diving into part two today. There has been some shifting right around my cutoff point (50th OF) so keep in mind that I’m discussing their average draft slot at the time of writing. In fact, the first guy I’m mentioning today was actually at 52 when I did part one, but he has jumped up to 50.

Previous Editions:

• C/1B
• 2B/SS
• 3B
• OF Pt. 1

OUTFIELD

• Eric Thames (pick 212) returns from an obscenely successful run in Korea during which he averaged 40 HR and 20 SB a year with a .348/.463/.720 line including a 47 HR/40 SB/1.288 OPS season in 2015.
• Projections throughout the industry are very aggressive on Thames with his being the rare case where Fans are lowest on him, but even if he “only” reached their level (.264 AVG/24 HR/6 SB) it’d be a nice season and well worth his average draft cost, though a big spring will cause his price to surge.

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As we continue our tour of the NFBC average draft data by position, I want to reiterate something I may have been unclear about early on: this isn’t a ranking list and as such, not every player will be mentioned. Additionally, every position header after these intros is a link to the ADP data of said position.

Previous Editions:

• C/1B
• 2B/SS
• 3B

OUTFIELD

I have to go two parts on outfield, it’s too robust. I’ll go first 50 today and then the rest in another piece.

• For someone reason Mike Trout (pick 1) has a max pick of 2, meaning he was not taken first in a draft.
• You are trying way too hard if you’re taking any hitter but Trout at #1. I can listen to the Kershaw #1 camp, especially since we’re not going into the season thinking there are upwards of 20 aces like last year.

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By all accounts, Nomar Mazara had a successful major league debut. He spent most of the season as a 21-year-old, and his youth showed at times. Overall, he slashed .266/.320/.419 with 20 home runs in 516 plate appearances. He usually batted first, second, or third, although he did finish the season hitting eighth most days.

Some young players swing out of their shoes with no regard to making contact (ahem, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo). Others, like Mazara, have a more adjustable swing. No matter which type of swing a player possesses, they’re probably prone to being fooled early in their career. As Mazara, Buxton, and others age, they’ll recognize pitches and take better swings. That’s the theory at least – some players simply are what they are.

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In ottoneu, most owners will implement some form of platoon among their outfield spots. While platooning in fantasy baseball is hardly sage advice, ottoneu is a little bit different in that the format specifically lends itself to platooning more than other fantasy platforms. First, you have 40 roster spots. Second, you have 5 OF spots and a 810 game cap at the position. Third, it’s a point format. Because of the 810 cap, you almost need to start a full slate of OF in nearly every game you can, as scheduled off days can make it very difficult to meet the 162 game cap at each of the 5 outfield spots. On top of that, the roster, because of it’s size, allows you to stash prospects or players you plan to use only in specific situations. However, you want to make sure you don’t depend on them too heavily, as scheduling can easily leave you below the cap.

Granted, if you’ve played ottoneu for any amount of time, you already know this. You know that platooning can be an extremely effective strategy. You probably know that strong side platoons are really what you want to acquire (more plate appearances) and you probably have a good idea of a couple names who fit this bill. You are looking for hitters who are likely to get 400+ plate appearance in their platoon role, so as not to be left missing starts with regularity. Today, I want to look at 3 (it’s a new year and I’m feeling generous) players who fit the bill of effective RHP mashers, but at varying costs.

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In his ninth season, Colby Rasmus is set to join his fourth team, as he heads from one warm climate to another. But despite the fact he’ll be switching home parks, he’s still going to be playing in an orange juice box. On Monday, it was reported that he agreed to a one year contract with the Rays. Coming out of Houston, the knee-jerk reaction is that his fantasy potential, whatever there was left of it, is now kaput. But is that really true? Let’s bring on the park factors to find out what a move from playing half his games in Minute Maid Park (MM, Houston) to Tropicana Field (Tampa, errrr, St. Petersburg) may do to his performance.

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I used to read The Economist. This was back when I had the silly notion that I’d use my economics degree in a normal way. For the uninitiated, The Economist is a weekly periodical in which world events are viewed through the lens of economics. Maybe that sounds boring. It’s also the best source of news analysis on the planet. But I digress…

Every week, there was an ad: Invest in Macedonia. The gist of the pitch was this – it’s kind of crap now, but all the peripherals are there for massive growth. As with all investments, there is a tight link between diversity and volatility. Invest in one unit of Macedonia, you get huge risk and reward. Scatter your investments and you’re a little safer.

The Philadelphia Phillies are performing a slow motion pivot towards contention. They are Macedonia. Part of that effort is re-engaging their fan base by improving the product on the field. This has to be carefully balanced against giving young players the space and opportunity to become assets for the team.

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At this early stage of the draft season, David Dahl has become a popular target. He has a knack for hard contact, hits for power, and can swipe a bag or three. Physically, Dahl wasn’t the best or even the 10th best player to debut in 2016. His fantasy ceiling may exceed them all because of a little (big) place called Coors Field. Between the park factors and ridiculous supporting cast, Dahl is well positioned to turn in a monster season.

There’s just one teensy problem, he might get caught in a roster crunch.

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