As we continue our tour of the NFBC average draft data by position, I want to reiterate something I may have been unclear about early on: this isn’t a ranking list and as such, not every player will be mentioned. Additionally, every position header after these intros is a link to the ADP data of said position.

Previous Editions:

• C/1B
• 2B/SS
• 3B

OUTFIELD

I have to go two parts on outfield, it’s too robust. I’ll go first 50 today and then the rest in another piece.

• For someone reason Mike Trout (pick 1) has a max pick of 2, meaning he was not taken first in a draft.
• You are trying way too hard if you’re taking any hitter but Trout at #1. I can listen to the Kershaw #1 camp, especially since we’re not going into the season thinking there are upwards of 20 aces like last year.

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By all accounts, Nomar Mazara had a successful major league debut. He spent most of the season as a 21-year-old, and his youth showed at times. Overall, he slashed .266/.320/.419 with 20 home runs in 516 plate appearances. He usually batted first, second, or third, although he did finish the season hitting eighth most days.

Some young players swing out of their shoes with no regard to making contact (ahem, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo). Others, like Mazara, have a more adjustable swing. No matter which type of swing a player possesses, they’re probably prone to being fooled early in their career. As Mazara, Buxton, and others age, they’ll recognize pitches and take better swings. That’s the theory at least – some players simply are what they are.

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In ottoneu, most owners will implement some form of platoon among their outfield spots. While platooning in fantasy baseball is hardly sage advice, ottoneu is a little bit different in that the format specifically lends itself to platooning more than other fantasy platforms. First, you have 40 roster spots. Second, you have 5 OF spots and a 810 game cap at the position. Third, it’s a point format. Because of the 810 cap, you almost need to start a full slate of OF in nearly every game you can, as scheduled off days can make it very difficult to meet the 162 game cap at each of the 5 outfield spots. On top of that, the roster, because of it’s size, allows you to stash prospects or players you plan to use only in specific situations. However, you want to make sure you don’t depend on them too heavily, as scheduling can easily leave you below the cap.

Granted, if you’ve played ottoneu for any amount of time, you already know this. You know that platooning can be an extremely effective strategy. You probably know that strong side platoons are really what you want to acquire (more plate appearances) and you probably have a good idea of a couple names who fit this bill. You are looking for hitters who are likely to get 400+ plate appearance in their platoon role, so as not to be left missing starts with regularity. Today, I want to look at 3 (it’s a new year and I’m feeling generous) players who fit the bill of effective RHP mashers, but at varying costs.

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In his ninth season, Colby Rasmus is set to join his fourth team, as he heads from one warm climate to another. But despite the fact he’ll be switching home parks, he’s still going to be playing in an orange juice box. On Monday, it was reported that he agreed to a one year contract with the Rays. Coming out of Houston, the knee-jerk reaction is that his fantasy potential, whatever there was left of it, is now kaput. But is that really true? Let’s bring on the park factors to find out what a move from playing half his games in Minute Maid Park (MM, Houston) to Tropicana Field (Tampa, errrr, St. Petersburg) may do to his performance.

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I used to read The Economist. This was back when I had the silly notion that I’d use my economics degree in a normal way. For the uninitiated, The Economist is a weekly periodical in which world events are viewed through the lens of economics. Maybe that sounds boring. It’s also the best source of news analysis on the planet. But I digress…

Every week, there was an ad: Invest in Macedonia. The gist of the pitch was this – it’s kind of crap now, but all the peripherals are there for massive growth. As with all investments, there is a tight link between diversity and volatility. Invest in one unit of Macedonia, you get huge risk and reward. Scatter your investments and you’re a little safer.

The Philadelphia Phillies are performing a slow motion pivot towards contention. They are Macedonia. Part of that effort is re-engaging their fan base by improving the product on the field. This has to be carefully balanced against giving young players the space and opportunity to become assets for the team.

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At this early stage of the draft season, David Dahl has become a popular target. He has a knack for hard contact, hits for power, and can swipe a bag or three. Physically, Dahl wasn’t the best or even the 10th best player to debut in 2016. His fantasy ceiling may exceed them all because of a little (big) place called Coors Field. Between the park factors and ridiculous supporting cast, Dahl is well positioned to turn in a monster season.

There’s just one teensy problem, he might get caught in a roster crunch.

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On Wednesday, we took a look at two 2B who appear very similar while possessing vastly different average salaries throughout the Ottoneu universe. While Kipnis and Forysthe appeared nearly identical in many ways, today I want to look at two outfielders who are similar in several regards, but not nearly as identical as Wednesday’s test-cases.

One of the major differences between today’s Mr. Name Brand and Mr. Generic is their respective ages. Why is this important? If you’ve played Ottoneu (or any dynasty slanted format) for any amount of time, you will likely find that the majority of owners are biased against the aged. While age is typically viewed as a premium, this can be detrimental when pricing comes into play as owners will chase after the shiny, younger, new toys. Given the 10 year age difference between our name brand and generic option, it is likely that these two will never be considered in the same tier.

The $38 price difference across Ottoneu leagues also confirms this – and while age is not the only reason for this price gap – it should help us determine that Mr. Name Brand is priced as if he is one of the most elite players in Ottoneu. While both are power hitters, our name brand option displays otherworldly power, but also strikes 13% more than our generic option. He also had 40 points of BABIP on Mr. Generic. Let’s dig a little deeper.

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On Sunday, it was reported that Matt Holliday signed with the Yankees to presumably be their every day DH. Well, at least until his age rears its head and injuries take their roll. Though perhaps filling the DH role every day will help him remain healthy. Yesterday, Jeff Zimmerman discussed the move and how it could affect Holliday’s fantasy prospects, but I wanted to go a little bit deeper and dive into the park factors. Since the second half of 2009, Holliday has been a St. Louis Cardinal, which calls home one of the worst parks in baseball for right-handed home runs. So let’s compare Busch Stadium to Yankee Stadium and see how the park switch may effect Holliday’s numbers.

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This wasn’t the season newly minted Andrew McCutchen owners had in mind when they rostered him during their 2016 drafts. Not only was he a disappointment in fantasy circles, but also in real baseball, where he easily posted the worst wOBA of his career and failed to muster even 1.0 WAR, finishing at a measly 0.7. His previous low WAR total was 3.4 set during his 2009 rookie season! Check out where he has ranked among outfielders since 2012 according to our dollar values:

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Desmond ranked sixth in our End of Season outfield rankings at $22.10, behind Nelson Cruz and ahead of Mark Trumbo.

No matter how one slices it, Ian Desmond’s bounce-back season was nothing short of tremendous. From a real-life standpoint, it wasn’t Desmond’s most valuable season — though it was among his three or four best — but from a fantasy perspective it’d be hard not to put this among his best.

First of all was the sheer magnitude of the improvement. It’s not often that a 29/30-year-old simply forgets how to play baseball, but it was an ill-timed poor season to be sure for Desmond, who not only turned down a lucrative offer from the Nationals prior to the season, but hit free agency with the ferocity of an indecisive running back hitting the line of scrimmage. Coming off hitting just .233/.290/.384, Desmond’s market was bound to be limited. Doubly so, considering the Nationals still slapped him with a qualifying offer. And while in retrospect it might have made sense for Desmond to accept — a la Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Wieters and Neil Walker — things couldn’t have panned out much better for him.

But the amazing part isn’t only that Desmond raised his wOBA 40-plus points, his batting average by more than 50 points and posted his career-best OBP. He also did it while switching positions, a truly intriguing proposition that would make even the faintest shortstop’s stomach queasy. There’s a quite a bit of value at short as someone who has hit .264/.312/.424 over their career — Desmond’s line coming into 2016 — while in the outfield, that’s….well let’s just say that Matt Joyce just signed a two-year deal for $11 million and he’s a career .242/.341/.429 hitter.

But in the end, Desmond gambled on himself — and won. So did fantasy owners. Can they do so again next season? Let’s investigate. Read the rest of this entry »